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Saturday, 17 September 22
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS & MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has revised its metals and mining price assumptions reflecting evolving economic growth expectations and demand and supply dynamics.
Short-term assumptions for copper, aluminium, nickel, zinc, iron ore and hard coking coal have been cut, reflecting lower current prices and increasing uncertainties over short-term demand. At the same time short- and medium-term assumptions for thermal coal have been raised reflecting increased demand due to the energy crisis in Europe.
Our reduced copper assumptions for 2022-2023 reflect a global economic slowdown and expectations of weaker demand in the short term compared with supply prospects, which we anticipate to lead to a small surplus in 2023, although the market is likely to remain tight. We expect small demand increases in China in 2022-2023 due to periodic lockdowns and a decline in the country’s construction sector, while consumption growth in other regions is only marginally higher than that in China. Nevertheless, medium-term prospects remain solid due to the energy transition accounting for 50% of growth in global copper demand anticipated over the next five years. Our medium- and long-term assumptions therefore remain unchanged.
We have cut the 2022 iron ore and coking coal price assumptions reflecting ytd pricing on lower steel demand, particularly in China, which leads to steel production curtailments and lower demand for steelmaking inputs, falling steel producers’ margins and build-up of iron ore inventories. At the same time, met coal supply has improved as Australian production recovered and Russian producers redirected some of their output from Europe to Asia. However, the market prices for met coal have bottomed out, while some hard coking coal producers started diverting sales to the thermal coal market, which benefits from high demand and pricing. However, our medium- and long-term views of the iron ore and met coal markets remain unchanged.
The lowered aluminium assumptions for 2022-2023 reflect changing market sentiments that lead to reduced prices in the short term, while market fundamentals and our longer-term assumptions are unchanged. Lower demand, particularly due to weaknesses of the Chinese construction market, will weigh on aluminium prices in the short term. However, rising energy prices could turn production in many markets loss-making, leading to curtailment and shoring up prices from further decline.
We have reduced zinc assumptions for 2022-2023 as inflationary and recessionary pressures and energy issues weigh on demand, while mine production remains flat, leading to market surpluses in the short term. However, price-elastic supply should support market rebalancing in the medium term.
All gold price assumptions remain unchanged, reflecting the metal’s ‘safe haven’ investment status amid high geopolitical instability and inflationary pressures. The market price has been moderating during most of 2022 in line with our expectations of interest-rate hikes, while the strong US dollar will continue pushing the price down. We expect gold prices to moderate in the longer term once geopolitical risks abate and as the interest-rate hiking cycle continues.
Our increased 2022-2025 assumptions for both thermal coal price benchmarks reflect strong demand, particularly from China, against the backdrop of higher energy prices, particular high European gas prices, leading to increased reliance on coal-powered energy generation. The increased price assumptions for 2024-2025 also incorporate higher coal mining costs and limited expected new capacity in the main producing countries. However, our long-term assumptions remain unchanged as consumption in China should gradually decline.
We have cut our nickel price assumption for 2022 reflecting subdued demand from the stainless steel sector, while production levels remain healthy, particularly in Russia and Indonesia. However, long-term demand from electric vehicle production should support longer-term prices.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more ...
Friday, 26 July 24
FUELEU MARITME IS COMING. IS YOUR CHARTERPARTY READY? - GARD
With less than six months to implementation of FuelEU Maritime in EU and EEA trades, there has been little published advice regarding how to alloca ...
Thursday, 04 July 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION RISES 14% IN JUNE - PTI
The country’s coal production rose by 14.49% to 84.63 million tonne (MT) in June. The country’s coal output was 73.92 MT in June last f ...
Tuesday, 02 July 24
NTPC CAPTIVE COAL OUTPUT GROWS 15% IN Q1; DESPATCH RISES 17%
State-owned NTPC on Monday reported a 15 per cent year-on-year increase in the production of coal from captives mines to 9.862 metric million tonne ...
Friday, 28 June 24
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 400,000 MT OF MINIMUM 4000 NCV COAL FOR FIVE YEARS
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for total 400,000 MT of Low Calorific Value Coal for 5 years starting from July 2024 until ...
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- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Planning Commission, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
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