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Saturday, 17 September 22
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS & MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has revised its metals and mining price assumptions reflecting evolving economic growth expectations and demand and supply dynamics.
Short-term assumptions for copper, aluminium, nickel, zinc, iron ore and hard coking coal have been cut, reflecting lower current prices and increasing uncertainties over short-term demand. At the same time short- and medium-term assumptions for thermal coal have been raised reflecting increased demand due to the energy crisis in Europe.
Our reduced copper assumptions for 2022-2023 reflect a global economic slowdown and expectations of weaker demand in the short term compared with supply prospects, which we anticipate to lead to a small surplus in 2023, although the market is likely to remain tight. We expect small demand increases in China in 2022-2023 due to periodic lockdowns and a decline in the country’s construction sector, while consumption growth in other regions is only marginally higher than that in China. Nevertheless, medium-term prospects remain solid due to the energy transition accounting for 50% of growth in global copper demand anticipated over the next five years. Our medium- and long-term assumptions therefore remain unchanged.
We have cut the 2022 iron ore and coking coal price assumptions reflecting ytd pricing on lower steel demand, particularly in China, which leads to steel production curtailments and lower demand for steelmaking inputs, falling steel producers’ margins and build-up of iron ore inventories. At the same time, met coal supply has improved as Australian production recovered and Russian producers redirected some of their output from Europe to Asia. However, the market prices for met coal have bottomed out, while some hard coking coal producers started diverting sales to the thermal coal market, which benefits from high demand and pricing. However, our medium- and long-term views of the iron ore and met coal markets remain unchanged.
The lowered aluminium assumptions for 2022-2023 reflect changing market sentiments that lead to reduced prices in the short term, while market fundamentals and our longer-term assumptions are unchanged. Lower demand, particularly due to weaknesses of the Chinese construction market, will weigh on aluminium prices in the short term. However, rising energy prices could turn production in many markets loss-making, leading to curtailment and shoring up prices from further decline.
We have reduced zinc assumptions for 2022-2023 as inflationary and recessionary pressures and energy issues weigh on demand, while mine production remains flat, leading to market surpluses in the short term. However, price-elastic supply should support market rebalancing in the medium term.
All gold price assumptions remain unchanged, reflecting the metal’s ‘safe haven’ investment status amid high geopolitical instability and inflationary pressures. The market price has been moderating during most of 2022 in line with our expectations of interest-rate hikes, while the strong US dollar will continue pushing the price down. We expect gold prices to moderate in the longer term once geopolitical risks abate and as the interest-rate hiking cycle continues.
Our increased 2022-2025 assumptions for both thermal coal price benchmarks reflect strong demand, particularly from China, against the backdrop of higher energy prices, particular high European gas prices, leading to increased reliance on coal-powered energy generation. The increased price assumptions for 2024-2025 also incorporate higher coal mining costs and limited expected new capacity in the main producing countries. However, our long-term assumptions remain unchanged as consumption in China should gradually decline.
We have cut our nickel price assumption for 2022 reflecting subdued demand from the stainless steel sector, while production levels remain healthy, particularly in Russia and Indonesia. However, long-term demand from electric vehicle production should support longer-term prices.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Saturday, 18 March 23
HEDGE TO OFFSET LNG VOLATILITY, TRADERS TOLD - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A shift in imports from Asia to Europe led to significant volatility in liquefied natural gas shipping last year, prompting industry experts to urg ...
Friday, 17 March 23
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE UP AROUND 2.17% IN MARCH 2023
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference up around 2.17% in March 2023.
According to the new HBA regulation No. 41.K/MB.0 ...
Saturday, 11 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Uncertainty over the recovery of Chinese demand, demand destruction in Europe, as well as weather conditions will pivot the LNG market this summer. ...
Wednesday, 08 March 23
INDONESIAN COAL REFERENCE PRICE FORMULA HAS OFFICIALLY CHANGED
Indonesian Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources has officially changed the guideline for determining the benchmark price for the sale of coal c ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA'S SEABORNE CRUDE OIL IMPORTS IN 2022 INCREASED BY 11.5% YOY - BANCHERO COSTA
2022 has turned out to be a very positive year for crude oil trade, despite the surging oil prices and risks of economic recession, Banchero Costa ...
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
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