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Saturday, 17 September 22
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS & MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has revised its metals and mining price assumptions reflecting evolving economic growth expectations and demand and supply dynamics.
Short-term assumptions for copper, aluminium, nickel, zinc, iron ore and hard coking coal have been cut, reflecting lower current prices and increasing uncertainties over short-term demand. At the same time short- and medium-term assumptions for thermal coal have been raised reflecting increased demand due to the energy crisis in Europe.
Our reduced copper assumptions for 2022-2023 reflect a global economic slowdown and expectations of weaker demand in the short term compared with supply prospects, which we anticipate to lead to a small surplus in 2023, although the market is likely to remain tight. We expect small demand increases in China in 2022-2023 due to periodic lockdowns and a decline in the country’s construction sector, while consumption growth in other regions is only marginally higher than that in China. Nevertheless, medium-term prospects remain solid due to the energy transition accounting for 50% of growth in global copper demand anticipated over the next five years. Our medium- and long-term assumptions therefore remain unchanged.
We have cut the 2022 iron ore and coking coal price assumptions reflecting ytd pricing on lower steel demand, particularly in China, which leads to steel production curtailments and lower demand for steelmaking inputs, falling steel producers’ margins and build-up of iron ore inventories. At the same time, met coal supply has improved as Australian production recovered and Russian producers redirected some of their output from Europe to Asia. However, the market prices for met coal have bottomed out, while some hard coking coal producers started diverting sales to the thermal coal market, which benefits from high demand and pricing. However, our medium- and long-term views of the iron ore and met coal markets remain unchanged.
The lowered aluminium assumptions for 2022-2023 reflect changing market sentiments that lead to reduced prices in the short term, while market fundamentals and our longer-term assumptions are unchanged. Lower demand, particularly due to weaknesses of the Chinese construction market, will weigh on aluminium prices in the short term. However, rising energy prices could turn production in many markets loss-making, leading to curtailment and shoring up prices from further decline.
We have reduced zinc assumptions for 2022-2023 as inflationary and recessionary pressures and energy issues weigh on demand, while mine production remains flat, leading to market surpluses in the short term. However, price-elastic supply should support market rebalancing in the medium term.
All gold price assumptions remain unchanged, reflecting the metal’s ‘safe haven’ investment status amid high geopolitical instability and inflationary pressures. The market price has been moderating during most of 2022 in line with our expectations of interest-rate hikes, while the strong US dollar will continue pushing the price down. We expect gold prices to moderate in the longer term once geopolitical risks abate and as the interest-rate hiking cycle continues.
Our increased 2022-2025 assumptions for both thermal coal price benchmarks reflect strong demand, particularly from China, against the backdrop of higher energy prices, particular high European gas prices, leading to increased reliance on coal-powered energy generation. The increased price assumptions for 2024-2025 also incorporate higher coal mining costs and limited expected new capacity in the main producing countries. However, our long-term assumptions remain unchanged as consumption in China should gradually decline.
We have cut our nickel price assumption for 2022 reflecting subdued demand from the stainless steel sector, while production levels remain healthy, particularly in Russia and Indonesia. However, long-term demand from electric vehicle production should support longer-term prices.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Sunday, 10 September 23
CHINA AUGUST COAL IMPORTS OF 44.3 MLN T HIT RECORD - REUTERS
China, the world’s top coal consumer, imported 44.3 million metric tons of the fuel last month, customs data showed, the highest amount in an ...
Tuesday, 22 August 23
CHINA'S COAL PRODUCTION LOGS STEADY GROWTH IN JANUARY-JULY: XINHUA
China’s output of raw coal went up 3.6 percent year on year in the first seven months of this year, official data showed.
The ...
Sunday, 13 August 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: LNG SUPPLY RISKS LINGER - ING
Energy – OPEC sees deficit over remainder of 2023
Oil prices came under some pressure yesterday with ICE Brent settling a litt ...
Wednesday, 09 August 23
COAL TRADE TO RETURN TO 2019 LEVELS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The International Energy Agency’s mid-year Coal Market Update for 2023 brings both positive and concerning news for the global coal industry. ...
Sunday, 23 July 23
ANALYSIS-INDIA'S COAL MINING BET STUMBLES AS WARY BANKS WEIGH RISING RISKS - REUTERS
India’s drive to ramp up coal output to meet growing energy demand is faltering due to banks’ reluctance to finance newly auctioned min ...
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- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Coal Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
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