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Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
 Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has ignited a debate about the possibility of a global recession—a contraction in global per capita GDP. Drawing on insights gained from previous global recessions, this study presents a systematic analysis of the recent evolution of economic activity and policies, and a model-based assessment of possible near-term macroeconomic outcomes.
Evolution of activity. Consensus forecasts for global growth in 2022 and 2023 have been downgraded significantly since the beginning of the year. Although these forecasts do not point to a global recession in 2022–23, experience from earlier recessions suggests that at least two developments—which either have already materialized in recent months or may be underway—heighten the likelihood of a global recession in the near future. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year, as has happened recently. Second, all previous global recessions coincided with sharp slowdowns or outright recessions in several major economies.
Evolution of policies. Despite the current slowdown in global growth, inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in many countries. To stem risks from persistently high inflation, and in a context of limited fiscal space, many countries are withdrawing monetary and fiscal support. As a result, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening of the past five decades. These policy actions are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually compounding effects could produce larger impacts than intended, both in tightening financial conditions and in steepening the growth slowdown. This synchronous policy tightening contrasts with the policies adopted around the 1975 global recession but is similar to those implemented ahead of the 1982 recession. A major lesson from these two episodes is that making necessary policy adjustments in a timely fashion is essential to containing inflationary pressures and reducing the output costs of policy interventions.
Near-term growth outcomes. Three scenarios for the global economy over 2022-24 are analyzed using a large-scale, cross-country model. The first, baseline scenario, aligns closely with recent consensus forecasts of growth and inflation, as well as market expectations for policy interest rates. However, it implies that the degree of monetary policy tightening currently expected may not be enough to restore low inflation in a timely fashion. The second scenario, sharp downturn, assumes an upward drift in inflation expectations, which triggers additional synchronous monetary policy tightening by major central banks. In this scenario, the global economy would still escape a recession in 2023 but would experience a sharp downturn without restoring low inflation by the end of the forecast horizon. In the third scenario, global recession, additional increases in policy rates would trigger a sharp re-pricing of risk in global financial markets and result in a global recession in 2023. If the ongoing global slowdown turns into a recession, the global economy could end up experiencing large permanent output losses relative to its pre-pandemic trend. This would have severe consequences for the long-term growth prospects of emerging market and developing economies that were already hit hard by the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020.
Policy responses. Policymakers need to navigate a narrow path that requires a comprehensive set of demand- and supply-side measures. On the demand side, monetary policy must be employed consistently to restore, in a timely manner, price stability. Fiscal policy needs to prioritize medium-term debt sustainability while providing targeted support to vulnerable groups. Policymakers need to stand ready to manage the potential spillovers from globally synchronous withdrawal of policies supporting growth. On the supply-side, they need to put in place measures to ease the constraints that confront labor markets, energy markets, and trade networks.
Source: World Bank
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Saturday, 20 August 22
KOSPO TO IMPORT 240000 MT OF MIN 4400 KCAL/KG NCV STEAM COAL FOR OCTOBER;LOADING FROM RUSSIAN PORTS NOT ALLOWED
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for 240,000 MT of min 4,400kcal/kg to max. 4,999 kcal/kg NC ...
Wednesday, 17 August 22
INDIAN COMPANIES SWAPPING DOLLAR FOR ASIAN CURRENCIES TO BUY RUSSIAN COAL - REUTERS
Indian companies are using Asian currencies more often to pay for Russian coal imports, according to customs documents and industry sources, avoidi ...
Wednesday, 17 August 22
LNG: MAJOR INVESTMENT AND EXPANSION PHASE, DOUBLING OF LIQUEFACTION CAPACITY BY 2028 PROJECTED - CLARKSONS
Clarksons Research have released the latest version of their long standing annual review, LNG Trade & Transport, on to Shipping Intelligence Ne ...
Wednesday, 17 August 22
UNAFFORDABLE LNG PRICES UNDERMINE RAPID DEMAND GROWTH FORECASTS IN KEY ASIAN MARKETS - IEEFA
Sustained high prices may accelerate downward pressures on Asian LNG demand, clouding long-term industry outlooks
The global liquefi ...
Wednesday, 17 August 22
CHINA'S COAL-RICH SHANXI MAKES STRIDES IN HIGH-QUALITY DEVELOPMENT - XINHUA
Shanxi, a major coal-producing province in north China, has made continuous advances in high-quality development over the past decade, according to ...
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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