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Saturday, 17 September 22
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS & MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has revised its metals and mining price assumptions reflecting evolving economic growth expectations and demand and supply dynamics.
Short-term assumptions for copper, aluminium, nickel, zinc, iron ore and hard coking coal have been cut, reflecting lower current prices and increasing uncertainties over short-term demand. At the same time short- and medium-term assumptions for thermal coal have been raised reflecting increased demand due to the energy crisis in Europe.
Our reduced copper assumptions for 2022-2023 reflect a global economic slowdown and expectations of weaker demand in the short term compared with supply prospects, which we anticipate to lead to a small surplus in 2023, although the market is likely to remain tight. We expect small demand increases in China in 2022-2023 due to periodic lockdowns and a decline in the country’s construction sector, while consumption growth in other regions is only marginally higher than that in China. Nevertheless, medium-term prospects remain solid due to the energy transition accounting for 50% of growth in global copper demand anticipated over the next five years. Our medium- and long-term assumptions therefore remain unchanged.
We have cut the 2022 iron ore and coking coal price assumptions reflecting ytd pricing on lower steel demand, particularly in China, which leads to steel production curtailments and lower demand for steelmaking inputs, falling steel producers’ margins and build-up of iron ore inventories. At the same time, met coal supply has improved as Australian production recovered and Russian producers redirected some of their output from Europe to Asia. However, the market prices for met coal have bottomed out, while some hard coking coal producers started diverting sales to the thermal coal market, which benefits from high demand and pricing. However, our medium- and long-term views of the iron ore and met coal markets remain unchanged.
The lowered aluminium assumptions for 2022-2023 reflect changing market sentiments that lead to reduced prices in the short term, while market fundamentals and our longer-term assumptions are unchanged. Lower demand, particularly due to weaknesses of the Chinese construction market, will weigh on aluminium prices in the short term. However, rising energy prices could turn production in many markets loss-making, leading to curtailment and shoring up prices from further decline.
We have reduced zinc assumptions for 2022-2023 as inflationary and recessionary pressures and energy issues weigh on demand, while mine production remains flat, leading to market surpluses in the short term. However, price-elastic supply should support market rebalancing in the medium term.
All gold price assumptions remain unchanged, reflecting the metal’s ‘safe haven’ investment status amid high geopolitical instability and inflationary pressures. The market price has been moderating during most of 2022 in line with our expectations of interest-rate hikes, while the strong US dollar will continue pushing the price down. We expect gold prices to moderate in the longer term once geopolitical risks abate and as the interest-rate hiking cycle continues.
Our increased 2022-2025 assumptions for both thermal coal price benchmarks reflect strong demand, particularly from China, against the backdrop of higher energy prices, particular high European gas prices, leading to increased reliance on coal-powered energy generation. The increased price assumptions for 2024-2025 also incorporate higher coal mining costs and limited expected new capacity in the main producing countries. However, our long-term assumptions remain unchanged as consumption in China should gradually decline.
We have cut our nickel price assumption for 2022 reflecting subdued demand from the stainless steel sector, while production levels remain healthy, particularly in Russia and Indonesia. However, long-term demand from electric vehicle production should support longer-term prices.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Thursday, 25 January 24
THE RED SEA ESCALATION IMPLICATIONS ON GLOBAL SEABORNE TRADE - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In recent days, discussions have intensified about the potential impact on the seaborne trade and ton-miles due to the evolving dynamics of market ...
Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil a ...
Friday, 19 January 24
INDONESIA TARGETS 710 MLN METRIC TONS COAL OUTPUT IN 2024 AFTER RECORD 2023 - REUTERS
Indonesia, a major thermal coal exporter, aims to produce 710 million metric tons of coal in 2024, its mining minister said on Monday, after postin ...
Friday, 19 January 24
DRUMMOND COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT ROSE 7.1% IN 2023 - REUTERS
Coal production from miner Drummond’s Colombia operations rose 7.1% in 2023 to 29.5 million metric tons, while exports declined by 2.6% to 27 ...
Friday, 19 January 24
CHINA'S 2023 COAL OUTPUT HITS RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal output reached a record high in 2023, data from the statistics bureau showed on Wednesday, amid an ongoing focus on energy secur ...
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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