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Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
 Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has ignited a debate about the possibility of a global recession—a contraction in global per capita GDP. Drawing on insights gained from previous global recessions, this study presents a systematic analysis of the recent evolution of economic activity and policies, and a model-based assessment of possible near-term macroeconomic outcomes.
Evolution of activity. Consensus forecasts for global growth in 2022 and 2023 have been downgraded significantly since the beginning of the year. Although these forecasts do not point to a global recession in 2022–23, experience from earlier recessions suggests that at least two developments—which either have already materialized in recent months or may be underway—heighten the likelihood of a global recession in the near future. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year, as has happened recently. Second, all previous global recessions coincided with sharp slowdowns or outright recessions in several major economies.
Evolution of policies. Despite the current slowdown in global growth, inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in many countries. To stem risks from persistently high inflation, and in a context of limited fiscal space, many countries are withdrawing monetary and fiscal support. As a result, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening of the past five decades. These policy actions are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually compounding effects could produce larger impacts than intended, both in tightening financial conditions and in steepening the growth slowdown. This synchronous policy tightening contrasts with the policies adopted around the 1975 global recession but is similar to those implemented ahead of the 1982 recession. A major lesson from these two episodes is that making necessary policy adjustments in a timely fashion is essential to containing inflationary pressures and reducing the output costs of policy interventions.
Near-term growth outcomes. Three scenarios for the global economy over 2022-24 are analyzed using a large-scale, cross-country model. The first, baseline scenario, aligns closely with recent consensus forecasts of growth and inflation, as well as market expectations for policy interest rates. However, it implies that the degree of monetary policy tightening currently expected may not be enough to restore low inflation in a timely fashion. The second scenario, sharp downturn, assumes an upward drift in inflation expectations, which triggers additional synchronous monetary policy tightening by major central banks. In this scenario, the global economy would still escape a recession in 2023 but would experience a sharp downturn without restoring low inflation by the end of the forecast horizon. In the third scenario, global recession, additional increases in policy rates would trigger a sharp re-pricing of risk in global financial markets and result in a global recession in 2023. If the ongoing global slowdown turns into a recession, the global economy could end up experiencing large permanent output losses relative to its pre-pandemic trend. This would have severe consequences for the long-term growth prospects of emerging market and developing economies that were already hit hard by the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020.
Policy responses. Policymakers need to navigate a narrow path that requires a comprehensive set of demand- and supply-side measures. On the demand side, monetary policy must be employed consistently to restore, in a timely manner, price stability. Fiscal policy needs to prioritize medium-term debt sustainability while providing targeted support to vulnerable groups. Policymakers need to stand ready to manage the potential spillovers from globally synchronous withdrawal of policies supporting growth. On the supply-side, they need to put in place measures to ease the constraints that confront labor markets, energy markets, and trade networks.
Source: World Bank
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Saturday, 25 March 23
COAL INDIA HAS STRONG CASE TO INCREASE PRICES, TALKS ON: CMD AGRAWAL - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal India (CIL) Chairman and Managing Director Pramod Agrawal said on Monday there is a “strong case” for increasing coal prices, and ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
ASIAN CRUDE PALM OIL WATCH 1Q23 - FITCH RATINGS
Malaysian benchmark crude palm oil (CPO) spot prices have averaged around USD915 per tonne (t) so far in 1Q23, sharply lower than the average of ar ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
INDONESIA’S COAL EXPORT INCREASED BY 21.0% YOY TO 388.4 MLN T IN 2022 - BANCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels. In the f ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
GLOBAL LNG-ASIA SPOT PRICES SLIP AS WEAK NORTHERN DEMAND REMAINS - REUTERS
Asian spot prices of liquefied natural gas (LNG) declined this week, falling to a 21-month low, as weak demand in the northeast Asia region continu ...
Wednesday, 22 March 23
OIL PRICE FALL SPECULATIVE, TO HIT $140 BY YEAR-END -ANDURAND: REUTERS
The recent fall in oil prices due to banking jitters is speculative and oil will hit $140 a barrel by the end of the year, hedge fund manager Pierr ...
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- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Planning Commission, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
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