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Saturday, 17 September 22
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS & MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has revised its metals and mining price assumptions reflecting evolving economic growth expectations and demand and supply dynamics.
Short-term assumptions for copper, aluminium, nickel, zinc, iron ore and hard coking coal have been cut, reflecting lower current prices and increasing uncertainties over short-term demand. At the same time short- and medium-term assumptions for thermal coal have been raised reflecting increased demand due to the energy crisis in Europe.
Our reduced copper assumptions for 2022-2023 reflect a global economic slowdown and expectations of weaker demand in the short term compared with supply prospects, which we anticipate to lead to a small surplus in 2023, although the market is likely to remain tight. We expect small demand increases in China in 2022-2023 due to periodic lockdowns and a decline in the country’s construction sector, while consumption growth in other regions is only marginally higher than that in China. Nevertheless, medium-term prospects remain solid due to the energy transition accounting for 50% of growth in global copper demand anticipated over the next five years. Our medium- and long-term assumptions therefore remain unchanged.
We have cut the 2022 iron ore and coking coal price assumptions reflecting ytd pricing on lower steel demand, particularly in China, which leads to steel production curtailments and lower demand for steelmaking inputs, falling steel producers’ margins and build-up of iron ore inventories. At the same time, met coal supply has improved as Australian production recovered and Russian producers redirected some of their output from Europe to Asia. However, the market prices for met coal have bottomed out, while some hard coking coal producers started diverting sales to the thermal coal market, which benefits from high demand and pricing. However, our medium- and long-term views of the iron ore and met coal markets remain unchanged.
The lowered aluminium assumptions for 2022-2023 reflect changing market sentiments that lead to reduced prices in the short term, while market fundamentals and our longer-term assumptions are unchanged. Lower demand, particularly due to weaknesses of the Chinese construction market, will weigh on aluminium prices in the short term. However, rising energy prices could turn production in many markets loss-making, leading to curtailment and shoring up prices from further decline.
We have reduced zinc assumptions for 2022-2023 as inflationary and recessionary pressures and energy issues weigh on demand, while mine production remains flat, leading to market surpluses in the short term. However, price-elastic supply should support market rebalancing in the medium term.
All gold price assumptions remain unchanged, reflecting the metal’s ‘safe haven’ investment status amid high geopolitical instability and inflationary pressures. The market price has been moderating during most of 2022 in line with our expectations of interest-rate hikes, while the strong US dollar will continue pushing the price down. We expect gold prices to moderate in the longer term once geopolitical risks abate and as the interest-rate hiking cycle continues.
Our increased 2022-2025 assumptions for both thermal coal price benchmarks reflect strong demand, particularly from China, against the backdrop of higher energy prices, particular high European gas prices, leading to increased reliance on coal-powered energy generation. The increased price assumptions for 2024-2025 also incorporate higher coal mining costs and limited expected new capacity in the main producing countries. However, our long-term assumptions remain unchanged as consumption in China should gradually decline.
We have cut our nickel price assumption for 2022 reflecting subdued demand from the stainless steel sector, while production levels remain healthy, particularly in Russia and Indonesia. However, long-term demand from electric vehicle production should support longer-term prices.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 22 March 24
INDONESIA APPROVES 922.14 MLN T COAL PRODUCTION QUOTA FOR 2024, ABOVE TARGET - REUTERS
Indonesia has approved coal production quotas totalling 922.14 million metric tons for 2024, Bambang Suswantono, a senior official at the mining mi ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CHINA COAL INDUSTRY GROUP EXPECTS OUTPUT GROWTH TO SLOW IN 2024 - REUTERS
China’s coal output is expected to increase 36 million metric tons, or 0.8%, to about 4.7 billion tonnes in 2024, a Chinese coal industry gro ...
Monday, 18 March 24
THREE KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM OUR EUROPE GAS MARKETS SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK Q1 2024 - WOOD MACKENZIE
European gas prices are currently back to pre-crisis levels, but with a complex series of factors affecting future supply and demand, are they set ...
Wednesday, 06 March 24
INDONESIA AIMS TO FINISH MINING OUTPUT QUOTAS APPROVAL BY END-MARCH, OFFICIAL SAYS - REUTERS
Indonesia’s has approved the mining production quotarequests from more than 120mineral companies and aims to complete the approval process th ...
Monday, 04 March 24
IS YOUR GUARANTEE A GUARANTEE? NOTE TO SHIPOWNERS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The law of guarantees is not always obvious or easy to understand without proper guidance. This article clarifies the dif ...
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Showing 26 to 30 news of total 6871 |
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- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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