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Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
 Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has ignited a debate about the possibility of a global recession—a contraction in global per capita GDP. Drawing on insights gained from previous global recessions, this study presents a systematic analysis of the recent evolution of economic activity and policies, and a model-based assessment of possible near-term macroeconomic outcomes.
Evolution of activity. Consensus forecasts for global growth in 2022 and 2023 have been downgraded significantly since the beginning of the year. Although these forecasts do not point to a global recession in 2022–23, experience from earlier recessions suggests that at least two developments—which either have already materialized in recent months or may be underway—heighten the likelihood of a global recession in the near future. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year, as has happened recently. Second, all previous global recessions coincided with sharp slowdowns or outright recessions in several major economies.
Evolution of policies. Despite the current slowdown in global growth, inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in many countries. To stem risks from persistently high inflation, and in a context of limited fiscal space, many countries are withdrawing monetary and fiscal support. As a result, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening of the past five decades. These policy actions are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually compounding effects could produce larger impacts than intended, both in tightening financial conditions and in steepening the growth slowdown. This synchronous policy tightening contrasts with the policies adopted around the 1975 global recession but is similar to those implemented ahead of the 1982 recession. A major lesson from these two episodes is that making necessary policy adjustments in a timely fashion is essential to containing inflationary pressures and reducing the output costs of policy interventions.
Near-term growth outcomes. Three scenarios for the global economy over 2022-24 are analyzed using a large-scale, cross-country model. The first, baseline scenario, aligns closely with recent consensus forecasts of growth and inflation, as well as market expectations for policy interest rates. However, it implies that the degree of monetary policy tightening currently expected may not be enough to restore low inflation in a timely fashion. The second scenario, sharp downturn, assumes an upward drift in inflation expectations, which triggers additional synchronous monetary policy tightening by major central banks. In this scenario, the global economy would still escape a recession in 2023 but would experience a sharp downturn without restoring low inflation by the end of the forecast horizon. In the third scenario, global recession, additional increases in policy rates would trigger a sharp re-pricing of risk in global financial markets and result in a global recession in 2023. If the ongoing global slowdown turns into a recession, the global economy could end up experiencing large permanent output losses relative to its pre-pandemic trend. This would have severe consequences for the long-term growth prospects of emerging market and developing economies that were already hit hard by the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020.
Policy responses. Policymakers need to navigate a narrow path that requires a comprehensive set of demand- and supply-side measures. On the demand side, monetary policy must be employed consistently to restore, in a timely manner, price stability. Fiscal policy needs to prioritize medium-term debt sustainability while providing targeted support to vulnerable groups. Policymakers need to stand ready to manage the potential spillovers from globally synchronous withdrawal of policies supporting growth. On the supply-side, they need to put in place measures to ease the constraints that confront labor markets, energy markets, and trade networks.
Source: World Bank
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Monday, 25 October 21
CHINA VOWS TO SEVERELY PUNISH MARKET VIOLATIONS AMID LOW COAL FUTURES PRICES - GLOBAL TIMES
Domestic coal futures had plunged for three consecutive trading days after the government vowed to crack down on soaring prices, and China’s ...
Monday, 25 October 21
FARMERS MAY JOIN THE COAL COMMODITY MARKET TO REDUCE RISKS - GLOBAL TIMES
A recent trip to by the Global Times to East China’s Shandong Province to get a glimpse of China’s coal supply chain revealed a surpris ...
Monday, 25 October 21
CHINA COAL PRICES MARK WORST WEEK SINCE MAY ON GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal futures plunged on Friday and turned in their worst week in five months, following Beijing’s strongest interventio ...
Friday, 22 October 21
THE BIG PICTURE: ENERGY MARKETS - BREAK WAVE ADVISORS
The shipping markets have been pulled further into wild markets of coal and other energy sources. Given how nebulous this sector is, it’s alw ...
Friday, 22 October 21
CHINA WANTS TO COOL COAL PRICES. SIMILAR MOVES FOR METALS, CRUDE FAILED - REUTERS
China’s latest attempt to lower runaway commodity prices, this time for thermal coal, is likely to follow a familiar pattern of initial succe ...
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- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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