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Saturday, 17 September 22
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS & MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has revised its metals and mining price assumptions reflecting evolving economic growth expectations and demand and supply dynamics.
Short-term assumptions for copper, aluminium, nickel, zinc, iron ore and hard coking coal have been cut, reflecting lower current prices and increasing uncertainties over short-term demand. At the same time short- and medium-term assumptions for thermal coal have been raised reflecting increased demand due to the energy crisis in Europe.
Our reduced copper assumptions for 2022-2023 reflect a global economic slowdown and expectations of weaker demand in the short term compared with supply prospects, which we anticipate to lead to a small surplus in 2023, although the market is likely to remain tight. We expect small demand increases in China in 2022-2023 due to periodic lockdowns and a decline in the country’s construction sector, while consumption growth in other regions is only marginally higher than that in China. Nevertheless, medium-term prospects remain solid due to the energy transition accounting for 50% of growth in global copper demand anticipated over the next five years. Our medium- and long-term assumptions therefore remain unchanged.
We have cut the 2022 iron ore and coking coal price assumptions reflecting ytd pricing on lower steel demand, particularly in China, which leads to steel production curtailments and lower demand for steelmaking inputs, falling steel producers’ margins and build-up of iron ore inventories. At the same time, met coal supply has improved as Australian production recovered and Russian producers redirected some of their output from Europe to Asia. However, the market prices for met coal have bottomed out, while some hard coking coal producers started diverting sales to the thermal coal market, which benefits from high demand and pricing. However, our medium- and long-term views of the iron ore and met coal markets remain unchanged.
The lowered aluminium assumptions for 2022-2023 reflect changing market sentiments that lead to reduced prices in the short term, while market fundamentals and our longer-term assumptions are unchanged. Lower demand, particularly due to weaknesses of the Chinese construction market, will weigh on aluminium prices in the short term. However, rising energy prices could turn production in many markets loss-making, leading to curtailment and shoring up prices from further decline.
We have reduced zinc assumptions for 2022-2023 as inflationary and recessionary pressures and energy issues weigh on demand, while mine production remains flat, leading to market surpluses in the short term. However, price-elastic supply should support market rebalancing in the medium term.
All gold price assumptions remain unchanged, reflecting the metal’s ‘safe haven’ investment status amid high geopolitical instability and inflationary pressures. The market price has been moderating during most of 2022 in line with our expectations of interest-rate hikes, while the strong US dollar will continue pushing the price down. We expect gold prices to moderate in the longer term once geopolitical risks abate and as the interest-rate hiking cycle continues.
Our increased 2022-2025 assumptions for both thermal coal price benchmarks reflect strong demand, particularly from China, against the backdrop of higher energy prices, particular high European gas prices, leading to increased reliance on coal-powered energy generation. The increased price assumptions for 2024-2025 also incorporate higher coal mining costs and limited expected new capacity in the main producing countries. However, our long-term assumptions remain unchanged as consumption in China should gradually decline.
We have cut our nickel price assumption for 2022 reflecting subdued demand from the stainless steel sector, while production levels remain healthy, particularly in Russia and Indonesia. However, long-term demand from electric vehicle production should support longer-term prices.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 31 January 24
CHINA'S INNER MONGOLIA COAL OUTPUT HIT 1.21B TONS IN 2023 - XINHUA
North China’s Inner Mongolia autonomous region churned out 1.21 billion tons of coal in 2023 as it strives to guarantee the country’s e ...
Wednesday, 31 January 24
GAS EXPORTS COST U.S. CONSUMERS MORE THAN $100 BILLION OVER 16-MONTH PERIOD - IEEFA
Limited Demand Growth Could Dampen the Dry Bulk Market in the Coming Months BIMCOStarting in late 2021—before its invasion of Ukraine—R ...
Tuesday, 30 January 24
LIMITED DEMAND GROWTH COULD DAMPEN THE DRY BULK MARKET IN THE COMING MONTHS - BIMCO
Demand
In our base scenario, we expect cargo demand to grow by 0-1% in 2024 and 0.5-1.5% in 2025. This is a 0.5 percentage point reduction for ...
Friday, 26 January 24
RED SEA DIVERSIONS ADD NEARLY A MILLION DOLLARS PER VOYAGE TO SHIPPING COSTS WHILE DOUBLING TRANSIT TIME - LSEG
The incremental costs of diverting a tanker from Asia to NW Europe via the Cape of Good Hope is accounting for an extra $932,905 USD per voyage whi ...
Friday, 26 January 24
HARD COAL GUARDIAN ANGEL OF THE ENERGY SUPPLY - GERMANY COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
- No security of supply without hard coal
- The Substitute Power Plant Provision Act (EKBG) must be extended
- Higher grid fees due to the ...
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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