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Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
 Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has ignited a debate about the possibility of a global recession—a contraction in global per capita GDP. Drawing on insights gained from previous global recessions, this study presents a systematic analysis of the recent evolution of economic activity and policies, and a model-based assessment of possible near-term macroeconomic outcomes.
Evolution of activity. Consensus forecasts for global growth in 2022 and 2023 have been downgraded significantly since the beginning of the year. Although these forecasts do not point to a global recession in 2022–23, experience from earlier recessions suggests that at least two developments—which either have already materialized in recent months or may be underway—heighten the likelihood of a global recession in the near future. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year, as has happened recently. Second, all previous global recessions coincided with sharp slowdowns or outright recessions in several major economies.
Evolution of policies. Despite the current slowdown in global growth, inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in many countries. To stem risks from persistently high inflation, and in a context of limited fiscal space, many countries are withdrawing monetary and fiscal support. As a result, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening of the past five decades. These policy actions are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually compounding effects could produce larger impacts than intended, both in tightening financial conditions and in steepening the growth slowdown. This synchronous policy tightening contrasts with the policies adopted around the 1975 global recession but is similar to those implemented ahead of the 1982 recession. A major lesson from these two episodes is that making necessary policy adjustments in a timely fashion is essential to containing inflationary pressures and reducing the output costs of policy interventions.
Near-term growth outcomes. Three scenarios for the global economy over 2022-24 are analyzed using a large-scale, cross-country model. The first, baseline scenario, aligns closely with recent consensus forecasts of growth and inflation, as well as market expectations for policy interest rates. However, it implies that the degree of monetary policy tightening currently expected may not be enough to restore low inflation in a timely fashion. The second scenario, sharp downturn, assumes an upward drift in inflation expectations, which triggers additional synchronous monetary policy tightening by major central banks. In this scenario, the global economy would still escape a recession in 2023 but would experience a sharp downturn without restoring low inflation by the end of the forecast horizon. In the third scenario, global recession, additional increases in policy rates would trigger a sharp re-pricing of risk in global financial markets and result in a global recession in 2023. If the ongoing global slowdown turns into a recession, the global economy could end up experiencing large permanent output losses relative to its pre-pandemic trend. This would have severe consequences for the long-term growth prospects of emerging market and developing economies that were already hit hard by the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020.
Policy responses. Policymakers need to navigate a narrow path that requires a comprehensive set of demand- and supply-side measures. On the demand side, monetary policy must be employed consistently to restore, in a timely manner, price stability. Fiscal policy needs to prioritize medium-term debt sustainability while providing targeted support to vulnerable groups. Policymakers need to stand ready to manage the potential spillovers from globally synchronous withdrawal of policies supporting growth. On the supply-side, they need to put in place measures to ease the constraints that confront labor markets, energy markets, and trade networks.
Source: World Bank
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Sunday, 10 September 23
CHINA AUGUST COAL IMPORTS OF 44.3 MLN T HIT RECORD - REUTERS
China, the world’s top coal consumer, imported 44.3 million metric tons of the fuel last month, customs data showed, the highest amount in an ...
Tuesday, 22 August 23
CHINA'S COAL PRODUCTION LOGS STEADY GROWTH IN JANUARY-JULY: XINHUA
China’s output of raw coal went up 3.6 percent year on year in the first seven months of this year, official data showed.
The ...
Sunday, 13 August 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: LNG SUPPLY RISKS LINGER - ING
Energy – OPEC sees deficit over remainder of 2023
Oil prices came under some pressure yesterday with ICE Brent settling a litt ...
Wednesday, 09 August 23
COAL TRADE TO RETURN TO 2019 LEVELS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The International Energy Agency’s mid-year Coal Market Update for 2023 brings both positive and concerning news for the global coal industry. ...
Sunday, 23 July 23
ANALYSIS-INDIA'S COAL MINING BET STUMBLES AS WARY BANKS WEIGH RISING RISKS - REUTERS
India’s drive to ramp up coal output to meet growing energy demand is faltering due to banks’ reluctance to finance newly auctioned min ...
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- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The University of Queensland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
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