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Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
 Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has ignited a debate about the possibility of a global recession—a contraction in global per capita GDP. Drawing on insights gained from previous global recessions, this study presents a systematic analysis of the recent evolution of economic activity and policies, and a model-based assessment of possible near-term macroeconomic outcomes.
Evolution of activity. Consensus forecasts for global growth in 2022 and 2023 have been downgraded significantly since the beginning of the year. Although these forecasts do not point to a global recession in 2022–23, experience from earlier recessions suggests that at least two developments—which either have already materialized in recent months or may be underway—heighten the likelihood of a global recession in the near future. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year, as has happened recently. Second, all previous global recessions coincided with sharp slowdowns or outright recessions in several major economies.
Evolution of policies. Despite the current slowdown in global growth, inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in many countries. To stem risks from persistently high inflation, and in a context of limited fiscal space, many countries are withdrawing monetary and fiscal support. As a result, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening of the past five decades. These policy actions are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually compounding effects could produce larger impacts than intended, both in tightening financial conditions and in steepening the growth slowdown. This synchronous policy tightening contrasts with the policies adopted around the 1975 global recession but is similar to those implemented ahead of the 1982 recession. A major lesson from these two episodes is that making necessary policy adjustments in a timely fashion is essential to containing inflationary pressures and reducing the output costs of policy interventions.
Near-term growth outcomes. Three scenarios for the global economy over 2022-24 are analyzed using a large-scale, cross-country model. The first, baseline scenario, aligns closely with recent consensus forecasts of growth and inflation, as well as market expectations for policy interest rates. However, it implies that the degree of monetary policy tightening currently expected may not be enough to restore low inflation in a timely fashion. The second scenario, sharp downturn, assumes an upward drift in inflation expectations, which triggers additional synchronous monetary policy tightening by major central banks. In this scenario, the global economy would still escape a recession in 2023 but would experience a sharp downturn without restoring low inflation by the end of the forecast horizon. In the third scenario, global recession, additional increases in policy rates would trigger a sharp re-pricing of risk in global financial markets and result in a global recession in 2023. If the ongoing global slowdown turns into a recession, the global economy could end up experiencing large permanent output losses relative to its pre-pandemic trend. This would have severe consequences for the long-term growth prospects of emerging market and developing economies that were already hit hard by the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020.
Policy responses. Policymakers need to navigate a narrow path that requires a comprehensive set of demand- and supply-side measures. On the demand side, monetary policy must be employed consistently to restore, in a timely manner, price stability. Fiscal policy needs to prioritize medium-term debt sustainability while providing targeted support to vulnerable groups. Policymakers need to stand ready to manage the potential spillovers from globally synchronous withdrawal of policies supporting growth. On the supply-side, they need to put in place measures to ease the constraints that confront labor markets, energy markets, and trade networks.
Source: World Bank
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Thursday, 09 November 23
GREEK AND CHINESE COMPANIES OWN 34% OF THE GLOBAL FLEET’S CARGO CAPACITY - BIMCO
“The global fleet of cargo carrying ships consists of around 61,000 ships with a deadweight capacity of about 2,200 million tonnes. The ships ...
Monday, 23 October 23
CHINA SEPT COAL OUTPUT HITS SIX-MONTH HIGH ON RISING POWER DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s September coal output rose 0.4% from August to the highest level since March, official data showed on Wednesday, on rising power dema ...
Monday, 23 October 23
INDIA COAL INVENTORIES DROP AT FASTEST PACE IN TWO YEARS, BOOSTING IMPORTS - REUTERS
Coal inventories at Indian power plants in the first half of October fell at their fastest rate in two years, an analysis of government data showed ...
Tuesday, 19 September 23
LNG SHIPPING STOCKS: THE ASIAN GROWTH UP-INDICES
Last week, the UP World LNG Shipping Index (UPI) gained 3.81 points or 2.51%, closing at 155.85 points. This index tracks the performance of LNG sh ...
Sunday, 10 September 23
GOLDMAN SACHS PREDICTS OIL PRICE TO HIT $100 ON OPEC CUTS - YAHOO FINANCE
Oil supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia could lead to Brent crude jumping as high as $107 a barrel in 2024, Goldman Sachs Commodities Research h ...
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- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
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