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Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
 Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has ignited a debate about the possibility of a global recession—a contraction in global per capita GDP. Drawing on insights gained from previous global recessions, this study presents a systematic analysis of the recent evolution of economic activity and policies, and a model-based assessment of possible near-term macroeconomic outcomes.
Evolution of activity. Consensus forecasts for global growth in 2022 and 2023 have been downgraded significantly since the beginning of the year. Although these forecasts do not point to a global recession in 2022–23, experience from earlier recessions suggests that at least two developments—which either have already materialized in recent months or may be underway—heighten the likelihood of a global recession in the near future. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year, as has happened recently. Second, all previous global recessions coincided with sharp slowdowns or outright recessions in several major economies.
Evolution of policies. Despite the current slowdown in global growth, inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in many countries. To stem risks from persistently high inflation, and in a context of limited fiscal space, many countries are withdrawing monetary and fiscal support. As a result, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening of the past five decades. These policy actions are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually compounding effects could produce larger impacts than intended, both in tightening financial conditions and in steepening the growth slowdown. This synchronous policy tightening contrasts with the policies adopted around the 1975 global recession but is similar to those implemented ahead of the 1982 recession. A major lesson from these two episodes is that making necessary policy adjustments in a timely fashion is essential to containing inflationary pressures and reducing the output costs of policy interventions.
Near-term growth outcomes. Three scenarios for the global economy over 2022-24 are analyzed using a large-scale, cross-country model. The first, baseline scenario, aligns closely with recent consensus forecasts of growth and inflation, as well as market expectations for policy interest rates. However, it implies that the degree of monetary policy tightening currently expected may not be enough to restore low inflation in a timely fashion. The second scenario, sharp downturn, assumes an upward drift in inflation expectations, which triggers additional synchronous monetary policy tightening by major central banks. In this scenario, the global economy would still escape a recession in 2023 but would experience a sharp downturn without restoring low inflation by the end of the forecast horizon. In the third scenario, global recession, additional increases in policy rates would trigger a sharp re-pricing of risk in global financial markets and result in a global recession in 2023. If the ongoing global slowdown turns into a recession, the global economy could end up experiencing large permanent output losses relative to its pre-pandemic trend. This would have severe consequences for the long-term growth prospects of emerging market and developing economies that were already hit hard by the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020.
Policy responses. Policymakers need to navigate a narrow path that requires a comprehensive set of demand- and supply-side measures. On the demand side, monetary policy must be employed consistently to restore, in a timely manner, price stability. Fiscal policy needs to prioritize medium-term debt sustainability while providing targeted support to vulnerable groups. Policymakers need to stand ready to manage the potential spillovers from globally synchronous withdrawal of policies supporting growth. On the supply-side, they need to put in place measures to ease the constraints that confront labor markets, energy markets, and trade networks.
Source: World Bank
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Friday, 08 July 22
AUSTRALIAN COAL PRICE BREAKS AGAIN LEVEL US$ 400/TON!, UP AROUND 4% - CNBC INDONESIA
Coal prices shot up again and crossed the level of US$ 400 per ton. On Thursday (7/7/2022) trading, the selling price of August contract closed at ...
Friday, 08 July 22
INDONESIA MULLS MORE FREQUENT SETTING OF CRUDE PALM OIL REFERENCE PRICE - REUTERS
Indonesia is considering setting its crude palm oil (CPO) export reference price every two weeks instead of monthly, a senior trade ministry offici ...
Friday, 08 July 22
BUNKER PRICES EXPECTED TO RECOVER LOST GROUND NEXT WEEK - SERGEY IVANOV, MABUX
Over the Week 27, the world bunker indices showed a sharp decline, primarily due to the fall in oil prices on July 05. The 380 HSFO index fell by 5 ...
Thursday, 07 July 22
NTPC MINES 61% MORE COAL AT 4.22 MN METRIC TONNES IN APRIL-JUNE: PTI
State-owned power giant NTPC on Tuesday said that its coal output grew by 61 per cent to Rs 42.40 lakh metric tonnes in April-June quarter from 26. ...
Thursday, 07 July 22
COAL INDIA'S PRODUCTION SETS RECORD INCREASE OF 29% YOY AT 36 MT IN Q1FY23 - IIFL SECURITIES
Coal India Limited (CIL) has ended April-June quarter FY’23 capping a historic high of 29% yoy output growth, compared to same quarter FY&rsq ...
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- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Coal Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
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