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Saturday, 17 September 22
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS & MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has revised its metals and mining price assumptions reflecting evolving economic growth expectations and demand and supply dynamics.
Short-term assumptions for copper, aluminium, nickel, zinc, iron ore and hard coking coal have been cut, reflecting lower current prices and increasing uncertainties over short-term demand. At the same time short- and medium-term assumptions for thermal coal have been raised reflecting increased demand due to the energy crisis in Europe.
Our reduced copper assumptions for 2022-2023 reflect a global economic slowdown and expectations of weaker demand in the short term compared with supply prospects, which we anticipate to lead to a small surplus in 2023, although the market is likely to remain tight. We expect small demand increases in China in 2022-2023 due to periodic lockdowns and a decline in the country’s construction sector, while consumption growth in other regions is only marginally higher than that in China. Nevertheless, medium-term prospects remain solid due to the energy transition accounting for 50% of growth in global copper demand anticipated over the next five years. Our medium- and long-term assumptions therefore remain unchanged.
We have cut the 2022 iron ore and coking coal price assumptions reflecting ytd pricing on lower steel demand, particularly in China, which leads to steel production curtailments and lower demand for steelmaking inputs, falling steel producers’ margins and build-up of iron ore inventories. At the same time, met coal supply has improved as Australian production recovered and Russian producers redirected some of their output from Europe to Asia. However, the market prices for met coal have bottomed out, while some hard coking coal producers started diverting sales to the thermal coal market, which benefits from high demand and pricing. However, our medium- and long-term views of the iron ore and met coal markets remain unchanged.
The lowered aluminium assumptions for 2022-2023 reflect changing market sentiments that lead to reduced prices in the short term, while market fundamentals and our longer-term assumptions are unchanged. Lower demand, particularly due to weaknesses of the Chinese construction market, will weigh on aluminium prices in the short term. However, rising energy prices could turn production in many markets loss-making, leading to curtailment and shoring up prices from further decline.
We have reduced zinc assumptions for 2022-2023 as inflationary and recessionary pressures and energy issues weigh on demand, while mine production remains flat, leading to market surpluses in the short term. However, price-elastic supply should support market rebalancing in the medium term.
All gold price assumptions remain unchanged, reflecting the metal’s ‘safe haven’ investment status amid high geopolitical instability and inflationary pressures. The market price has been moderating during most of 2022 in line with our expectations of interest-rate hikes, while the strong US dollar will continue pushing the price down. We expect gold prices to moderate in the longer term once geopolitical risks abate and as the interest-rate hiking cycle continues.
Our increased 2022-2025 assumptions for both thermal coal price benchmarks reflect strong demand, particularly from China, against the backdrop of higher energy prices, particular high European gas prices, leading to increased reliance on coal-powered energy generation. The increased price assumptions for 2024-2025 also incorporate higher coal mining costs and limited expected new capacity in the main producing countries. However, our long-term assumptions remain unchanged as consumption in China should gradually decline.
We have cut our nickel price assumption for 2022 reflecting subdued demand from the stainless steel sector, while production levels remain healthy, particularly in Russia and Indonesia. However, long-term demand from electric vehicle production should support longer-term prices.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 02 February 24
DRY BULK MARKET: THE DOWNWARD REVISION IN THE GROWTH OF CAPESIZE TONNE DAYS IN JANUARY WITH THE BCI DROPPING - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In the last week of January, the dry freight market sustained weakness in the Capesize segment, while the number of ballasters in the Southeast (SE ...
Friday, 02 February 24
COAL INDIA ACHIEVES NEARLY 80% OF ITS FY24 PRODUCTION TARGET IN TEN MONTHS - CNBCTV18
For the month of January, the company’s production grew by 9.1% from the same period last year to 78.4 Million Tonnes (MT), from 71.9 MT last ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
CHINA'S WIND, SOLAR CAPACITY TO OVERTAKE COAL IN 2024 - INDUSTRY BODY, REUTERS REPORTED
China’s installed wind and solar capacity is expected to overtake coal for the first time this year, according to industry forecasts.
&nb ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
ANTI-DEDUCTION CLAUSES: CAN A CHARTERER WITHHOLD HIRE WITHOUT AN OWNER'S CONSENT? - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Summary
In The Anna Dorothea, the Court found that where a charterparty provides that no deduction from hire may be m ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
INDIA REBUILDS COAL STOCKS TO ENSURE ELECTRIC RELIABILITY - REUTERS
India’s electricity supply is much more comfortable at the start of 2024 than in either 2023 or 2022 as coal production has ramped up and the ...
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- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
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