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Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
 Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has ignited a debate about the possibility of a global recession—a contraction in global per capita GDP. Drawing on insights gained from previous global recessions, this study presents a systematic analysis of the recent evolution of economic activity and policies, and a model-based assessment of possible near-term macroeconomic outcomes.
Evolution of activity. Consensus forecasts for global growth in 2022 and 2023 have been downgraded significantly since the beginning of the year. Although these forecasts do not point to a global recession in 2022–23, experience from earlier recessions suggests that at least two developments—which either have already materialized in recent months or may be underway—heighten the likelihood of a global recession in the near future. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year, as has happened recently. Second, all previous global recessions coincided with sharp slowdowns or outright recessions in several major economies.
Evolution of policies. Despite the current slowdown in global growth, inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in many countries. To stem risks from persistently high inflation, and in a context of limited fiscal space, many countries are withdrawing monetary and fiscal support. As a result, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening of the past five decades. These policy actions are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually compounding effects could produce larger impacts than intended, both in tightening financial conditions and in steepening the growth slowdown. This synchronous policy tightening contrasts with the policies adopted around the 1975 global recession but is similar to those implemented ahead of the 1982 recession. A major lesson from these two episodes is that making necessary policy adjustments in a timely fashion is essential to containing inflationary pressures and reducing the output costs of policy interventions.
Near-term growth outcomes. Three scenarios for the global economy over 2022-24 are analyzed using a large-scale, cross-country model. The first, baseline scenario, aligns closely with recent consensus forecasts of growth and inflation, as well as market expectations for policy interest rates. However, it implies that the degree of monetary policy tightening currently expected may not be enough to restore low inflation in a timely fashion. The second scenario, sharp downturn, assumes an upward drift in inflation expectations, which triggers additional synchronous monetary policy tightening by major central banks. In this scenario, the global economy would still escape a recession in 2023 but would experience a sharp downturn without restoring low inflation by the end of the forecast horizon. In the third scenario, global recession, additional increases in policy rates would trigger a sharp re-pricing of risk in global financial markets and result in a global recession in 2023. If the ongoing global slowdown turns into a recession, the global economy could end up experiencing large permanent output losses relative to its pre-pandemic trend. This would have severe consequences for the long-term growth prospects of emerging market and developing economies that were already hit hard by the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020.
Policy responses. Policymakers need to navigate a narrow path that requires a comprehensive set of demand- and supply-side measures. On the demand side, monetary policy must be employed consistently to restore, in a timely manner, price stability. Fiscal policy needs to prioritize medium-term debt sustainability while providing targeted support to vulnerable groups. Policymakers need to stand ready to manage the potential spillovers from globally synchronous withdrawal of policies supporting growth. On the supply-side, they need to put in place measures to ease the constraints that confront labor markets, energy markets, and trade networks.
Source: World Bank
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Friday, 02 December 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE PLUNGE TOWARD US$ 281.48 A TON AS DEMAND DROPS WORLDWIDE
COALspot.com: The cost of coal is falling so fast that it is beginning to put real money back in the pockets of end-users.
Indonesia ...
Wednesday, 30 November 22
INDONESIA’S BUMI RESOURCES TARGETS 2023 COAL OUTPUT OF 80 MLN TONNES - REUTERS
Indonesian coal miner PT Bumi Resources Tbk BUMI.JKis eyeing a 10% increase in output to 80 million tonnes next year amid expectations for more fav ...
Wednesday, 30 November 22
TANKERS: LONGER HAULS TO SUPPORT CONTINUED STRENGTH - BIMCO
Highlights
A rebound in the dirty tanker trade has led the Baltic Exchange Dirty Index (BDTI) to increase by 64% since our last report from mid ...
Wednesday, 30 November 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Shipping, although a conservative and innovation adverse industry, is currently in a transition period of digital transformation. According to a su ...
Tuesday, 29 November 22
INDIA TO RECEIVE FIRST LNG CARGO FROM INDONESIA’S TANGGUH LNG - REUTERS
India will receive its first cargo from Indonesia’s Tangguh liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant at the Dahej terminal on Monday, according to a ...
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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