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Saturday, 17 September 22
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS & MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has revised its metals and mining price assumptions reflecting evolving economic growth expectations and demand and supply dynamics.
Short-term assumptions for copper, aluminium, nickel, zinc, iron ore and hard coking coal have been cut, reflecting lower current prices and increasing uncertainties over short-term demand. At the same time short- and medium-term assumptions for thermal coal have been raised reflecting increased demand due to the energy crisis in Europe.
Our reduced copper assumptions for 2022-2023 reflect a global economic slowdown and expectations of weaker demand in the short term compared with supply prospects, which we anticipate to lead to a small surplus in 2023, although the market is likely to remain tight. We expect small demand increases in China in 2022-2023 due to periodic lockdowns and a decline in the country’s construction sector, while consumption growth in other regions is only marginally higher than that in China. Nevertheless, medium-term prospects remain solid due to the energy transition accounting for 50% of growth in global copper demand anticipated over the next five years. Our medium- and long-term assumptions therefore remain unchanged.
We have cut the 2022 iron ore and coking coal price assumptions reflecting ytd pricing on lower steel demand, particularly in China, which leads to steel production curtailments and lower demand for steelmaking inputs, falling steel producers’ margins and build-up of iron ore inventories. At the same time, met coal supply has improved as Australian production recovered and Russian producers redirected some of their output from Europe to Asia. However, the market prices for met coal have bottomed out, while some hard coking coal producers started diverting sales to the thermal coal market, which benefits from high demand and pricing. However, our medium- and long-term views of the iron ore and met coal markets remain unchanged.
The lowered aluminium assumptions for 2022-2023 reflect changing market sentiments that lead to reduced prices in the short term, while market fundamentals and our longer-term assumptions are unchanged. Lower demand, particularly due to weaknesses of the Chinese construction market, will weigh on aluminium prices in the short term. However, rising energy prices could turn production in many markets loss-making, leading to curtailment and shoring up prices from further decline.
We have reduced zinc assumptions for 2022-2023 as inflationary and recessionary pressures and energy issues weigh on demand, while mine production remains flat, leading to market surpluses in the short term. However, price-elastic supply should support market rebalancing in the medium term.
All gold price assumptions remain unchanged, reflecting the metal’s ‘safe haven’ investment status amid high geopolitical instability and inflationary pressures. The market price has been moderating during most of 2022 in line with our expectations of interest-rate hikes, while the strong US dollar will continue pushing the price down. We expect gold prices to moderate in the longer term once geopolitical risks abate and as the interest-rate hiking cycle continues.
Our increased 2022-2025 assumptions for both thermal coal price benchmarks reflect strong demand, particularly from China, against the backdrop of higher energy prices, particular high European gas prices, leading to increased reliance on coal-powered energy generation. The increased price assumptions for 2024-2025 also incorporate higher coal mining costs and limited expected new capacity in the main producing countries. However, our long-term assumptions remain unchanged as consumption in China should gradually decline.
We have cut our nickel price assumption for 2022 reflecting subdued demand from the stainless steel sector, while production levels remain healthy, particularly in Russia and Indonesia. However, long-term demand from electric vehicle production should support longer-term prices.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Tuesday, 14 November 23
CHINA'S BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE TURNS AWAY FROM COAL - WOOD MACKENZIE
Ambitious, contentious and big spending, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is 10 years old. In that time, China has splashed more than U ...
Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and ...
Friday, 10 November 23
COAL USE AT U.S. POWER PLANTS CONTINUES DOWNWARD SPIRAL; FULL IMPACT ON MINES TO BE FELT IN 2024 - IEEFA
This year, the use of coal by the U.S.’s power producers has been so anemic that the fuel has not achieved a 20% market share in any month so ...
Friday, 10 November 23
INDIA: NATIONAL COAL INDEX RISES 3.83 POINTS IN SEPTEMBER AMID HIGHER DEMAND - LIVEMINT
The National Coal Index (NCI) rose 3.83 points to 143.91 in September amid growing demand for coal.
The union coal ministry on Tuesd ...
Thursday, 09 November 23
WE'RE PRODUCING TOO MUCH COAL, OIL AND GAS, REPORT SAYS - WSJ
World leaders pledged in 2015 to reduce emissions in a combined effort to limit climate change.
Now they are stepping up production ...
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
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