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Saturday, 17 September 22
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS & MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has revised its metals and mining price assumptions reflecting evolving economic growth expectations and demand and supply dynamics.
Short-term assumptions for copper, aluminium, nickel, zinc, iron ore and hard coking coal have been cut, reflecting lower current prices and increasing uncertainties over short-term demand. At the same time short- and medium-term assumptions for thermal coal have been raised reflecting increased demand due to the energy crisis in Europe.
Our reduced copper assumptions for 2022-2023 reflect a global economic slowdown and expectations of weaker demand in the short term compared with supply prospects, which we anticipate to lead to a small surplus in 2023, although the market is likely to remain tight. We expect small demand increases in China in 2022-2023 due to periodic lockdowns and a decline in the country’s construction sector, while consumption growth in other regions is only marginally higher than that in China. Nevertheless, medium-term prospects remain solid due to the energy transition accounting for 50% of growth in global copper demand anticipated over the next five years. Our medium- and long-term assumptions therefore remain unchanged.
We have cut the 2022 iron ore and coking coal price assumptions reflecting ytd pricing on lower steel demand, particularly in China, which leads to steel production curtailments and lower demand for steelmaking inputs, falling steel producers’ margins and build-up of iron ore inventories. At the same time, met coal supply has improved as Australian production recovered and Russian producers redirected some of their output from Europe to Asia. However, the market prices for met coal have bottomed out, while some hard coking coal producers started diverting sales to the thermal coal market, which benefits from high demand and pricing. However, our medium- and long-term views of the iron ore and met coal markets remain unchanged.
The lowered aluminium assumptions for 2022-2023 reflect changing market sentiments that lead to reduced prices in the short term, while market fundamentals and our longer-term assumptions are unchanged. Lower demand, particularly due to weaknesses of the Chinese construction market, will weigh on aluminium prices in the short term. However, rising energy prices could turn production in many markets loss-making, leading to curtailment and shoring up prices from further decline.
We have reduced zinc assumptions for 2022-2023 as inflationary and recessionary pressures and energy issues weigh on demand, while mine production remains flat, leading to market surpluses in the short term. However, price-elastic supply should support market rebalancing in the medium term.
All gold price assumptions remain unchanged, reflecting the metal’s ‘safe haven’ investment status amid high geopolitical instability and inflationary pressures. The market price has been moderating during most of 2022 in line with our expectations of interest-rate hikes, while the strong US dollar will continue pushing the price down. We expect gold prices to moderate in the longer term once geopolitical risks abate and as the interest-rate hiking cycle continues.
Our increased 2022-2025 assumptions for both thermal coal price benchmarks reflect strong demand, particularly from China, against the backdrop of higher energy prices, particular high European gas prices, leading to increased reliance on coal-powered energy generation. The increased price assumptions for 2024-2025 also incorporate higher coal mining costs and limited expected new capacity in the main producing countries. However, our long-term assumptions remain unchanged as consumption in China should gradually decline.
We have cut our nickel price assumption for 2022 reflecting subdued demand from the stainless steel sector, while production levels remain healthy, particularly in Russia and Indonesia. However, long-term demand from electric vehicle production should support longer-term prices.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 22 March 24
INDONESIA APPROVES 922.14 MLN T COAL PRODUCTION QUOTA FOR 2024, ABOVE TARGET - REUTERS
Indonesia has approved coal production quotas totalling 922.14 million metric tons for 2024, Bambang Suswantono, a senior official at the mining mi ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CHINA COAL INDUSTRY GROUP EXPECTS OUTPUT GROWTH TO SLOW IN 2024 - REUTERS
China’s coal output is expected to increase 36 million metric tons, or 0.8%, to about 4.7 billion tonnes in 2024, a Chinese coal industry gro ...
Monday, 18 March 24
THREE KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM OUR EUROPE GAS MARKETS SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK Q1 2024 - WOOD MACKENZIE
European gas prices are currently back to pre-crisis levels, but with a complex series of factors affecting future supply and demand, are they set ...
Wednesday, 06 March 24
INDONESIA AIMS TO FINISH MINING OUTPUT QUOTAS APPROVAL BY END-MARCH, OFFICIAL SAYS - REUTERS
Indonesia’s has approved the mining production quotarequests from more than 120mineral companies and aims to complete the approval process th ...
Monday, 04 March 24
IS YOUR GUARANTEE A GUARANTEE? NOTE TO SHIPOWNERS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The law of guarantees is not always obvious or easy to understand without proper guidance. This article clarifies the dif ...
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Showing 26 to 30 news of total 6871 |
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- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
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