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Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
 Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has ignited a debate about the possibility of a global recession—a contraction in global per capita GDP. Drawing on insights gained from previous global recessions, this study presents a systematic analysis of the recent evolution of economic activity and policies, and a model-based assessment of possible near-term macroeconomic outcomes.
Evolution of activity. Consensus forecasts for global growth in 2022 and 2023 have been downgraded significantly since the beginning of the year. Although these forecasts do not point to a global recession in 2022–23, experience from earlier recessions suggests that at least two developments—which either have already materialized in recent months or may be underway—heighten the likelihood of a global recession in the near future. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year, as has happened recently. Second, all previous global recessions coincided with sharp slowdowns or outright recessions in several major economies.
Evolution of policies. Despite the current slowdown in global growth, inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in many countries. To stem risks from persistently high inflation, and in a context of limited fiscal space, many countries are withdrawing monetary and fiscal support. As a result, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening of the past five decades. These policy actions are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually compounding effects could produce larger impacts than intended, both in tightening financial conditions and in steepening the growth slowdown. This synchronous policy tightening contrasts with the policies adopted around the 1975 global recession but is similar to those implemented ahead of the 1982 recession. A major lesson from these two episodes is that making necessary policy adjustments in a timely fashion is essential to containing inflationary pressures and reducing the output costs of policy interventions.
Near-term growth outcomes. Three scenarios for the global economy over 2022-24 are analyzed using a large-scale, cross-country model. The first, baseline scenario, aligns closely with recent consensus forecasts of growth and inflation, as well as market expectations for policy interest rates. However, it implies that the degree of monetary policy tightening currently expected may not be enough to restore low inflation in a timely fashion. The second scenario, sharp downturn, assumes an upward drift in inflation expectations, which triggers additional synchronous monetary policy tightening by major central banks. In this scenario, the global economy would still escape a recession in 2023 but would experience a sharp downturn without restoring low inflation by the end of the forecast horizon. In the third scenario, global recession, additional increases in policy rates would trigger a sharp re-pricing of risk in global financial markets and result in a global recession in 2023. If the ongoing global slowdown turns into a recession, the global economy could end up experiencing large permanent output losses relative to its pre-pandemic trend. This would have severe consequences for the long-term growth prospects of emerging market and developing economies that were already hit hard by the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020.
Policy responses. Policymakers need to navigate a narrow path that requires a comprehensive set of demand- and supply-side measures. On the demand side, monetary policy must be employed consistently to restore, in a timely manner, price stability. Fiscal policy needs to prioritize medium-term debt sustainability while providing targeted support to vulnerable groups. Policymakers need to stand ready to manage the potential spillovers from globally synchronous withdrawal of policies supporting growth. On the supply-side, they need to put in place measures to ease the constraints that confront labor markets, energy markets, and trade networks.
Source: World Bank
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Thursday, 06 October 22
COAL INDIA ASKED TO ENHANCE SUPPLY TO THERMAL POWER PLANTS - IANS
With the festival season round the corner, Coal India Ltd. has been directed by the government to scale up dispatch to thermal power plants.
&n ...
Wednesday, 05 October 22
BUNKER PRICES DOWN AGAIN; IS THERE MORE TO COME? - INTEGR8 FUELS
It’s the economy…..”
VLSFO prices are now back to levels at the start of this year. After all the extremes of thi ...
Wednesday, 05 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Amid the looming western sanctions on Russia, the country is challenged to pivot its energy markets away from Europe and toward the East. Yet, Russ ...
Tuesday, 04 October 22
A REMARKABLE SHIFT IN FORTUNES HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE CRUDE OIL TANKER MARKETS - ALLIED SHIPPING
A remarkable shift in fortunes has been noted in the crude oil tanker markets over the past month, yet despite these shifts being seemingly in thei ...
Tuesday, 04 October 22
OIL PRICES COULD SOON RETURN TO $100 AS OPEC+ CONSIDERS ‘HISTORIC’ CUT, ANALYSTS SAY - CNBC
An influential alliance of some of the world’s most powerful oil producers is reportedly considering their largest output cut since the start ...
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- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Coal Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
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