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Saturday, 17 September 22
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS & MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has revised its metals and mining price assumptions reflecting evolving economic growth expectations and demand and supply dynamics.
Short-term assumptions for copper, aluminium, nickel, zinc, iron ore and hard coking coal have been cut, reflecting lower current prices and increasing uncertainties over short-term demand. At the same time short- and medium-term assumptions for thermal coal have been raised reflecting increased demand due to the energy crisis in Europe.
Our reduced copper assumptions for 2022-2023 reflect a global economic slowdown and expectations of weaker demand in the short term compared with supply prospects, which we anticipate to lead to a small surplus in 2023, although the market is likely to remain tight. We expect small demand increases in China in 2022-2023 due to periodic lockdowns and a decline in the country’s construction sector, while consumption growth in other regions is only marginally higher than that in China. Nevertheless, medium-term prospects remain solid due to the energy transition accounting for 50% of growth in global copper demand anticipated over the next five years. Our medium- and long-term assumptions therefore remain unchanged.
We have cut the 2022 iron ore and coking coal price assumptions reflecting ytd pricing on lower steel demand, particularly in China, which leads to steel production curtailments and lower demand for steelmaking inputs, falling steel producers’ margins and build-up of iron ore inventories. At the same time, met coal supply has improved as Australian production recovered and Russian producers redirected some of their output from Europe to Asia. However, the market prices for met coal have bottomed out, while some hard coking coal producers started diverting sales to the thermal coal market, which benefits from high demand and pricing. However, our medium- and long-term views of the iron ore and met coal markets remain unchanged.
The lowered aluminium assumptions for 2022-2023 reflect changing market sentiments that lead to reduced prices in the short term, while market fundamentals and our longer-term assumptions are unchanged. Lower demand, particularly due to weaknesses of the Chinese construction market, will weigh on aluminium prices in the short term. However, rising energy prices could turn production in many markets loss-making, leading to curtailment and shoring up prices from further decline.
We have reduced zinc assumptions for 2022-2023 as inflationary and recessionary pressures and energy issues weigh on demand, while mine production remains flat, leading to market surpluses in the short term. However, price-elastic supply should support market rebalancing in the medium term.
All gold price assumptions remain unchanged, reflecting the metal’s ‘safe haven’ investment status amid high geopolitical instability and inflationary pressures. The market price has been moderating during most of 2022 in line with our expectations of interest-rate hikes, while the strong US dollar will continue pushing the price down. We expect gold prices to moderate in the longer term once geopolitical risks abate and as the interest-rate hiking cycle continues.
Our increased 2022-2025 assumptions for both thermal coal price benchmarks reflect strong demand, particularly from China, against the backdrop of higher energy prices, particular high European gas prices, leading to increased reliance on coal-powered energy generation. The increased price assumptions for 2024-2025 also incorporate higher coal mining costs and limited expected new capacity in the main producing countries. However, our long-term assumptions remain unchanged as consumption in China should gradually decline.
We have cut our nickel price assumption for 2022 reflecting subdued demand from the stainless steel sector, while production levels remain healthy, particularly in Russia and Indonesia. However, long-term demand from electric vehicle production should support longer-term prices.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Thursday, 09 November 23
GREEK AND CHINESE COMPANIES OWN 34% OF THE GLOBAL FLEET’S CARGO CAPACITY - BIMCO
“The global fleet of cargo carrying ships consists of around 61,000 ships with a deadweight capacity of about 2,200 million tonnes. The ships ...
Monday, 23 October 23
CHINA SEPT COAL OUTPUT HITS SIX-MONTH HIGH ON RISING POWER DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s September coal output rose 0.4% from August to the highest level since March, official data showed on Wednesday, on rising power dema ...
Monday, 23 October 23
INDIA COAL INVENTORIES DROP AT FASTEST PACE IN TWO YEARS, BOOSTING IMPORTS - REUTERS
Coal inventories at Indian power plants in the first half of October fell at their fastest rate in two years, an analysis of government data showed ...
Tuesday, 19 September 23
LNG SHIPPING STOCKS: THE ASIAN GROWTH UP-INDICES
Last week, the UP World LNG Shipping Index (UPI) gained 3.81 points or 2.51%, closing at 155.85 points. This index tracks the performance of LNG sh ...
Sunday, 10 September 23
GOLDMAN SACHS PREDICTS OIL PRICE TO HIT $100 ON OPEC CUTS - YAHOO FINANCE
Oil supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia could lead to Brent crude jumping as high as $107 a barrel in 2024, Goldman Sachs Commodities Research h ...
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- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Planning Commission, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The University of Queensland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Coal Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
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