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Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
 Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has ignited a debate about the possibility of a global recession—a contraction in global per capita GDP. Drawing on insights gained from previous global recessions, this study presents a systematic analysis of the recent evolution of economic activity and policies, and a model-based assessment of possible near-term macroeconomic outcomes.
Evolution of activity. Consensus forecasts for global growth in 2022 and 2023 have been downgraded significantly since the beginning of the year. Although these forecasts do not point to a global recession in 2022–23, experience from earlier recessions suggests that at least two developments—which either have already materialized in recent months or may be underway—heighten the likelihood of a global recession in the near future. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year, as has happened recently. Second, all previous global recessions coincided with sharp slowdowns or outright recessions in several major economies.
Evolution of policies. Despite the current slowdown in global growth, inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in many countries. To stem risks from persistently high inflation, and in a context of limited fiscal space, many countries are withdrawing monetary and fiscal support. As a result, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening of the past five decades. These policy actions are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually compounding effects could produce larger impacts than intended, both in tightening financial conditions and in steepening the growth slowdown. This synchronous policy tightening contrasts with the policies adopted around the 1975 global recession but is similar to those implemented ahead of the 1982 recession. A major lesson from these two episodes is that making necessary policy adjustments in a timely fashion is essential to containing inflationary pressures and reducing the output costs of policy interventions.
Near-term growth outcomes. Three scenarios for the global economy over 2022-24 are analyzed using a large-scale, cross-country model. The first, baseline scenario, aligns closely with recent consensus forecasts of growth and inflation, as well as market expectations for policy interest rates. However, it implies that the degree of monetary policy tightening currently expected may not be enough to restore low inflation in a timely fashion. The second scenario, sharp downturn, assumes an upward drift in inflation expectations, which triggers additional synchronous monetary policy tightening by major central banks. In this scenario, the global economy would still escape a recession in 2023 but would experience a sharp downturn without restoring low inflation by the end of the forecast horizon. In the third scenario, global recession, additional increases in policy rates would trigger a sharp re-pricing of risk in global financial markets and result in a global recession in 2023. If the ongoing global slowdown turns into a recession, the global economy could end up experiencing large permanent output losses relative to its pre-pandemic trend. This would have severe consequences for the long-term growth prospects of emerging market and developing economies that were already hit hard by the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020.
Policy responses. Policymakers need to navigate a narrow path that requires a comprehensive set of demand- and supply-side measures. On the demand side, monetary policy must be employed consistently to restore, in a timely manner, price stability. Fiscal policy needs to prioritize medium-term debt sustainability while providing targeted support to vulnerable groups. Policymakers need to stand ready to manage the potential spillovers from globally synchronous withdrawal of policies supporting growth. On the supply-side, they need to put in place measures to ease the constraints that confront labor markets, energy markets, and trade networks.
Source: World Bank
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Thursday, 26 January 23
AUSTRALIA'S CORONADO GLOBAL SEES COAL PRICES RISING ON RESUMING CHINA IMPORTS - REUTERS
Australia’s Coronado Global Resources said on Tuesday resuming metallurgical coal imports to China would likely push sea-borne coal prices hi ...
Monday, 23 January 23
CHINA'S MAJOR COAL-PRODUCING PROVINCE ACCELERATES DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION - XINHUA
At Chindata Group’s big-data industrial park in Lingqiu County of Datong City, hundreds of thousands of servers are running round-the-clock t ...
Monday, 23 January 23
CHINA'S COAL-RICH PROVINCE SEES COAL PRODUCTION INCREASE IN 2022 - XINHUA
North China’s coal-rich province of Shanxi saw its coal production hit 1.31 billion tonnes in 2022, up 8.7 percent year on year, local author ...
Wednesday, 18 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
From Feb 5, another price cap will be introduced to Russian fuels and oil products, adding to the one for crude oil, already in place from Dec. 3. ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
FRAUD IS THE BIGGEST THREAT TO CARGO LOSSES - TT CLUB
The almost exclusive use of online facilities to process business transactions allows a myriad of fraudulent pursuits to find opportunities within ...
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- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Coal Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
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