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Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
 Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has ignited a debate about the possibility of a global recession—a contraction in global per capita GDP. Drawing on insights gained from previous global recessions, this study presents a systematic analysis of the recent evolution of economic activity and policies, and a model-based assessment of possible near-term macroeconomic outcomes.
Evolution of activity. Consensus forecasts for global growth in 2022 and 2023 have been downgraded significantly since the beginning of the year. Although these forecasts do not point to a global recession in 2022–23, experience from earlier recessions suggests that at least two developments—which either have already materialized in recent months or may be underway—heighten the likelihood of a global recession in the near future. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year, as has happened recently. Second, all previous global recessions coincided with sharp slowdowns or outright recessions in several major economies.
Evolution of policies. Despite the current slowdown in global growth, inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in many countries. To stem risks from persistently high inflation, and in a context of limited fiscal space, many countries are withdrawing monetary and fiscal support. As a result, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening of the past five decades. These policy actions are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually compounding effects could produce larger impacts than intended, both in tightening financial conditions and in steepening the growth slowdown. This synchronous policy tightening contrasts with the policies adopted around the 1975 global recession but is similar to those implemented ahead of the 1982 recession. A major lesson from these two episodes is that making necessary policy adjustments in a timely fashion is essential to containing inflationary pressures and reducing the output costs of policy interventions.
Near-term growth outcomes. Three scenarios for the global economy over 2022-24 are analyzed using a large-scale, cross-country model. The first, baseline scenario, aligns closely with recent consensus forecasts of growth and inflation, as well as market expectations for policy interest rates. However, it implies that the degree of monetary policy tightening currently expected may not be enough to restore low inflation in a timely fashion. The second scenario, sharp downturn, assumes an upward drift in inflation expectations, which triggers additional synchronous monetary policy tightening by major central banks. In this scenario, the global economy would still escape a recession in 2023 but would experience a sharp downturn without restoring low inflation by the end of the forecast horizon. In the third scenario, global recession, additional increases in policy rates would trigger a sharp re-pricing of risk in global financial markets and result in a global recession in 2023. If the ongoing global slowdown turns into a recession, the global economy could end up experiencing large permanent output losses relative to its pre-pandemic trend. This would have severe consequences for the long-term growth prospects of emerging market and developing economies that were already hit hard by the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020.
Policy responses. Policymakers need to navigate a narrow path that requires a comprehensive set of demand- and supply-side measures. On the demand side, monetary policy must be employed consistently to restore, in a timely manner, price stability. Fiscal policy needs to prioritize medium-term debt sustainability while providing targeted support to vulnerable groups. Policymakers need to stand ready to manage the potential spillovers from globally synchronous withdrawal of policies supporting growth. On the supply-side, they need to put in place measures to ease the constraints that confront labor markets, energy markets, and trade networks.
Source: World Bank
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Thursday, 20 January 22
CHINESE COAL JUMPS OVER 6% ON PRE-HOLIDAY SUPPLY WORRY - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal futures soared more than 6% on Wednesday, hitting a level last seen in late November as investors grew concerned over ti ...
Thursday, 20 January 22
VIETNAM: COAL SECTOR SEES POSITIVE PROSPECT IN 2022 - VNA
With many signs of rising demand for coal in various economic sectors in 2022, the Vietnam National Coal – Mineral Industries Group (Vinacomi ...
Wednesday, 19 January 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Since the beginning of the year, we have been witnessing the BDI correcting downwards with sizable drops across all segments. Latest similar levels ...
Sunday, 09 January 22
INDONESIA MINISTER SAYS 'EMERGENCY OVER' ON COAL SUPPLY CRUNCH - REUTERS
Indonesia’s power emergency which has triggered a coal export ban is over but the government will still continue to discuss policies in this ...
Wednesday, 05 January 22
CHINA COAL FUTURES SURGE ON SUPPLY WORRIES AMID INDONESIA EXPORT BAN - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal futures surged by as much as 7.8per cent to kick off 2022 on concerns of supply disruptions after Indonesia, its biggest ...
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- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Australian Coal Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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