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Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
 Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has ignited a debate about the possibility of a global recession—a contraction in global per capita GDP. Drawing on insights gained from previous global recessions, this study presents a systematic analysis of the recent evolution of economic activity and policies, and a model-based assessment of possible near-term macroeconomic outcomes.
Evolution of activity. Consensus forecasts for global growth in 2022 and 2023 have been downgraded significantly since the beginning of the year. Although these forecasts do not point to a global recession in 2022–23, experience from earlier recessions suggests that at least two developments—which either have already materialized in recent months or may be underway—heighten the likelihood of a global recession in the near future. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year, as has happened recently. Second, all previous global recessions coincided with sharp slowdowns or outright recessions in several major economies.
Evolution of policies. Despite the current slowdown in global growth, inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in many countries. To stem risks from persistently high inflation, and in a context of limited fiscal space, many countries are withdrawing monetary and fiscal support. As a result, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening of the past five decades. These policy actions are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually compounding effects could produce larger impacts than intended, both in tightening financial conditions and in steepening the growth slowdown. This synchronous policy tightening contrasts with the policies adopted around the 1975 global recession but is similar to those implemented ahead of the 1982 recession. A major lesson from these two episodes is that making necessary policy adjustments in a timely fashion is essential to containing inflationary pressures and reducing the output costs of policy interventions.
Near-term growth outcomes. Three scenarios for the global economy over 2022-24 are analyzed using a large-scale, cross-country model. The first, baseline scenario, aligns closely with recent consensus forecasts of growth and inflation, as well as market expectations for policy interest rates. However, it implies that the degree of monetary policy tightening currently expected may not be enough to restore low inflation in a timely fashion. The second scenario, sharp downturn, assumes an upward drift in inflation expectations, which triggers additional synchronous monetary policy tightening by major central banks. In this scenario, the global economy would still escape a recession in 2023 but would experience a sharp downturn without restoring low inflation by the end of the forecast horizon. In the third scenario, global recession, additional increases in policy rates would trigger a sharp re-pricing of risk in global financial markets and result in a global recession in 2023. If the ongoing global slowdown turns into a recession, the global economy could end up experiencing large permanent output losses relative to its pre-pandemic trend. This would have severe consequences for the long-term growth prospects of emerging market and developing economies that were already hit hard by the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020.
Policy responses. Policymakers need to navigate a narrow path that requires a comprehensive set of demand- and supply-side measures. On the demand side, monetary policy must be employed consistently to restore, in a timely manner, price stability. Fiscal policy needs to prioritize medium-term debt sustainability while providing targeted support to vulnerable groups. Policymakers need to stand ready to manage the potential spillovers from globally synchronous withdrawal of policies supporting growth. On the supply-side, they need to put in place measures to ease the constraints that confront labor markets, energy markets, and trade networks.
Source: World Bank
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Tuesday, 08 March 22
THE HIGH COST OF INDONESIA’S DOWNSTREAM COAL PROJECTS IS UNDERESTIMATED - IEEFA
Three Indonesian ministries have come up with a DME purchase price of US$378/tonne fixed for 20 years compared to IEEFA’s US$601/tonne estima ...
Wednesday, 02 March 22
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The escalating confrontation between Russia and Ukraine has the potential to disrupt global order and set the world back a few decades. While count ...
Tuesday, 22 February 22
THE DRY BULK MARKET HAS MOVED ON A POSITIVE TRACK - ALLIED
The dry bulk market has moved on a positive track as of the past couple of weeks or so. Following the typical softening in freight conditions durin ...
Tuesday, 22 February 22
CHINA'S DAILY OUTPUT OF COAL REBOUNDS TO OVER 12 MLN TONNES - REUTERS
China’s coal output returned to more than 12 million tonnes per day as of Feb. 20, the country’s state planner said on Monday, a level ...
Thursday, 17 February 22
MAJOR INSTITUTIONS PROVIDED OVER $1.5 TRLN TO COAL SECTOR IN 2019-2021, SAYS NGO GROUP - REUTERS
Financial institutions channelled more than $1.5 trillion into the coal industry in loans and underwriting from January 2019 to November 2021, even ...
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The University of Queensland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
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