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Saturday, 17 September 22
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS & MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has revised its metals and mining price assumptions reflecting evolving economic growth expectations and demand and supply dynamics.
Short-term assumptions for copper, aluminium, nickel, zinc, iron ore and hard coking coal have been cut, reflecting lower current prices and increasing uncertainties over short-term demand. At the same time short- and medium-term assumptions for thermal coal have been raised reflecting increased demand due to the energy crisis in Europe.
Our reduced copper assumptions for 2022-2023 reflect a global economic slowdown and expectations of weaker demand in the short term compared with supply prospects, which we anticipate to lead to a small surplus in 2023, although the market is likely to remain tight. We expect small demand increases in China in 2022-2023 due to periodic lockdowns and a decline in the country’s construction sector, while consumption growth in other regions is only marginally higher than that in China. Nevertheless, medium-term prospects remain solid due to the energy transition accounting for 50% of growth in global copper demand anticipated over the next five years. Our medium- and long-term assumptions therefore remain unchanged.
We have cut the 2022 iron ore and coking coal price assumptions reflecting ytd pricing on lower steel demand, particularly in China, which leads to steel production curtailments and lower demand for steelmaking inputs, falling steel producers’ margins and build-up of iron ore inventories. At the same time, met coal supply has improved as Australian production recovered and Russian producers redirected some of their output from Europe to Asia. However, the market prices for met coal have bottomed out, while some hard coking coal producers started diverting sales to the thermal coal market, which benefits from high demand and pricing. However, our medium- and long-term views of the iron ore and met coal markets remain unchanged.
The lowered aluminium assumptions for 2022-2023 reflect changing market sentiments that lead to reduced prices in the short term, while market fundamentals and our longer-term assumptions are unchanged. Lower demand, particularly due to weaknesses of the Chinese construction market, will weigh on aluminium prices in the short term. However, rising energy prices could turn production in many markets loss-making, leading to curtailment and shoring up prices from further decline.
We have reduced zinc assumptions for 2022-2023 as inflationary and recessionary pressures and energy issues weigh on demand, while mine production remains flat, leading to market surpluses in the short term. However, price-elastic supply should support market rebalancing in the medium term.
All gold price assumptions remain unchanged, reflecting the metal’s ‘safe haven’ investment status amid high geopolitical instability and inflationary pressures. The market price has been moderating during most of 2022 in line with our expectations of interest-rate hikes, while the strong US dollar will continue pushing the price down. We expect gold prices to moderate in the longer term once geopolitical risks abate and as the interest-rate hiking cycle continues.
Our increased 2022-2025 assumptions for both thermal coal price benchmarks reflect strong demand, particularly from China, against the backdrop of higher energy prices, particular high European gas prices, leading to increased reliance on coal-powered energy generation. The increased price assumptions for 2024-2025 also incorporate higher coal mining costs and limited expected new capacity in the main producing countries. However, our long-term assumptions remain unchanged as consumption in China should gradually decline.
We have cut our nickel price assumption for 2022 reflecting subdued demand from the stainless steel sector, while production levels remain healthy, particularly in Russia and Indonesia. However, long-term demand from electric vehicle production should support longer-term prices.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Tuesday, 13 February 24
WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NATURAL GAS SPOT PRICE IN 2024 AND 2025? EIA
We expect the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average higher in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023, but to remain lower than $3.00 per m ...
Monday, 12 February 24
US THERMAL COAL EXPORTS HIT 5-YEAR HIGHS AND TOP $5 BLN IN 2023 - REUTERS
United States exporters of thermal coal earned more than $5 billion in 2023 as they shipped out more than 32.5 million metric tons of the high-poll ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
NEW E-FUELS PROJECT TO MAKE INTERNATIONAL SHIPPING CLIMATE-NEUTRAL - RINA
Transport and trade on the ocean blue must be made much greener. This is the goal of the new €17 million European GAMMA project, where compani ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA SEES ANNUAL COAL OUTPUT UP 10.9% IN 2024/25 - REUTERS
India expects domestic coal output to increase by 10.9% to 1.13 billion metric tons in the fiscal year ending March 2025, a senior government offic ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION INCREASES BY 10.3% TO 99.73 MILLION TONNE IN JANUARY - PTI
The country’s coal output rose 10.3 per cent to 99.73 Million Tonne (MT) in January, over the same month in the previous fiscal.
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Planning Commission, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The University of Queensland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
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