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Saturday, 17 September 22
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS & MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has revised its metals and mining price assumptions reflecting evolving economic growth expectations and demand and supply dynamics.
Short-term assumptions for copper, aluminium, nickel, zinc, iron ore and hard coking coal have been cut, reflecting lower current prices and increasing uncertainties over short-term demand. At the same time short- and medium-term assumptions for thermal coal have been raised reflecting increased demand due to the energy crisis in Europe.
Our reduced copper assumptions for 2022-2023 reflect a global economic slowdown and expectations of weaker demand in the short term compared with supply prospects, which we anticipate to lead to a small surplus in 2023, although the market is likely to remain tight. We expect small demand increases in China in 2022-2023 due to periodic lockdowns and a decline in the country’s construction sector, while consumption growth in other regions is only marginally higher than that in China. Nevertheless, medium-term prospects remain solid due to the energy transition accounting for 50% of growth in global copper demand anticipated over the next five years. Our medium- and long-term assumptions therefore remain unchanged.
We have cut the 2022 iron ore and coking coal price assumptions reflecting ytd pricing on lower steel demand, particularly in China, which leads to steel production curtailments and lower demand for steelmaking inputs, falling steel producers’ margins and build-up of iron ore inventories. At the same time, met coal supply has improved as Australian production recovered and Russian producers redirected some of their output from Europe to Asia. However, the market prices for met coal have bottomed out, while some hard coking coal producers started diverting sales to the thermal coal market, which benefits from high demand and pricing. However, our medium- and long-term views of the iron ore and met coal markets remain unchanged.
The lowered aluminium assumptions for 2022-2023 reflect changing market sentiments that lead to reduced prices in the short term, while market fundamentals and our longer-term assumptions are unchanged. Lower demand, particularly due to weaknesses of the Chinese construction market, will weigh on aluminium prices in the short term. However, rising energy prices could turn production in many markets loss-making, leading to curtailment and shoring up prices from further decline.
We have reduced zinc assumptions for 2022-2023 as inflationary and recessionary pressures and energy issues weigh on demand, while mine production remains flat, leading to market surpluses in the short term. However, price-elastic supply should support market rebalancing in the medium term.
All gold price assumptions remain unchanged, reflecting the metal’s ‘safe haven’ investment status amid high geopolitical instability and inflationary pressures. The market price has been moderating during most of 2022 in line with our expectations of interest-rate hikes, while the strong US dollar will continue pushing the price down. We expect gold prices to moderate in the longer term once geopolitical risks abate and as the interest-rate hiking cycle continues.
Our increased 2022-2025 assumptions for both thermal coal price benchmarks reflect strong demand, particularly from China, against the backdrop of higher energy prices, particular high European gas prices, leading to increased reliance on coal-powered energy generation. The increased price assumptions for 2024-2025 also incorporate higher coal mining costs and limited expected new capacity in the main producing countries. However, our long-term assumptions remain unchanged as consumption in China should gradually decline.
We have cut our nickel price assumption for 2022 reflecting subdued demand from the stainless steel sector, while production levels remain healthy, particularly in Russia and Indonesia. However, long-term demand from electric vehicle production should support longer-term prices.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 02 February 24
DRY BULK MARKET: THE DOWNWARD REVISION IN THE GROWTH OF CAPESIZE TONNE DAYS IN JANUARY WITH THE BCI DROPPING - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In the last week of January, the dry freight market sustained weakness in the Capesize segment, while the number of ballasters in the Southeast (SE ...
Friday, 02 February 24
COAL INDIA ACHIEVES NEARLY 80% OF ITS FY24 PRODUCTION TARGET IN TEN MONTHS - CNBCTV18
For the month of January, the company’s production grew by 9.1% from the same period last year to 78.4 Million Tonnes (MT), from 71.9 MT last ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
CHINA'S WIND, SOLAR CAPACITY TO OVERTAKE COAL IN 2024 - INDUSTRY BODY, REUTERS REPORTED
China’s installed wind and solar capacity is expected to overtake coal for the first time this year, according to industry forecasts.
&nb ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
ANTI-DEDUCTION CLAUSES: CAN A CHARTERER WITHHOLD HIRE WITHOUT AN OWNER'S CONSENT? - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Summary
In The Anna Dorothea, the Court found that where a charterparty provides that no deduction from hire may be m ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
INDIA REBUILDS COAL STOCKS TO ENSURE ELECTRIC RELIABILITY - REUTERS
India’s electricity supply is much more comfortable at the start of 2024 than in either 2023 or 2022 as coal production has ramped up and the ...
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- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
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