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Saturday, 17 September 22
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS & MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has revised its metals and mining price assumptions reflecting evolving economic growth expectations and demand and supply dynamics.
Short-term assumptions for copper, aluminium, nickel, zinc, iron ore and hard coking coal have been cut, reflecting lower current prices and increasing uncertainties over short-term demand. At the same time short- and medium-term assumptions for thermal coal have been raised reflecting increased demand due to the energy crisis in Europe.
Our reduced copper assumptions for 2022-2023 reflect a global economic slowdown and expectations of weaker demand in the short term compared with supply prospects, which we anticipate to lead to a small surplus in 2023, although the market is likely to remain tight. We expect small demand increases in China in 2022-2023 due to periodic lockdowns and a decline in the country’s construction sector, while consumption growth in other regions is only marginally higher than that in China. Nevertheless, medium-term prospects remain solid due to the energy transition accounting for 50% of growth in global copper demand anticipated over the next five years. Our medium- and long-term assumptions therefore remain unchanged.
We have cut the 2022 iron ore and coking coal price assumptions reflecting ytd pricing on lower steel demand, particularly in China, which leads to steel production curtailments and lower demand for steelmaking inputs, falling steel producers’ margins and build-up of iron ore inventories. At the same time, met coal supply has improved as Australian production recovered and Russian producers redirected some of their output from Europe to Asia. However, the market prices for met coal have bottomed out, while some hard coking coal producers started diverting sales to the thermal coal market, which benefits from high demand and pricing. However, our medium- and long-term views of the iron ore and met coal markets remain unchanged.
The lowered aluminium assumptions for 2022-2023 reflect changing market sentiments that lead to reduced prices in the short term, while market fundamentals and our longer-term assumptions are unchanged. Lower demand, particularly due to weaknesses of the Chinese construction market, will weigh on aluminium prices in the short term. However, rising energy prices could turn production in many markets loss-making, leading to curtailment and shoring up prices from further decline.
We have reduced zinc assumptions for 2022-2023 as inflationary and recessionary pressures and energy issues weigh on demand, while mine production remains flat, leading to market surpluses in the short term. However, price-elastic supply should support market rebalancing in the medium term.
All gold price assumptions remain unchanged, reflecting the metal’s ‘safe haven’ investment status amid high geopolitical instability and inflationary pressures. The market price has been moderating during most of 2022 in line with our expectations of interest-rate hikes, while the strong US dollar will continue pushing the price down. We expect gold prices to moderate in the longer term once geopolitical risks abate and as the interest-rate hiking cycle continues.
Our increased 2022-2025 assumptions for both thermal coal price benchmarks reflect strong demand, particularly from China, against the backdrop of higher energy prices, particular high European gas prices, leading to increased reliance on coal-powered energy generation. The increased price assumptions for 2024-2025 also incorporate higher coal mining costs and limited expected new capacity in the main producing countries. However, our long-term assumptions remain unchanged as consumption in China should gradually decline.
We have cut our nickel price assumption for 2022 reflecting subdued demand from the stainless steel sector, while production levels remain healthy, particularly in Russia and Indonesia. However, long-term demand from electric vehicle production should support longer-term prices.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Monday, 08 January 24
KOSPO TO BUY 80000 MT OF INDONESIAN LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL FOR FEB 2024
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for the supply of Indonesian Low Calorific Value Coal from qualified suppliers for Korean ...
Monday, 08 January 24
SEABORNE TRADE REACHES 12.4BN TONNES - CLARKSONS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
Monday, 08 January 24
CAPESIZES START THE NEW YEAR ON POSITIVE NOTE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
This week the capsize market has been marked by a mix of activities and challenges. Despite a slow start following the Christmas and N ...
Friday, 05 January 24
MORGAN STANLEY SEES LOWER OIL PRICES IN 2024 ON OVERSUPPLY CONCERNS - REUTERS
Morgan Stanley sees Brent crude prices anchored near $80 per barrel in the first half in 2024 before declining towards the end of the year as it ex ...
Friday, 05 January 24
INDIA'S COAL OUTPUT RISES NEARLY 11 PC IN DEC TO 92.87 MT - PTI
India’s coal production increased by 10.75 per cent to 92.87 million tonne in December 2023 as compared to the year-ago period, an official s ...
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Planning Commission, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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