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Saturday, 17 September 22
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS & MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has revised its metals and mining price assumptions reflecting evolving economic growth expectations and demand and supply dynamics.
Short-term assumptions for copper, aluminium, nickel, zinc, iron ore and hard coking coal have been cut, reflecting lower current prices and increasing uncertainties over short-term demand. At the same time short- and medium-term assumptions for thermal coal have been raised reflecting increased demand due to the energy crisis in Europe.
Our reduced copper assumptions for 2022-2023 reflect a global economic slowdown and expectations of weaker demand in the short term compared with supply prospects, which we anticipate to lead to a small surplus in 2023, although the market is likely to remain tight. We expect small demand increases in China in 2022-2023 due to periodic lockdowns and a decline in the country’s construction sector, while consumption growth in other regions is only marginally higher than that in China. Nevertheless, medium-term prospects remain solid due to the energy transition accounting for 50% of growth in global copper demand anticipated over the next five years. Our medium- and long-term assumptions therefore remain unchanged.
We have cut the 2022 iron ore and coking coal price assumptions reflecting ytd pricing on lower steel demand, particularly in China, which leads to steel production curtailments and lower demand for steelmaking inputs, falling steel producers’ margins and build-up of iron ore inventories. At the same time, met coal supply has improved as Australian production recovered and Russian producers redirected some of their output from Europe to Asia. However, the market prices for met coal have bottomed out, while some hard coking coal producers started diverting sales to the thermal coal market, which benefits from high demand and pricing. However, our medium- and long-term views of the iron ore and met coal markets remain unchanged.
The lowered aluminium assumptions for 2022-2023 reflect changing market sentiments that lead to reduced prices in the short term, while market fundamentals and our longer-term assumptions are unchanged. Lower demand, particularly due to weaknesses of the Chinese construction market, will weigh on aluminium prices in the short term. However, rising energy prices could turn production in many markets loss-making, leading to curtailment and shoring up prices from further decline.
We have reduced zinc assumptions for 2022-2023 as inflationary and recessionary pressures and energy issues weigh on demand, while mine production remains flat, leading to market surpluses in the short term. However, price-elastic supply should support market rebalancing in the medium term.
All gold price assumptions remain unchanged, reflecting the metal’s ‘safe haven’ investment status amid high geopolitical instability and inflationary pressures. The market price has been moderating during most of 2022 in line with our expectations of interest-rate hikes, while the strong US dollar will continue pushing the price down. We expect gold prices to moderate in the longer term once geopolitical risks abate and as the interest-rate hiking cycle continues.
Our increased 2022-2025 assumptions for both thermal coal price benchmarks reflect strong demand, particularly from China, against the backdrop of higher energy prices, particular high European gas prices, leading to increased reliance on coal-powered energy generation. The increased price assumptions for 2024-2025 also incorporate higher coal mining costs and limited expected new capacity in the main producing countries. However, our long-term assumptions remain unchanged as consumption in China should gradually decline.
We have cut our nickel price assumption for 2022 reflecting subdued demand from the stainless steel sector, while production levels remain healthy, particularly in Russia and Indonesia. However, long-term demand from electric vehicle production should support longer-term prices.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Saturday, 25 March 23
COAL INDIA HAS STRONG CASE TO INCREASE PRICES, TALKS ON: CMD AGRAWAL - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal India (CIL) Chairman and Managing Director Pramod Agrawal said on Monday there is a “strong case” for increasing coal prices, and ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
ASIAN CRUDE PALM OIL WATCH 1Q23 - FITCH RATINGS
Malaysian benchmark crude palm oil (CPO) spot prices have averaged around USD915 per tonne (t) so far in 1Q23, sharply lower than the average of ar ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
INDONESIA’S COAL EXPORT INCREASED BY 21.0% YOY TO 388.4 MLN T IN 2022 - BANCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels. In the f ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
GLOBAL LNG-ASIA SPOT PRICES SLIP AS WEAK NORTHERN DEMAND REMAINS - REUTERS
Asian spot prices of liquefied natural gas (LNG) declined this week, falling to a 21-month low, as weak demand in the northeast Asia region continu ...
Wednesday, 22 March 23
OIL PRICE FALL SPECULATIVE, TO HIT $140 BY YEAR-END -ANDURAND: REUTERS
The recent fall in oil prices due to banking jitters is speculative and oil will hit $140 a barrel by the end of the year, hedge fund manager Pierr ...
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
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