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Saturday, 17 September 22
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS & MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has revised its metals and mining price assumptions reflecting evolving economic growth expectations and demand and supply dynamics.
Short-term assumptions for copper, aluminium, nickel, zinc, iron ore and hard coking coal have been cut, reflecting lower current prices and increasing uncertainties over short-term demand. At the same time short- and medium-term assumptions for thermal coal have been raised reflecting increased demand due to the energy crisis in Europe.
Our reduced copper assumptions for 2022-2023 reflect a global economic slowdown and expectations of weaker demand in the short term compared with supply prospects, which we anticipate to lead to a small surplus in 2023, although the market is likely to remain tight. We expect small demand increases in China in 2022-2023 due to periodic lockdowns and a decline in the country’s construction sector, while consumption growth in other regions is only marginally higher than that in China. Nevertheless, medium-term prospects remain solid due to the energy transition accounting for 50% of growth in global copper demand anticipated over the next five years. Our medium- and long-term assumptions therefore remain unchanged.
We have cut the 2022 iron ore and coking coal price assumptions reflecting ytd pricing on lower steel demand, particularly in China, which leads to steel production curtailments and lower demand for steelmaking inputs, falling steel producers’ margins and build-up of iron ore inventories. At the same time, met coal supply has improved as Australian production recovered and Russian producers redirected some of their output from Europe to Asia. However, the market prices for met coal have bottomed out, while some hard coking coal producers started diverting sales to the thermal coal market, which benefits from high demand and pricing. However, our medium- and long-term views of the iron ore and met coal markets remain unchanged.
The lowered aluminium assumptions for 2022-2023 reflect changing market sentiments that lead to reduced prices in the short term, while market fundamentals and our longer-term assumptions are unchanged. Lower demand, particularly due to weaknesses of the Chinese construction market, will weigh on aluminium prices in the short term. However, rising energy prices could turn production in many markets loss-making, leading to curtailment and shoring up prices from further decline.
We have reduced zinc assumptions for 2022-2023 as inflationary and recessionary pressures and energy issues weigh on demand, while mine production remains flat, leading to market surpluses in the short term. However, price-elastic supply should support market rebalancing in the medium term.
All gold price assumptions remain unchanged, reflecting the metal’s ‘safe haven’ investment status amid high geopolitical instability and inflationary pressures. The market price has been moderating during most of 2022 in line with our expectations of interest-rate hikes, while the strong US dollar will continue pushing the price down. We expect gold prices to moderate in the longer term once geopolitical risks abate and as the interest-rate hiking cycle continues.
Our increased 2022-2025 assumptions for both thermal coal price benchmarks reflect strong demand, particularly from China, against the backdrop of higher energy prices, particular high European gas prices, leading to increased reliance on coal-powered energy generation. The increased price assumptions for 2024-2025 also incorporate higher coal mining costs and limited expected new capacity in the main producing countries. However, our long-term assumptions remain unchanged as consumption in China should gradually decline.
We have cut our nickel price assumption for 2022 reflecting subdued demand from the stainless steel sector, while production levels remain healthy, particularly in Russia and Indonesia. However, long-term demand from electric vehicle production should support longer-term prices.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 21 June 23
CHINA'S MAY COAL IMPORTS FROM AUSTRALIA RECOVER TO PRE-BAN LEVELS - REUTERS
Australian coal sales to China increased in May, as trade resumed between them even as overall coal demand weakened against an uncertain macroecono ...
Monday, 19 June 23
DROUGHT-DEPLETED HYDROPOWER DRIVES CHINA TO TURN TO COAL - REUTERS
China has leant hard on coal-fired power plants as well as wind and solar generators to make up for a shortfall in hydroelectric generation as a re ...
Monday, 19 June 23
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 4.2 PCT IN MAY - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted steady growth in May, official data showed.
The country produced 390 million tonnes of raw coal ...
Wednesday, 24 May 23
AMMONIA-FUELLED BULK CARRIERS WITHIN FIVE YEARS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Within five years, ships powered by clean ammonia could be a feature on the iron ore trade routes between West Australia and East Asia.
A study ...
Tuesday, 23 May 23
CHINA'S APRIL COAL OUTPUT LEAPS 11% ON YEAR, BUT DEMAND DOWNTURN LOOMS - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output in April jumped 11% from the same month a year earlier, boosted by Beijing’s order to increase supply to ensu ...
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
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- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
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- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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- Sical Logistics Limited - India
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- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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