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Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
 Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has ignited a debate about the possibility of a global recession—a contraction in global per capita GDP. Drawing on insights gained from previous global recessions, this study presents a systematic analysis of the recent evolution of economic activity and policies, and a model-based assessment of possible near-term macroeconomic outcomes.
Evolution of activity. Consensus forecasts for global growth in 2022 and 2023 have been downgraded significantly since the beginning of the year. Although these forecasts do not point to a global recession in 2022–23, experience from earlier recessions suggests that at least two developments—which either have already materialized in recent months or may be underway—heighten the likelihood of a global recession in the near future. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year, as has happened recently. Second, all previous global recessions coincided with sharp slowdowns or outright recessions in several major economies.
Evolution of policies. Despite the current slowdown in global growth, inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in many countries. To stem risks from persistently high inflation, and in a context of limited fiscal space, many countries are withdrawing monetary and fiscal support. As a result, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening of the past five decades. These policy actions are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually compounding effects could produce larger impacts than intended, both in tightening financial conditions and in steepening the growth slowdown. This synchronous policy tightening contrasts with the policies adopted around the 1975 global recession but is similar to those implemented ahead of the 1982 recession. A major lesson from these two episodes is that making necessary policy adjustments in a timely fashion is essential to containing inflationary pressures and reducing the output costs of policy interventions.
Near-term growth outcomes. Three scenarios for the global economy over 2022-24 are analyzed using a large-scale, cross-country model. The first, baseline scenario, aligns closely with recent consensus forecasts of growth and inflation, as well as market expectations for policy interest rates. However, it implies that the degree of monetary policy tightening currently expected may not be enough to restore low inflation in a timely fashion. The second scenario, sharp downturn, assumes an upward drift in inflation expectations, which triggers additional synchronous monetary policy tightening by major central banks. In this scenario, the global economy would still escape a recession in 2023 but would experience a sharp downturn without restoring low inflation by the end of the forecast horizon. In the third scenario, global recession, additional increases in policy rates would trigger a sharp re-pricing of risk in global financial markets and result in a global recession in 2023. If the ongoing global slowdown turns into a recession, the global economy could end up experiencing large permanent output losses relative to its pre-pandemic trend. This would have severe consequences for the long-term growth prospects of emerging market and developing economies that were already hit hard by the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020.
Policy responses. Policymakers need to navigate a narrow path that requires a comprehensive set of demand- and supply-side measures. On the demand side, monetary policy must be employed consistently to restore, in a timely manner, price stability. Fiscal policy needs to prioritize medium-term debt sustainability while providing targeted support to vulnerable groups. Policymakers need to stand ready to manage the potential spillovers from globally synchronous withdrawal of policies supporting growth. On the supply-side, they need to put in place measures to ease the constraints that confront labor markets, energy markets, and trade networks.
Source: World Bank
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Monday, 31 October 22
U.S. COAL-FIRED GENERATION DECLINING AFTER BRIEF RISE LAST YEAR - EIA
We expect 6% less U.S. coal-fired generation in 2022 than in 2021, according to our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Although coal-fired ge ...
Monday, 31 October 22
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 12.3 PCT IN SEPTEMBER - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in September, official data showed.
The country produced 390 million tonnes of ...
Wednesday, 26 October 22
BIMCO PUBLISHES UPDATED GENCON CONTRACT
BIMCO has published a revised and updated version GENCON 2022 – one of its flagship contracts within its portfolio of standard contracts for ...
Monday, 24 October 22
KOSPO TO INVITE 400,000 MT OF COAL FOR 3 YEARS
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an international tender for 400,000 MT of 3,800 - 4,400kcal/kg NCV and Sulfur Max 0 ...
Wednesday, 19 October 22
ASIA COULD BE A BRIGHT SPOT AMID GLOBAL DOWNTURN NEXT YEAR, ECONOMISTS SAY - CNBC
Asia — especially Southeast Asia — remains a bright spot, even as the global economy looks set to head into recession next year, econom ...
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
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