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Saturday, 17 September 22
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS & MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has revised its metals and mining price assumptions reflecting evolving economic growth expectations and demand and supply dynamics.
Short-term assumptions for copper, aluminium, nickel, zinc, iron ore and hard coking coal have been cut, reflecting lower current prices and increasing uncertainties over short-term demand. At the same time short- and medium-term assumptions for thermal coal have been raised reflecting increased demand due to the energy crisis in Europe.
Our reduced copper assumptions for 2022-2023 reflect a global economic slowdown and expectations of weaker demand in the short term compared with supply prospects, which we anticipate to lead to a small surplus in 2023, although the market is likely to remain tight. We expect small demand increases in China in 2022-2023 due to periodic lockdowns and a decline in the country’s construction sector, while consumption growth in other regions is only marginally higher than that in China. Nevertheless, medium-term prospects remain solid due to the energy transition accounting for 50% of growth in global copper demand anticipated over the next five years. Our medium- and long-term assumptions therefore remain unchanged.
We have cut the 2022 iron ore and coking coal price assumptions reflecting ytd pricing on lower steel demand, particularly in China, which leads to steel production curtailments and lower demand for steelmaking inputs, falling steel producers’ margins and build-up of iron ore inventories. At the same time, met coal supply has improved as Australian production recovered and Russian producers redirected some of their output from Europe to Asia. However, the market prices for met coal have bottomed out, while some hard coking coal producers started diverting sales to the thermal coal market, which benefits from high demand and pricing. However, our medium- and long-term views of the iron ore and met coal markets remain unchanged.
The lowered aluminium assumptions for 2022-2023 reflect changing market sentiments that lead to reduced prices in the short term, while market fundamentals and our longer-term assumptions are unchanged. Lower demand, particularly due to weaknesses of the Chinese construction market, will weigh on aluminium prices in the short term. However, rising energy prices could turn production in many markets loss-making, leading to curtailment and shoring up prices from further decline.
We have reduced zinc assumptions for 2022-2023 as inflationary and recessionary pressures and energy issues weigh on demand, while mine production remains flat, leading to market surpluses in the short term. However, price-elastic supply should support market rebalancing in the medium term.
All gold price assumptions remain unchanged, reflecting the metal’s ‘safe haven’ investment status amid high geopolitical instability and inflationary pressures. The market price has been moderating during most of 2022 in line with our expectations of interest-rate hikes, while the strong US dollar will continue pushing the price down. We expect gold prices to moderate in the longer term once geopolitical risks abate and as the interest-rate hiking cycle continues.
Our increased 2022-2025 assumptions for both thermal coal price benchmarks reflect strong demand, particularly from China, against the backdrop of higher energy prices, particular high European gas prices, leading to increased reliance on coal-powered energy generation. The increased price assumptions for 2024-2025 also incorporate higher coal mining costs and limited expected new capacity in the main producing countries. However, our long-term assumptions remain unchanged as consumption in China should gradually decline.
We have cut our nickel price assumption for 2022 reflecting subdued demand from the stainless steel sector, while production levels remain healthy, particularly in Russia and Indonesia. However, long-term demand from electric vehicle production should support longer-term prices.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Sunday, 16 April 23
CHINA JUGGLES FOUR MAJOR ECONOMIC CHANGES IN 2023 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Change is afoot in China. Economic growth is slowing, while rising political tensions between China and the US, coupled with global supply chain re ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
CHINA'S MARCH COAL IMPORTS JUMP TO 3-YEAR HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal imports surged in March to their highest in any month over the past three years as utilities increased purchases on expectations ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
OPEC KEEPS WORLD OIL DEMAND GROWTH OUTLOOK UNCHANGED
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined in March by $3.43, or 4.2%, m-o-m to average $78.45/b. The ICE Brent first-month contract fell by $4.33, o ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
CHEAPER SPOT LNG PRICES TEMPT SOME ASIAN BUYERS AMID SUPPLY GAINS - REUTERS
Cheaper spot prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) are luring price-sensitive buyers back in Asia, with China and India recording rising imports i ...
Tuesday, 11 April 23
COAL USE CLIMBS WORLDWIDE DESPITE PROMISES TO SLASH IT - AAP
The burning of coal for electricity, cement, steel and other uses went up in 2022 despite global promises to phase down the fuel that is the bigges ...
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Planning Commission, India
- The University of Queensland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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