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Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
 Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has ignited a debate about the possibility of a global recession—a contraction in global per capita GDP. Drawing on insights gained from previous global recessions, this study presents a systematic analysis of the recent evolution of economic activity and policies, and a model-based assessment of possible near-term macroeconomic outcomes.
Evolution of activity. Consensus forecasts for global growth in 2022 and 2023 have been downgraded significantly since the beginning of the year. Although these forecasts do not point to a global recession in 2022–23, experience from earlier recessions suggests that at least two developments—which either have already materialized in recent months or may be underway—heighten the likelihood of a global recession in the near future. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year, as has happened recently. Second, all previous global recessions coincided with sharp slowdowns or outright recessions in several major economies.
Evolution of policies. Despite the current slowdown in global growth, inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in many countries. To stem risks from persistently high inflation, and in a context of limited fiscal space, many countries are withdrawing monetary and fiscal support. As a result, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening of the past five decades. These policy actions are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually compounding effects could produce larger impacts than intended, both in tightening financial conditions and in steepening the growth slowdown. This synchronous policy tightening contrasts with the policies adopted around the 1975 global recession but is similar to those implemented ahead of the 1982 recession. A major lesson from these two episodes is that making necessary policy adjustments in a timely fashion is essential to containing inflationary pressures and reducing the output costs of policy interventions.
Near-term growth outcomes. Three scenarios for the global economy over 2022-24 are analyzed using a large-scale, cross-country model. The first, baseline scenario, aligns closely with recent consensus forecasts of growth and inflation, as well as market expectations for policy interest rates. However, it implies that the degree of monetary policy tightening currently expected may not be enough to restore low inflation in a timely fashion. The second scenario, sharp downturn, assumes an upward drift in inflation expectations, which triggers additional synchronous monetary policy tightening by major central banks. In this scenario, the global economy would still escape a recession in 2023 but would experience a sharp downturn without restoring low inflation by the end of the forecast horizon. In the third scenario, global recession, additional increases in policy rates would trigger a sharp re-pricing of risk in global financial markets and result in a global recession in 2023. If the ongoing global slowdown turns into a recession, the global economy could end up experiencing large permanent output losses relative to its pre-pandemic trend. This would have severe consequences for the long-term growth prospects of emerging market and developing economies that were already hit hard by the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020.
Policy responses. Policymakers need to navigate a narrow path that requires a comprehensive set of demand- and supply-side measures. On the demand side, monetary policy must be employed consistently to restore, in a timely manner, price stability. Fiscal policy needs to prioritize medium-term debt sustainability while providing targeted support to vulnerable groups. Policymakers need to stand ready to manage the potential spillovers from globally synchronous withdrawal of policies supporting growth. On the supply-side, they need to put in place measures to ease the constraints that confront labor markets, energy markets, and trade networks.
Source: World Bank
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Thursday, 03 February 22
COAL SHORTAGE NOW AT ALARMING LEVELS, SAY ALUMINIUM PRODUCERS - IANS
With no relief in sight despite coal stocks running critically low and production disruptions looming across the Indian aluminium sector, the Alumi ...
Wednesday, 02 February 22
HIGH COKING COAL PRICES PROVIDE GLIMPSE INTO STEELMAKING'S FUTURE - MCKINSEY
Last year was a volatile one in global commodity markets. Demand for coking coal, an essential raw material in the production of steel, was extreme ...
Wednesday, 02 February 22
INDONESIA'S RESTRICTIONS ON COMMODITIES RATTLE MARKETS, MORE MOVES LIKELY - REUTERS
In just the first month of this year, Indonesian policymakers have rattled global markets with restrictions on some of its biggest commodities expo ...
Wednesday, 02 February 22
CHINA'S TOP COAL PRODUCER FORECASTS 28 PCT PROFIT GROWTH IN 2021 - XINHUA
China Shenhua Energy Company Limited, one of the country’s biggest coal producers, said its net profits are expected to jump by 28 percent in ...
Wednesday, 02 February 22
COAL STORAGE IN CHINA’S POWER PLANTS NEAR RECORD HIGHS - XINHUA
Coal inflows into China’s power plants have picked up, bringing their coal storage to near record highs, the National Development and Reform ...
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The University of Queensland
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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