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Saturday, 17 September 22
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS & MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has revised its metals and mining price assumptions reflecting evolving economic growth expectations and demand and supply dynamics.
Short-term assumptions for copper, aluminium, nickel, zinc, iron ore and hard coking coal have been cut, reflecting lower current prices and increasing uncertainties over short-term demand. At the same time short- and medium-term assumptions for thermal coal have been raised reflecting increased demand due to the energy crisis in Europe.
Our reduced copper assumptions for 2022-2023 reflect a global economic slowdown and expectations of weaker demand in the short term compared with supply prospects, which we anticipate to lead to a small surplus in 2023, although the market is likely to remain tight. We expect small demand increases in China in 2022-2023 due to periodic lockdowns and a decline in the country’s construction sector, while consumption growth in other regions is only marginally higher than that in China. Nevertheless, medium-term prospects remain solid due to the energy transition accounting for 50% of growth in global copper demand anticipated over the next five years. Our medium- and long-term assumptions therefore remain unchanged.
We have cut the 2022 iron ore and coking coal price assumptions reflecting ytd pricing on lower steel demand, particularly in China, which leads to steel production curtailments and lower demand for steelmaking inputs, falling steel producers’ margins and build-up of iron ore inventories. At the same time, met coal supply has improved as Australian production recovered and Russian producers redirected some of their output from Europe to Asia. However, the market prices for met coal have bottomed out, while some hard coking coal producers started diverting sales to the thermal coal market, which benefits from high demand and pricing. However, our medium- and long-term views of the iron ore and met coal markets remain unchanged.
The lowered aluminium assumptions for 2022-2023 reflect changing market sentiments that lead to reduced prices in the short term, while market fundamentals and our longer-term assumptions are unchanged. Lower demand, particularly due to weaknesses of the Chinese construction market, will weigh on aluminium prices in the short term. However, rising energy prices could turn production in many markets loss-making, leading to curtailment and shoring up prices from further decline.
We have reduced zinc assumptions for 2022-2023 as inflationary and recessionary pressures and energy issues weigh on demand, while mine production remains flat, leading to market surpluses in the short term. However, price-elastic supply should support market rebalancing in the medium term.
All gold price assumptions remain unchanged, reflecting the metal’s ‘safe haven’ investment status amid high geopolitical instability and inflationary pressures. The market price has been moderating during most of 2022 in line with our expectations of interest-rate hikes, while the strong US dollar will continue pushing the price down. We expect gold prices to moderate in the longer term once geopolitical risks abate and as the interest-rate hiking cycle continues.
Our increased 2022-2025 assumptions for both thermal coal price benchmarks reflect strong demand, particularly from China, against the backdrop of higher energy prices, particular high European gas prices, leading to increased reliance on coal-powered energy generation. The increased price assumptions for 2024-2025 also incorporate higher coal mining costs and limited expected new capacity in the main producing countries. However, our long-term assumptions remain unchanged as consumption in China should gradually decline.
We have cut our nickel price assumption for 2022 reflecting subdued demand from the stainless steel sector, while production levels remain healthy, particularly in Russia and Indonesia. However, long-term demand from electric vehicle production should support longer-term prices.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Monday, 24 June 24
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Friday, 14 June 24
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Thursday, 13 June 24
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Planning Commission, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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