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Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
 Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has ignited a debate about the possibility of a global recession—a contraction in global per capita GDP. Drawing on insights gained from previous global recessions, this study presents a systematic analysis of the recent evolution of economic activity and policies, and a model-based assessment of possible near-term macroeconomic outcomes.
Evolution of activity. Consensus forecasts for global growth in 2022 and 2023 have been downgraded significantly since the beginning of the year. Although these forecasts do not point to a global recession in 2022–23, experience from earlier recessions suggests that at least two developments—which either have already materialized in recent months or may be underway—heighten the likelihood of a global recession in the near future. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year, as has happened recently. Second, all previous global recessions coincided with sharp slowdowns or outright recessions in several major economies.
Evolution of policies. Despite the current slowdown in global growth, inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in many countries. To stem risks from persistently high inflation, and in a context of limited fiscal space, many countries are withdrawing monetary and fiscal support. As a result, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening of the past five decades. These policy actions are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually compounding effects could produce larger impacts than intended, both in tightening financial conditions and in steepening the growth slowdown. This synchronous policy tightening contrasts with the policies adopted around the 1975 global recession but is similar to those implemented ahead of the 1982 recession. A major lesson from these two episodes is that making necessary policy adjustments in a timely fashion is essential to containing inflationary pressures and reducing the output costs of policy interventions.
Near-term growth outcomes. Three scenarios for the global economy over 2022-24 are analyzed using a large-scale, cross-country model. The first, baseline scenario, aligns closely with recent consensus forecasts of growth and inflation, as well as market expectations for policy interest rates. However, it implies that the degree of monetary policy tightening currently expected may not be enough to restore low inflation in a timely fashion. The second scenario, sharp downturn, assumes an upward drift in inflation expectations, which triggers additional synchronous monetary policy tightening by major central banks. In this scenario, the global economy would still escape a recession in 2023 but would experience a sharp downturn without restoring low inflation by the end of the forecast horizon. In the third scenario, global recession, additional increases in policy rates would trigger a sharp re-pricing of risk in global financial markets and result in a global recession in 2023. If the ongoing global slowdown turns into a recession, the global economy could end up experiencing large permanent output losses relative to its pre-pandemic trend. This would have severe consequences for the long-term growth prospects of emerging market and developing economies that were already hit hard by the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020.
Policy responses. Policymakers need to navigate a narrow path that requires a comprehensive set of demand- and supply-side measures. On the demand side, monetary policy must be employed consistently to restore, in a timely manner, price stability. Fiscal policy needs to prioritize medium-term debt sustainability while providing targeted support to vulnerable groups. Policymakers need to stand ready to manage the potential spillovers from globally synchronous withdrawal of policies supporting growth. On the supply-side, they need to put in place measures to ease the constraints that confront labor markets, energy markets, and trade networks.
Source: World Bank
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Sunday, 16 April 23
CHINA JUGGLES FOUR MAJOR ECONOMIC CHANGES IN 2023 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Change is afoot in China. Economic growth is slowing, while rising political tensions between China and the US, coupled with global supply chain re ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
CHINA'S MARCH COAL IMPORTS JUMP TO 3-YEAR HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal imports surged in March to their highest in any month over the past three years as utilities increased purchases on expectations ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
OPEC KEEPS WORLD OIL DEMAND GROWTH OUTLOOK UNCHANGED
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined in March by $3.43, or 4.2%, m-o-m to average $78.45/b. The ICE Brent first-month contract fell by $4.33, o ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
CHEAPER SPOT LNG PRICES TEMPT SOME ASIAN BUYERS AMID SUPPLY GAINS - REUTERS
Cheaper spot prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) are luring price-sensitive buyers back in Asia, with China and India recording rising imports i ...
Tuesday, 11 April 23
COAL USE CLIMBS WORLDWIDE DESPITE PROMISES TO SLASH IT - AAP
The burning of coal for electricity, cement, steel and other uses went up in 2022 despite global promises to phase down the fuel that is the bigges ...
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- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The University of Queensland
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- White Energy Company Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
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