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Saturday, 17 September 22
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS & MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has revised its metals and mining price assumptions reflecting evolving economic growth expectations and demand and supply dynamics.
Short-term assumptions for copper, aluminium, nickel, zinc, iron ore and hard coking coal have been cut, reflecting lower current prices and increasing uncertainties over short-term demand. At the same time short- and medium-term assumptions for thermal coal have been raised reflecting increased demand due to the energy crisis in Europe.
Our reduced copper assumptions for 2022-2023 reflect a global economic slowdown and expectations of weaker demand in the short term compared with supply prospects, which we anticipate to lead to a small surplus in 2023, although the market is likely to remain tight. We expect small demand increases in China in 2022-2023 due to periodic lockdowns and a decline in the country’s construction sector, while consumption growth in other regions is only marginally higher than that in China. Nevertheless, medium-term prospects remain solid due to the energy transition accounting for 50% of growth in global copper demand anticipated over the next five years. Our medium- and long-term assumptions therefore remain unchanged.
We have cut the 2022 iron ore and coking coal price assumptions reflecting ytd pricing on lower steel demand, particularly in China, which leads to steel production curtailments and lower demand for steelmaking inputs, falling steel producers’ margins and build-up of iron ore inventories. At the same time, met coal supply has improved as Australian production recovered and Russian producers redirected some of their output from Europe to Asia. However, the market prices for met coal have bottomed out, while some hard coking coal producers started diverting sales to the thermal coal market, which benefits from high demand and pricing. However, our medium- and long-term views of the iron ore and met coal markets remain unchanged.
The lowered aluminium assumptions for 2022-2023 reflect changing market sentiments that lead to reduced prices in the short term, while market fundamentals and our longer-term assumptions are unchanged. Lower demand, particularly due to weaknesses of the Chinese construction market, will weigh on aluminium prices in the short term. However, rising energy prices could turn production in many markets loss-making, leading to curtailment and shoring up prices from further decline.
We have reduced zinc assumptions for 2022-2023 as inflationary and recessionary pressures and energy issues weigh on demand, while mine production remains flat, leading to market surpluses in the short term. However, price-elastic supply should support market rebalancing in the medium term.
All gold price assumptions remain unchanged, reflecting the metal’s ‘safe haven’ investment status amid high geopolitical instability and inflationary pressures. The market price has been moderating during most of 2022 in line with our expectations of interest-rate hikes, while the strong US dollar will continue pushing the price down. We expect gold prices to moderate in the longer term once geopolitical risks abate and as the interest-rate hiking cycle continues.
Our increased 2022-2025 assumptions for both thermal coal price benchmarks reflect strong demand, particularly from China, against the backdrop of higher energy prices, particular high European gas prices, leading to increased reliance on coal-powered energy generation. The increased price assumptions for 2024-2025 also incorporate higher coal mining costs and limited expected new capacity in the main producing countries. However, our long-term assumptions remain unchanged as consumption in China should gradually decline.
We have cut our nickel price assumption for 2022 reflecting subdued demand from the stainless steel sector, while production levels remain healthy, particularly in Russia and Indonesia. However, long-term demand from electric vehicle production should support longer-term prices.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Monday, 17 July 23
APPROVED AMMONIA-FUELED CONTAINERSHIP - BENEFITS AND RISKS: REED SMITH
Following the news in Offshore Energy that Korea Maritime Consultants has secured approval in principle from the American Bureau of Shipping for it ...
Friday, 14 July 23
CLEAN COAL USE KEY TO DEEP CUTS IN EMISSIONS, STABLE ELECTRICITY SUPPLY - CHINA DAILY
China must push for the clean use of coal and step up integration of the dirty fuel with carbon capture, utilization and storage to achieve sustain ...
Thursday, 13 July 23
VIETNAM'S COAL EMISSIONS PRIMED FOR SURGE AFTER IMPORTS JUMP - REUTERS
Vietnam’s thermal power emissions are primed for a steep climb this summer after the country’s imports of thermal coal soared to their ...
Monday, 26 June 23
COAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION UP IN 2022 - EUROSTAT
In 2022, EU coal production and consumption continued to increase, reaching 349 million tonnes (+5% compared with the previous year) and 454 millio ...
Wednesday, 21 June 23
QATAR STRIKES SECOND BIG LNG SUPPLY DEAL WITH CHINA - REUTERS
Qatar on Tuesday secured its second large gas supply deal with a Chinese state-controlled company in less than a year, putting Asia clearly ahead i ...
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- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
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