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Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
 Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has ignited a debate about the possibility of a global recession—a contraction in global per capita GDP. Drawing on insights gained from previous global recessions, this study presents a systematic analysis of the recent evolution of economic activity and policies, and a model-based assessment of possible near-term macroeconomic outcomes.
Evolution of activity. Consensus forecasts for global growth in 2022 and 2023 have been downgraded significantly since the beginning of the year. Although these forecasts do not point to a global recession in 2022–23, experience from earlier recessions suggests that at least two developments—which either have already materialized in recent months or may be underway—heighten the likelihood of a global recession in the near future. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year, as has happened recently. Second, all previous global recessions coincided with sharp slowdowns or outright recessions in several major economies.
Evolution of policies. Despite the current slowdown in global growth, inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in many countries. To stem risks from persistently high inflation, and in a context of limited fiscal space, many countries are withdrawing monetary and fiscal support. As a result, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening of the past five decades. These policy actions are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually compounding effects could produce larger impacts than intended, both in tightening financial conditions and in steepening the growth slowdown. This synchronous policy tightening contrasts with the policies adopted around the 1975 global recession but is similar to those implemented ahead of the 1982 recession. A major lesson from these two episodes is that making necessary policy adjustments in a timely fashion is essential to containing inflationary pressures and reducing the output costs of policy interventions.
Near-term growth outcomes. Three scenarios for the global economy over 2022-24 are analyzed using a large-scale, cross-country model. The first, baseline scenario, aligns closely with recent consensus forecasts of growth and inflation, as well as market expectations for policy interest rates. However, it implies that the degree of monetary policy tightening currently expected may not be enough to restore low inflation in a timely fashion. The second scenario, sharp downturn, assumes an upward drift in inflation expectations, which triggers additional synchronous monetary policy tightening by major central banks. In this scenario, the global economy would still escape a recession in 2023 but would experience a sharp downturn without restoring low inflation by the end of the forecast horizon. In the third scenario, global recession, additional increases in policy rates would trigger a sharp re-pricing of risk in global financial markets and result in a global recession in 2023. If the ongoing global slowdown turns into a recession, the global economy could end up experiencing large permanent output losses relative to its pre-pandemic trend. This would have severe consequences for the long-term growth prospects of emerging market and developing economies that were already hit hard by the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020.
Policy responses. Policymakers need to navigate a narrow path that requires a comprehensive set of demand- and supply-side measures. On the demand side, monetary policy must be employed consistently to restore, in a timely manner, price stability. Fiscal policy needs to prioritize medium-term debt sustainability while providing targeted support to vulnerable groups. Policymakers need to stand ready to manage the potential spillovers from globally synchronous withdrawal of policies supporting growth. On the supply-side, they need to put in place measures to ease the constraints that confront labor markets, energy markets, and trade networks.
Source: World Bank
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Wednesday, 21 June 23
CHINA'S MAY COAL IMPORTS FROM AUSTRALIA RECOVER TO PRE-BAN LEVELS - REUTERS
Australian coal sales to China increased in May, as trade resumed between them even as overall coal demand weakened against an uncertain macroecono ...
Monday, 19 June 23
DROUGHT-DEPLETED HYDROPOWER DRIVES CHINA TO TURN TO COAL - REUTERS
China has leant hard on coal-fired power plants as well as wind and solar generators to make up for a shortfall in hydroelectric generation as a re ...
Monday, 19 June 23
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 4.2 PCT IN MAY - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted steady growth in May, official data showed.
The country produced 390 million tonnes of raw coal ...
Wednesday, 24 May 23
AMMONIA-FUELLED BULK CARRIERS WITHIN FIVE YEARS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Within five years, ships powered by clean ammonia could be a feature on the iron ore trade routes between West Australia and East Asia.
A study ...
Tuesday, 23 May 23
CHINA'S APRIL COAL OUTPUT LEAPS 11% ON YEAR, BUT DEMAND DOWNTURN LOOMS - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output in April jumped 11% from the same month a year earlier, boosted by Beijing’s order to increase supply to ensu ...
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- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The University of Queensland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
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