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Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
 Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has ignited a debate about the possibility of a global recession—a contraction in global per capita GDP. Drawing on insights gained from previous global recessions, this study presents a systematic analysis of the recent evolution of economic activity and policies, and a model-based assessment of possible near-term macroeconomic outcomes.
Evolution of activity. Consensus forecasts for global growth in 2022 and 2023 have been downgraded significantly since the beginning of the year. Although these forecasts do not point to a global recession in 2022–23, experience from earlier recessions suggests that at least two developments—which either have already materialized in recent months or may be underway—heighten the likelihood of a global recession in the near future. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year, as has happened recently. Second, all previous global recessions coincided with sharp slowdowns or outright recessions in several major economies.
Evolution of policies. Despite the current slowdown in global growth, inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in many countries. To stem risks from persistently high inflation, and in a context of limited fiscal space, many countries are withdrawing monetary and fiscal support. As a result, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening of the past five decades. These policy actions are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually compounding effects could produce larger impacts than intended, both in tightening financial conditions and in steepening the growth slowdown. This synchronous policy tightening contrasts with the policies adopted around the 1975 global recession but is similar to those implemented ahead of the 1982 recession. A major lesson from these two episodes is that making necessary policy adjustments in a timely fashion is essential to containing inflationary pressures and reducing the output costs of policy interventions.
Near-term growth outcomes. Three scenarios for the global economy over 2022-24 are analyzed using a large-scale, cross-country model. The first, baseline scenario, aligns closely with recent consensus forecasts of growth and inflation, as well as market expectations for policy interest rates. However, it implies that the degree of monetary policy tightening currently expected may not be enough to restore low inflation in a timely fashion. The second scenario, sharp downturn, assumes an upward drift in inflation expectations, which triggers additional synchronous monetary policy tightening by major central banks. In this scenario, the global economy would still escape a recession in 2023 but would experience a sharp downturn without restoring low inflation by the end of the forecast horizon. In the third scenario, global recession, additional increases in policy rates would trigger a sharp re-pricing of risk in global financial markets and result in a global recession in 2023. If the ongoing global slowdown turns into a recession, the global economy could end up experiencing large permanent output losses relative to its pre-pandemic trend. This would have severe consequences for the long-term growth prospects of emerging market and developing economies that were already hit hard by the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020.
Policy responses. Policymakers need to navigate a narrow path that requires a comprehensive set of demand- and supply-side measures. On the demand side, monetary policy must be employed consistently to restore, in a timely manner, price stability. Fiscal policy needs to prioritize medium-term debt sustainability while providing targeted support to vulnerable groups. Policymakers need to stand ready to manage the potential spillovers from globally synchronous withdrawal of policies supporting growth. On the supply-side, they need to put in place measures to ease the constraints that confront labor markets, energy markets, and trade networks.
Source: World Bank
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Tuesday, 11 April 23
OIL RISES ON CHINA STIMULUS EXPECTATIONS, WEAKER DOLLAR - REUTERS
Oil prices rose on Tuesday on expectations of potential economic stimulus by China, healthy demand in the rest of Asia and a drop in U.S. crude sto ...
Sunday, 09 April 23
CHINA’S BUSINESS INCOME REBOUND POINTS TO IMPROVING ECONOMY: OFFICIAL - XINHUA
Chinese businesses have posted a strong rebound in sales revenue since the beginning of this year in the latest signal of an improving economy.
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Sunday, 09 April 23
COAL INDIA TO BOOST SUPPLIES TO INDUSTRIES AS UTILITIES’ INVENTORIES RISE - REUTERS
Coal India Ltd will increase supplies to industries, the world’s largest coal miner said on Wednesday as fuel inventories at utilities run by ...
Thursday, 06 April 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
LNG Current Supply/Demand Dynamics
This year, LNG supply will likely exceed demand, so prices will need to decline to levels that will encourag ...
Sunday, 26 March 23
EUROPE’S RUSH TO LNG COULD TURN INTO 'WORLD’S MOST EXPENSIVE AND UNNECESSARY INSURANCE POLICY'- CNBC
Europe’s rapid buildout of liquefied natural gas infrastructure is on track to far exceed demand by the end of the decade, according to new r ...
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- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
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