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Saturday, 17 September 22
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS & MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has revised its metals and mining price assumptions reflecting evolving economic growth expectations and demand and supply dynamics.
Short-term assumptions for copper, aluminium, nickel, zinc, iron ore and hard coking coal have been cut, reflecting lower current prices and increasing uncertainties over short-term demand. At the same time short- and medium-term assumptions for thermal coal have been raised reflecting increased demand due to the energy crisis in Europe.
Our reduced copper assumptions for 2022-2023 reflect a global economic slowdown and expectations of weaker demand in the short term compared with supply prospects, which we anticipate to lead to a small surplus in 2023, although the market is likely to remain tight. We expect small demand increases in China in 2022-2023 due to periodic lockdowns and a decline in the country’s construction sector, while consumption growth in other regions is only marginally higher than that in China. Nevertheless, medium-term prospects remain solid due to the energy transition accounting for 50% of growth in global copper demand anticipated over the next five years. Our medium- and long-term assumptions therefore remain unchanged.
We have cut the 2022 iron ore and coking coal price assumptions reflecting ytd pricing on lower steel demand, particularly in China, which leads to steel production curtailments and lower demand for steelmaking inputs, falling steel producers’ margins and build-up of iron ore inventories. At the same time, met coal supply has improved as Australian production recovered and Russian producers redirected some of their output from Europe to Asia. However, the market prices for met coal have bottomed out, while some hard coking coal producers started diverting sales to the thermal coal market, which benefits from high demand and pricing. However, our medium- and long-term views of the iron ore and met coal markets remain unchanged.
The lowered aluminium assumptions for 2022-2023 reflect changing market sentiments that lead to reduced prices in the short term, while market fundamentals and our longer-term assumptions are unchanged. Lower demand, particularly due to weaknesses of the Chinese construction market, will weigh on aluminium prices in the short term. However, rising energy prices could turn production in many markets loss-making, leading to curtailment and shoring up prices from further decline.
We have reduced zinc assumptions for 2022-2023 as inflationary and recessionary pressures and energy issues weigh on demand, while mine production remains flat, leading to market surpluses in the short term. However, price-elastic supply should support market rebalancing in the medium term.
All gold price assumptions remain unchanged, reflecting the metal’s ‘safe haven’ investment status amid high geopolitical instability and inflationary pressures. The market price has been moderating during most of 2022 in line with our expectations of interest-rate hikes, while the strong US dollar will continue pushing the price down. We expect gold prices to moderate in the longer term once geopolitical risks abate and as the interest-rate hiking cycle continues.
Our increased 2022-2025 assumptions for both thermal coal price benchmarks reflect strong demand, particularly from China, against the backdrop of higher energy prices, particular high European gas prices, leading to increased reliance on coal-powered energy generation. The increased price assumptions for 2024-2025 also incorporate higher coal mining costs and limited expected new capacity in the main producing countries. However, our long-term assumptions remain unchanged as consumption in China should gradually decline.
We have cut our nickel price assumption for 2022 reflecting subdued demand from the stainless steel sector, while production levels remain healthy, particularly in Russia and Indonesia. However, long-term demand from electric vehicle production should support longer-term prices.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Thursday, 02 March 23
DRY BULK MARKET: THE WAY CHINA GOES, SO GOES THE MARKET - BIMCO
We expect demand growth within the 1.5-2.5% range in 2023, driven by China’s economic recovery. Improvements in consumer sentiment should hel ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA, CHINA DEMAND BOOST LOW-RANK THERMAL COAL PRICES IN ASIA - RUSSELL, REUTERS
Signs of stronger import demand from India have arrested the decline in price of the thermal coal grades most commonly sought by the world’s ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA CHEERS THE RETURN OF ‘KING COAL’ AS INDUSTRY SEES BUOYANT FUTURE - REUTERS
India’s coal industry celebrated the return of its major conference after a three-year pandemic hiatus by presenting a bullish view of demand ...
Wednesday, 01 March 23
GEO CONNECT ASIA RETURNS IN MARCH TO ACCELERATE THE REGION’S GEOSPATIAL AND LOCATION INTELLIGENCE CAPABILITIES
Press Release: The third edition of GCA will be held in conjunction with Digital Construction Asia and the inaugural Drones Asia – an event d ...
Wednesday, 01 March 23
THE DECLINE IN THE COAL PRICE SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT - INTERMODAL
Last week, the front-month API2 future rose by 3.5%, but since the beginning of the year the future has fallen by 39% to $136.65/t, while the Newca ...
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Planning Commission, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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