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Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
 Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has ignited a debate about the possibility of a global recession—a contraction in global per capita GDP. Drawing on insights gained from previous global recessions, this study presents a systematic analysis of the recent evolution of economic activity and policies, and a model-based assessment of possible near-term macroeconomic outcomes.
Evolution of activity. Consensus forecasts for global growth in 2022 and 2023 have been downgraded significantly since the beginning of the year. Although these forecasts do not point to a global recession in 2022–23, experience from earlier recessions suggests that at least two developments—which either have already materialized in recent months or may be underway—heighten the likelihood of a global recession in the near future. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year, as has happened recently. Second, all previous global recessions coincided with sharp slowdowns or outright recessions in several major economies.
Evolution of policies. Despite the current slowdown in global growth, inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in many countries. To stem risks from persistently high inflation, and in a context of limited fiscal space, many countries are withdrawing monetary and fiscal support. As a result, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening of the past five decades. These policy actions are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually compounding effects could produce larger impacts than intended, both in tightening financial conditions and in steepening the growth slowdown. This synchronous policy tightening contrasts with the policies adopted around the 1975 global recession but is similar to those implemented ahead of the 1982 recession. A major lesson from these two episodes is that making necessary policy adjustments in a timely fashion is essential to containing inflationary pressures and reducing the output costs of policy interventions.
Near-term growth outcomes. Three scenarios for the global economy over 2022-24 are analyzed using a large-scale, cross-country model. The first, baseline scenario, aligns closely with recent consensus forecasts of growth and inflation, as well as market expectations for policy interest rates. However, it implies that the degree of monetary policy tightening currently expected may not be enough to restore low inflation in a timely fashion. The second scenario, sharp downturn, assumes an upward drift in inflation expectations, which triggers additional synchronous monetary policy tightening by major central banks. In this scenario, the global economy would still escape a recession in 2023 but would experience a sharp downturn without restoring low inflation by the end of the forecast horizon. In the third scenario, global recession, additional increases in policy rates would trigger a sharp re-pricing of risk in global financial markets and result in a global recession in 2023. If the ongoing global slowdown turns into a recession, the global economy could end up experiencing large permanent output losses relative to its pre-pandemic trend. This would have severe consequences for the long-term growth prospects of emerging market and developing economies that were already hit hard by the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020.
Policy responses. Policymakers need to navigate a narrow path that requires a comprehensive set of demand- and supply-side measures. On the demand side, monetary policy must be employed consistently to restore, in a timely manner, price stability. Fiscal policy needs to prioritize medium-term debt sustainability while providing targeted support to vulnerable groups. Policymakers need to stand ready to manage the potential spillovers from globally synchronous withdrawal of policies supporting growth. On the supply-side, they need to put in place measures to ease the constraints that confront labor markets, energy markets, and trade networks.
Source: World Bank
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Tuesday, 14 November 23
CHINA'S BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE TURNS AWAY FROM COAL - WOOD MACKENZIE
Ambitious, contentious and big spending, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is 10 years old. In that time, China has splashed more than U ...
Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and ...
Friday, 10 November 23
COAL USE AT U.S. POWER PLANTS CONTINUES DOWNWARD SPIRAL; FULL IMPACT ON MINES TO BE FELT IN 2024 - IEEFA
This year, the use of coal by the U.S.’s power producers has been so anemic that the fuel has not achieved a 20% market share in any month so ...
Friday, 10 November 23
INDIA: NATIONAL COAL INDEX RISES 3.83 POINTS IN SEPTEMBER AMID HIGHER DEMAND - LIVEMINT
The National Coal Index (NCI) rose 3.83 points to 143.91 in September amid growing demand for coal.
The union coal ministry on Tuesd ...
Thursday, 09 November 23
WE'RE PRODUCING TOO MUCH COAL, OIL AND GAS, REPORT SAYS - WSJ
World leaders pledged in 2015 to reduce emissions in a combined effort to limit climate change.
Now they are stepping up production ...
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Showing 76 to 80 news of total 6871 |
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- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
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