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Saturday, 17 September 22
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS & MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has revised its metals and mining price assumptions reflecting evolving economic growth expectations and demand and supply dynamics.
Short-term assumptions for copper, aluminium, nickel, zinc, iron ore and hard coking coal have been cut, reflecting lower current prices and increasing uncertainties over short-term demand. At the same time short- and medium-term assumptions for thermal coal have been raised reflecting increased demand due to the energy crisis in Europe.
Our reduced copper assumptions for 2022-2023 reflect a global economic slowdown and expectations of weaker demand in the short term compared with supply prospects, which we anticipate to lead to a small surplus in 2023, although the market is likely to remain tight. We expect small demand increases in China in 2022-2023 due to periodic lockdowns and a decline in the country’s construction sector, while consumption growth in other regions is only marginally higher than that in China. Nevertheless, medium-term prospects remain solid due to the energy transition accounting for 50% of growth in global copper demand anticipated over the next five years. Our medium- and long-term assumptions therefore remain unchanged.
We have cut the 2022 iron ore and coking coal price assumptions reflecting ytd pricing on lower steel demand, particularly in China, which leads to steel production curtailments and lower demand for steelmaking inputs, falling steel producers’ margins and build-up of iron ore inventories. At the same time, met coal supply has improved as Australian production recovered and Russian producers redirected some of their output from Europe to Asia. However, the market prices for met coal have bottomed out, while some hard coking coal producers started diverting sales to the thermal coal market, which benefits from high demand and pricing. However, our medium- and long-term views of the iron ore and met coal markets remain unchanged.
The lowered aluminium assumptions for 2022-2023 reflect changing market sentiments that lead to reduced prices in the short term, while market fundamentals and our longer-term assumptions are unchanged. Lower demand, particularly due to weaknesses of the Chinese construction market, will weigh on aluminium prices in the short term. However, rising energy prices could turn production in many markets loss-making, leading to curtailment and shoring up prices from further decline.
We have reduced zinc assumptions for 2022-2023 as inflationary and recessionary pressures and energy issues weigh on demand, while mine production remains flat, leading to market surpluses in the short term. However, price-elastic supply should support market rebalancing in the medium term.
All gold price assumptions remain unchanged, reflecting the metal’s ‘safe haven’ investment status amid high geopolitical instability and inflationary pressures. The market price has been moderating during most of 2022 in line with our expectations of interest-rate hikes, while the strong US dollar will continue pushing the price down. We expect gold prices to moderate in the longer term once geopolitical risks abate and as the interest-rate hiking cycle continues.
Our increased 2022-2025 assumptions for both thermal coal price benchmarks reflect strong demand, particularly from China, against the backdrop of higher energy prices, particular high European gas prices, leading to increased reliance on coal-powered energy generation. The increased price assumptions for 2024-2025 also incorporate higher coal mining costs and limited expected new capacity in the main producing countries. However, our long-term assumptions remain unchanged as consumption in China should gradually decline.
We have cut our nickel price assumption for 2022 reflecting subdued demand from the stainless steel sector, while production levels remain healthy, particularly in Russia and Indonesia. However, long-term demand from electric vehicle production should support longer-term prices.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Tuesday, 11 April 23
OIL RISES ON CHINA STIMULUS EXPECTATIONS, WEAKER DOLLAR - REUTERS
Oil prices rose on Tuesday on expectations of potential economic stimulus by China, healthy demand in the rest of Asia and a drop in U.S. crude sto ...
Sunday, 09 April 23
CHINA’S BUSINESS INCOME REBOUND POINTS TO IMPROVING ECONOMY: OFFICIAL - XINHUA
Chinese businesses have posted a strong rebound in sales revenue since the beginning of this year in the latest signal of an improving economy.
...
Sunday, 09 April 23
COAL INDIA TO BOOST SUPPLIES TO INDUSTRIES AS UTILITIES’ INVENTORIES RISE - REUTERS
Coal India Ltd will increase supplies to industries, the world’s largest coal miner said on Wednesday as fuel inventories at utilities run by ...
Thursday, 06 April 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
LNG Current Supply/Demand Dynamics
This year, LNG supply will likely exceed demand, so prices will need to decline to levels that will encourag ...
Sunday, 26 March 23
EUROPE’S RUSH TO LNG COULD TURN INTO 'WORLD’S MOST EXPENSIVE AND UNNECESSARY INSURANCE POLICY'- CNBC
Europe’s rapid buildout of liquefied natural gas infrastructure is on track to far exceed demand by the end of the decade, according to new r ...
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The University of Queensland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- White Energy Company Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
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