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Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
 Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has ignited a debate about the possibility of a global recession—a contraction in global per capita GDP. Drawing on insights gained from previous global recessions, this study presents a systematic analysis of the recent evolution of economic activity and policies, and a model-based assessment of possible near-term macroeconomic outcomes.
Evolution of activity. Consensus forecasts for global growth in 2022 and 2023 have been downgraded significantly since the beginning of the year. Although these forecasts do not point to a global recession in 2022–23, experience from earlier recessions suggests that at least two developments—which either have already materialized in recent months or may be underway—heighten the likelihood of a global recession in the near future. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year, as has happened recently. Second, all previous global recessions coincided with sharp slowdowns or outright recessions in several major economies.
Evolution of policies. Despite the current slowdown in global growth, inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in many countries. To stem risks from persistently high inflation, and in a context of limited fiscal space, many countries are withdrawing monetary and fiscal support. As a result, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening of the past five decades. These policy actions are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually compounding effects could produce larger impacts than intended, both in tightening financial conditions and in steepening the growth slowdown. This synchronous policy tightening contrasts with the policies adopted around the 1975 global recession but is similar to those implemented ahead of the 1982 recession. A major lesson from these two episodes is that making necessary policy adjustments in a timely fashion is essential to containing inflationary pressures and reducing the output costs of policy interventions.
Near-term growth outcomes. Three scenarios for the global economy over 2022-24 are analyzed using a large-scale, cross-country model. The first, baseline scenario, aligns closely with recent consensus forecasts of growth and inflation, as well as market expectations for policy interest rates. However, it implies that the degree of monetary policy tightening currently expected may not be enough to restore low inflation in a timely fashion. The second scenario, sharp downturn, assumes an upward drift in inflation expectations, which triggers additional synchronous monetary policy tightening by major central banks. In this scenario, the global economy would still escape a recession in 2023 but would experience a sharp downturn without restoring low inflation by the end of the forecast horizon. In the third scenario, global recession, additional increases in policy rates would trigger a sharp re-pricing of risk in global financial markets and result in a global recession in 2023. If the ongoing global slowdown turns into a recession, the global economy could end up experiencing large permanent output losses relative to its pre-pandemic trend. This would have severe consequences for the long-term growth prospects of emerging market and developing economies that were already hit hard by the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020.
Policy responses. Policymakers need to navigate a narrow path that requires a comprehensive set of demand- and supply-side measures. On the demand side, monetary policy must be employed consistently to restore, in a timely manner, price stability. Fiscal policy needs to prioritize medium-term debt sustainability while providing targeted support to vulnerable groups. Policymakers need to stand ready to manage the potential spillovers from globally synchronous withdrawal of policies supporting growth. On the supply-side, they need to put in place measures to ease the constraints that confront labor markets, energy markets, and trade networks.
Source: World Bank
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Tuesday, 23 May 23
INDIA: COAL OUTPUT UP 8.9%, SUPPLY RISES 11.7% IN APRIL - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
India’s coal production jumped 8.85% to 73.14 million tonne (MT) in April 2023 and the total coal despatch during the month went up 11.66% to ...
Tuesday, 23 May 23
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 4.5 PCT IN APRIL - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in April, official data showed.
The country produced 380 million tonnes of raw ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
NON-OPEC OIL SUPPLY DEVELOPMENT - OPEC
In 2022, non-OPEC supply is estimated to have increased by 1.9 mb/d y-o-y. Out of this, US liquids production increased by 1.2 mb/d, mainly on the ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
GLOBAL COAL TRADE HAS REALLY PICKED UP PACE IN RECENT MONTHS, NOW FULLY BACK TO PRE-COVID LEVELS - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace in recent months, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels. In Jan-Apr 2023, total global seaborne coa ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
India is one of the world's largest coal producers and one of the world's largest importers of coal. The country uses coal mainly for power ...
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Showing 101 to 105 news of total 6871 |
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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