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Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
 Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has ignited a debate about the possibility of a global recession—a contraction in global per capita GDP. Drawing on insights gained from previous global recessions, this study presents a systematic analysis of the recent evolution of economic activity and policies, and a model-based assessment of possible near-term macroeconomic outcomes.
Evolution of activity. Consensus forecasts for global growth in 2022 and 2023 have been downgraded significantly since the beginning of the year. Although these forecasts do not point to a global recession in 2022–23, experience from earlier recessions suggests that at least two developments—which either have already materialized in recent months or may be underway—heighten the likelihood of a global recession in the near future. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year, as has happened recently. Second, all previous global recessions coincided with sharp slowdowns or outright recessions in several major economies.
Evolution of policies. Despite the current slowdown in global growth, inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in many countries. To stem risks from persistently high inflation, and in a context of limited fiscal space, many countries are withdrawing monetary and fiscal support. As a result, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening of the past five decades. These policy actions are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually compounding effects could produce larger impacts than intended, both in tightening financial conditions and in steepening the growth slowdown. This synchronous policy tightening contrasts with the policies adopted around the 1975 global recession but is similar to those implemented ahead of the 1982 recession. A major lesson from these two episodes is that making necessary policy adjustments in a timely fashion is essential to containing inflationary pressures and reducing the output costs of policy interventions.
Near-term growth outcomes. Three scenarios for the global economy over 2022-24 are analyzed using a large-scale, cross-country model. The first, baseline scenario, aligns closely with recent consensus forecasts of growth and inflation, as well as market expectations for policy interest rates. However, it implies that the degree of monetary policy tightening currently expected may not be enough to restore low inflation in a timely fashion. The second scenario, sharp downturn, assumes an upward drift in inflation expectations, which triggers additional synchronous monetary policy tightening by major central banks. In this scenario, the global economy would still escape a recession in 2023 but would experience a sharp downturn without restoring low inflation by the end of the forecast horizon. In the third scenario, global recession, additional increases in policy rates would trigger a sharp re-pricing of risk in global financial markets and result in a global recession in 2023. If the ongoing global slowdown turns into a recession, the global economy could end up experiencing large permanent output losses relative to its pre-pandemic trend. This would have severe consequences for the long-term growth prospects of emerging market and developing economies that were already hit hard by the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020.
Policy responses. Policymakers need to navigate a narrow path that requires a comprehensive set of demand- and supply-side measures. On the demand side, monetary policy must be employed consistently to restore, in a timely manner, price stability. Fiscal policy needs to prioritize medium-term debt sustainability while providing targeted support to vulnerable groups. Policymakers need to stand ready to manage the potential spillovers from globally synchronous withdrawal of policies supporting growth. On the supply-side, they need to put in place measures to ease the constraints that confront labor markets, energy markets, and trade networks.
Source: World Bank
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Tuesday, 16 November 21
CHINA'S MONTHLY COAL OUTPUT RISES TO HIGHEST SINCE MARCH 2015 - REUTERS
China’s October coal output rose to the highest since at least March 2015, after Beijing approved a raft of coal mine expansions to tame reco ...
Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Dre ...
Friday, 12 November 21
ASIA COAL POWER PIPELINE TO SHRINK BY TWO THIRDS AFTER CHINA FINANCE CUT - REUTERS
Asia’s pipeline of proposed coal-fired power plants is expected to shrink from 65 gigawatts to 22 gigawatts following China’s pledge to ...
Friday, 12 November 21
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE TOPS $215 A TON; THE HIGHEST COAL PRICE IN HISTORY
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference in a steep climb for most of second half of 2021 as it reached a pinnacle of $215.01 in November 2021 ...
Thursday, 11 November 21
ASIA COAL POWER PIPELINE TO SHRINK BY TWO THIRDS AFTER CHINA FINANCE CUT - REUTERS
Asia’s pipeline of proposed coal-fired power plants is expected to shrink from 65 gigawatts to 22 gigawatts following China’s pledge to ...
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- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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