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Saturday, 17 September 22
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS & MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has revised its metals and mining price assumptions reflecting evolving economic growth expectations and demand and supply dynamics.
Short-term assumptions for copper, aluminium, nickel, zinc, iron ore and hard coking coal have been cut, reflecting lower current prices and increasing uncertainties over short-term demand. At the same time short- and medium-term assumptions for thermal coal have been raised reflecting increased demand due to the energy crisis in Europe.
Our reduced copper assumptions for 2022-2023 reflect a global economic slowdown and expectations of weaker demand in the short term compared with supply prospects, which we anticipate to lead to a small surplus in 2023, although the market is likely to remain tight. We expect small demand increases in China in 2022-2023 due to periodic lockdowns and a decline in the country’s construction sector, while consumption growth in other regions is only marginally higher than that in China. Nevertheless, medium-term prospects remain solid due to the energy transition accounting for 50% of growth in global copper demand anticipated over the next five years. Our medium- and long-term assumptions therefore remain unchanged.
We have cut the 2022 iron ore and coking coal price assumptions reflecting ytd pricing on lower steel demand, particularly in China, which leads to steel production curtailments and lower demand for steelmaking inputs, falling steel producers’ margins and build-up of iron ore inventories. At the same time, met coal supply has improved as Australian production recovered and Russian producers redirected some of their output from Europe to Asia. However, the market prices for met coal have bottomed out, while some hard coking coal producers started diverting sales to the thermal coal market, which benefits from high demand and pricing. However, our medium- and long-term views of the iron ore and met coal markets remain unchanged.
The lowered aluminium assumptions for 2022-2023 reflect changing market sentiments that lead to reduced prices in the short term, while market fundamentals and our longer-term assumptions are unchanged. Lower demand, particularly due to weaknesses of the Chinese construction market, will weigh on aluminium prices in the short term. However, rising energy prices could turn production in many markets loss-making, leading to curtailment and shoring up prices from further decline.
We have reduced zinc assumptions for 2022-2023 as inflationary and recessionary pressures and energy issues weigh on demand, while mine production remains flat, leading to market surpluses in the short term. However, price-elastic supply should support market rebalancing in the medium term.
All gold price assumptions remain unchanged, reflecting the metal’s ‘safe haven’ investment status amid high geopolitical instability and inflationary pressures. The market price has been moderating during most of 2022 in line with our expectations of interest-rate hikes, while the strong US dollar will continue pushing the price down. We expect gold prices to moderate in the longer term once geopolitical risks abate and as the interest-rate hiking cycle continues.
Our increased 2022-2025 assumptions for both thermal coal price benchmarks reflect strong demand, particularly from China, against the backdrop of higher energy prices, particular high European gas prices, leading to increased reliance on coal-powered energy generation. The increased price assumptions for 2024-2025 also incorporate higher coal mining costs and limited expected new capacity in the main producing countries. However, our long-term assumptions remain unchanged as consumption in China should gradually decline.
We have cut our nickel price assumption for 2022 reflecting subdued demand from the stainless steel sector, while production levels remain healthy, particularly in Russia and Indonesia. However, long-term demand from electric vehicle production should support longer-term prices.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Sunday, 26 February 23
MAWANI AND JEDDAH CHAMBER SIGN AN AGREEMENT TO BUILD INTEGRATED LOGISTICS PARK
Press Release: The Saudi Ports Authority (Mawani) and Jeddah Chamber of Commerce and Industry have today inked an agreement to set up an integrated ...
Saturday, 25 February 23
INDONESIA IS STILL BY FAR THE TOP SUPPLIER OF COAL TO CHINA - BANCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels, said ban ...
Wednesday, 22 February 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The short-term outlook of the global soybean market is currently pivoted by a combination of weather patterns that are affecting the harvest progre ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
OIL UNLIKELY TO BREAK ABOVE $100/BBL THIS YEAR, J.P.MORGAN SAYS –- REUTERS
Brent oil prices are unlikely to breach the $100 a barrel level this year, barring any significant geopolitical drivers, with OPEC+ potentially add ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
CHINA'S COAL PRICES FALL TO 1 YR-LOW, CLOUDING DEMAND AND IMPORT OUTLOOK - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal prices hit their lowest levels in a year this week on rising inventories as domestic mine production is recovering faste ...
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Planning Commission, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
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