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Saturday, 17 September 22
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS & MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has revised its metals and mining price assumptions reflecting evolving economic growth expectations and demand and supply dynamics.
Short-term assumptions for copper, aluminium, nickel, zinc, iron ore and hard coking coal have been cut, reflecting lower current prices and increasing uncertainties over short-term demand. At the same time short- and medium-term assumptions for thermal coal have been raised reflecting increased demand due to the energy crisis in Europe.
Our reduced copper assumptions for 2022-2023 reflect a global economic slowdown and expectations of weaker demand in the short term compared with supply prospects, which we anticipate to lead to a small surplus in 2023, although the market is likely to remain tight. We expect small demand increases in China in 2022-2023 due to periodic lockdowns and a decline in the country’s construction sector, while consumption growth in other regions is only marginally higher than that in China. Nevertheless, medium-term prospects remain solid due to the energy transition accounting for 50% of growth in global copper demand anticipated over the next five years. Our medium- and long-term assumptions therefore remain unchanged.
We have cut the 2022 iron ore and coking coal price assumptions reflecting ytd pricing on lower steel demand, particularly in China, which leads to steel production curtailments and lower demand for steelmaking inputs, falling steel producers’ margins and build-up of iron ore inventories. At the same time, met coal supply has improved as Australian production recovered and Russian producers redirected some of their output from Europe to Asia. However, the market prices for met coal have bottomed out, while some hard coking coal producers started diverting sales to the thermal coal market, which benefits from high demand and pricing. However, our medium- and long-term views of the iron ore and met coal markets remain unchanged.
The lowered aluminium assumptions for 2022-2023 reflect changing market sentiments that lead to reduced prices in the short term, while market fundamentals and our longer-term assumptions are unchanged. Lower demand, particularly due to weaknesses of the Chinese construction market, will weigh on aluminium prices in the short term. However, rising energy prices could turn production in many markets loss-making, leading to curtailment and shoring up prices from further decline.
We have reduced zinc assumptions for 2022-2023 as inflationary and recessionary pressures and energy issues weigh on demand, while mine production remains flat, leading to market surpluses in the short term. However, price-elastic supply should support market rebalancing in the medium term.
All gold price assumptions remain unchanged, reflecting the metal’s ‘safe haven’ investment status amid high geopolitical instability and inflationary pressures. The market price has been moderating during most of 2022 in line with our expectations of interest-rate hikes, while the strong US dollar will continue pushing the price down. We expect gold prices to moderate in the longer term once geopolitical risks abate and as the interest-rate hiking cycle continues.
Our increased 2022-2025 assumptions for both thermal coal price benchmarks reflect strong demand, particularly from China, against the backdrop of higher energy prices, particular high European gas prices, leading to increased reliance on coal-powered energy generation. The increased price assumptions for 2024-2025 also incorporate higher coal mining costs and limited expected new capacity in the main producing countries. However, our long-term assumptions remain unchanged as consumption in China should gradually decline.
We have cut our nickel price assumption for 2022 reflecting subdued demand from the stainless steel sector, while production levels remain healthy, particularly in Russia and Indonesia. However, long-term demand from electric vehicle production should support longer-term prices.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 01 December 23
COAL MINERS GROUP EXPECTS INDONESIA’S 2023 COAL OUTPUT TO SURPASS TARGET - REUTERS
The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (ICMA) expects the country’s 2023 coal output to surpass the official target of 695 million metric ton ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL IMPORTS TO INDIA IN OCTOBER 2023 REACHED HIGHEST LEVELS IN NEARLY A YEAR AND A HALF - VESSELSVALUE, VESON NAUTICAL
In October, coal imports to India reached 13.8 mt in October 2023, according to Oceanbolt, a Veson Nautical solution, the highest level since May 2 ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL SHIPMENTS TO ADVANCED ECONOMIES DOWN 17% SO FAR IN 2023 - BIMCO
In the first ten months of 2023, coal shipments to advanced economies fell by 17% y/y, as demand for electricity declined and the share of electric ...
Friday, 24 November 23
INTELLIGENT COAL MINES CONTRIBUTE TO IMPROVING SAFETY STANDARDS - CHINA DAILY
Mechanization, automation and intelligent upgrades have contributed to improved safety in coal mines, though the level of development of intelligen ...
Friday, 24 November 23
WHY AUSTRALIA'S COAL MINES ARE GETTING BIGGER - IEEFA
Australia’s largest coal mines are getting larger. Mines in New South Wales (NSW) are ramping up production following the state’s recov ...
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Coal Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
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