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Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
 Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has ignited a debate about the possibility of a global recession—a contraction in global per capita GDP. Drawing on insights gained from previous global recessions, this study presents a systematic analysis of the recent evolution of economic activity and policies, and a model-based assessment of possible near-term macroeconomic outcomes.
Evolution of activity. Consensus forecasts for global growth in 2022 and 2023 have been downgraded significantly since the beginning of the year. Although these forecasts do not point to a global recession in 2022–23, experience from earlier recessions suggests that at least two developments—which either have already materialized in recent months or may be underway—heighten the likelihood of a global recession in the near future. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year, as has happened recently. Second, all previous global recessions coincided with sharp slowdowns or outright recessions in several major economies.
Evolution of policies. Despite the current slowdown in global growth, inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in many countries. To stem risks from persistently high inflation, and in a context of limited fiscal space, many countries are withdrawing monetary and fiscal support. As a result, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening of the past five decades. These policy actions are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually compounding effects could produce larger impacts than intended, both in tightening financial conditions and in steepening the growth slowdown. This synchronous policy tightening contrasts with the policies adopted around the 1975 global recession but is similar to those implemented ahead of the 1982 recession. A major lesson from these two episodes is that making necessary policy adjustments in a timely fashion is essential to containing inflationary pressures and reducing the output costs of policy interventions.
Near-term growth outcomes. Three scenarios for the global economy over 2022-24 are analyzed using a large-scale, cross-country model. The first, baseline scenario, aligns closely with recent consensus forecasts of growth and inflation, as well as market expectations for policy interest rates. However, it implies that the degree of monetary policy tightening currently expected may not be enough to restore low inflation in a timely fashion. The second scenario, sharp downturn, assumes an upward drift in inflation expectations, which triggers additional synchronous monetary policy tightening by major central banks. In this scenario, the global economy would still escape a recession in 2023 but would experience a sharp downturn without restoring low inflation by the end of the forecast horizon. In the third scenario, global recession, additional increases in policy rates would trigger a sharp re-pricing of risk in global financial markets and result in a global recession in 2023. If the ongoing global slowdown turns into a recession, the global economy could end up experiencing large permanent output losses relative to its pre-pandemic trend. This would have severe consequences for the long-term growth prospects of emerging market and developing economies that were already hit hard by the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020.
Policy responses. Policymakers need to navigate a narrow path that requires a comprehensive set of demand- and supply-side measures. On the demand side, monetary policy must be employed consistently to restore, in a timely manner, price stability. Fiscal policy needs to prioritize medium-term debt sustainability while providing targeted support to vulnerable groups. Policymakers need to stand ready to manage the potential spillovers from globally synchronous withdrawal of policies supporting growth. On the supply-side, they need to put in place measures to ease the constraints that confront labor markets, energy markets, and trade networks.
Source: World Bank
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Sunday, 26 February 23
MAWANI AND JEDDAH CHAMBER SIGN AN AGREEMENT TO BUILD INTEGRATED LOGISTICS PARK
Press Release: The Saudi Ports Authority (Mawani) and Jeddah Chamber of Commerce and Industry have today inked an agreement to set up an integrated ...
Saturday, 25 February 23
INDONESIA IS STILL BY FAR THE TOP SUPPLIER OF COAL TO CHINA - BANCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels, said ban ...
Wednesday, 22 February 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The short-term outlook of the global soybean market is currently pivoted by a combination of weather patterns that are affecting the harvest progre ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
OIL UNLIKELY TO BREAK ABOVE $100/BBL THIS YEAR, J.P.MORGAN SAYS –- REUTERS
Brent oil prices are unlikely to breach the $100 a barrel level this year, barring any significant geopolitical drivers, with OPEC+ potentially add ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
CHINA'S COAL PRICES FALL TO 1 YR-LOW, CLOUDING DEMAND AND IMPORT OUTLOOK - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal prices hit their lowest levels in a year this week on rising inventories as domestic mine production is recovering faste ...
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- MS Steel International - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The University of Queensland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ASAPP Information Group - India
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