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Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
 Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has ignited a debate about the possibility of a global recession—a contraction in global per capita GDP. Drawing on insights gained from previous global recessions, this study presents a systematic analysis of the recent evolution of economic activity and policies, and a model-based assessment of possible near-term macroeconomic outcomes.
Evolution of activity. Consensus forecasts for global growth in 2022 and 2023 have been downgraded significantly since the beginning of the year. Although these forecasts do not point to a global recession in 2022–23, experience from earlier recessions suggests that at least two developments—which either have already materialized in recent months or may be underway—heighten the likelihood of a global recession in the near future. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year, as has happened recently. Second, all previous global recessions coincided with sharp slowdowns or outright recessions in several major economies.
Evolution of policies. Despite the current slowdown in global growth, inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in many countries. To stem risks from persistently high inflation, and in a context of limited fiscal space, many countries are withdrawing monetary and fiscal support. As a result, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening of the past five decades. These policy actions are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually compounding effects could produce larger impacts than intended, both in tightening financial conditions and in steepening the growth slowdown. This synchronous policy tightening contrasts with the policies adopted around the 1975 global recession but is similar to those implemented ahead of the 1982 recession. A major lesson from these two episodes is that making necessary policy adjustments in a timely fashion is essential to containing inflationary pressures and reducing the output costs of policy interventions.
Near-term growth outcomes. Three scenarios for the global economy over 2022-24 are analyzed using a large-scale, cross-country model. The first, baseline scenario, aligns closely with recent consensus forecasts of growth and inflation, as well as market expectations for policy interest rates. However, it implies that the degree of monetary policy tightening currently expected may not be enough to restore low inflation in a timely fashion. The second scenario, sharp downturn, assumes an upward drift in inflation expectations, which triggers additional synchronous monetary policy tightening by major central banks. In this scenario, the global economy would still escape a recession in 2023 but would experience a sharp downturn without restoring low inflation by the end of the forecast horizon. In the third scenario, global recession, additional increases in policy rates would trigger a sharp re-pricing of risk in global financial markets and result in a global recession in 2023. If the ongoing global slowdown turns into a recession, the global economy could end up experiencing large permanent output losses relative to its pre-pandemic trend. This would have severe consequences for the long-term growth prospects of emerging market and developing economies that were already hit hard by the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020.
Policy responses. Policymakers need to navigate a narrow path that requires a comprehensive set of demand- and supply-side measures. On the demand side, monetary policy must be employed consistently to restore, in a timely manner, price stability. Fiscal policy needs to prioritize medium-term debt sustainability while providing targeted support to vulnerable groups. Policymakers need to stand ready to manage the potential spillovers from globally synchronous withdrawal of policies supporting growth. On the supply-side, they need to put in place measures to ease the constraints that confront labor markets, energy markets, and trade networks.
Source: World Bank
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Wednesday, 01 December 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Essentially, anyone involved in the shipping and commodity markets still struggle with commodity supply issues and skyrocketing prices in the conte ...
Tuesday, 30 November 21
CHINA'S TOP ECONOMIC PLANNER SUMMONS COAL PRODUCERS; LONG-TERM PRICING MECHANISM IS ADVISED - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s top economic planner the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said on Monday that they summoned coal producers for a hea ...
Tuesday, 30 November 21
CHINA'S COAL PRICES PLUNGE AFTER GOVT SIGNALS MORE PRICE REGULATION - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal futures dropped 5.6% on Monday after the state economic planner signaled further regulations for prices of the dirty pow ...
Friday, 26 November 21
AS COAL MARKET STABILIZES, CHINA STEPS UP NATURAL GAS SUPPLY TO MEET WINTER DEMAND - GLOBAL TIMES
The daily supply of natural gas in China has exceeded 1 billion cubic meters (bcm) since November began, up 11 percent year-on-year, data from stat ...
Friday, 26 November 21
CHINA FINDS COMPLIANCE PROBLEMS IN COAL PRICE INDEX PROBE - REUTERS
China’s state planner on Wednesday said it had discovered some “noncompliant” behaviour among coal price index providers as it an ...
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- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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