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Saturday, 17 September 22
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS & MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has revised its metals and mining price assumptions reflecting evolving economic growth expectations and demand and supply dynamics.
Short-term assumptions for copper, aluminium, nickel, zinc, iron ore and hard coking coal have been cut, reflecting lower current prices and increasing uncertainties over short-term demand. At the same time short- and medium-term assumptions for thermal coal have been raised reflecting increased demand due to the energy crisis in Europe.
Our reduced copper assumptions for 2022-2023 reflect a global economic slowdown and expectations of weaker demand in the short term compared with supply prospects, which we anticipate to lead to a small surplus in 2023, although the market is likely to remain tight. We expect small demand increases in China in 2022-2023 due to periodic lockdowns and a decline in the country’s construction sector, while consumption growth in other regions is only marginally higher than that in China. Nevertheless, medium-term prospects remain solid due to the energy transition accounting for 50% of growth in global copper demand anticipated over the next five years. Our medium- and long-term assumptions therefore remain unchanged.
We have cut the 2022 iron ore and coking coal price assumptions reflecting ytd pricing on lower steel demand, particularly in China, which leads to steel production curtailments and lower demand for steelmaking inputs, falling steel producers’ margins and build-up of iron ore inventories. At the same time, met coal supply has improved as Australian production recovered and Russian producers redirected some of their output from Europe to Asia. However, the market prices for met coal have bottomed out, while some hard coking coal producers started diverting sales to the thermal coal market, which benefits from high demand and pricing. However, our medium- and long-term views of the iron ore and met coal markets remain unchanged.
The lowered aluminium assumptions for 2022-2023 reflect changing market sentiments that lead to reduced prices in the short term, while market fundamentals and our longer-term assumptions are unchanged. Lower demand, particularly due to weaknesses of the Chinese construction market, will weigh on aluminium prices in the short term. However, rising energy prices could turn production in many markets loss-making, leading to curtailment and shoring up prices from further decline.
We have reduced zinc assumptions for 2022-2023 as inflationary and recessionary pressures and energy issues weigh on demand, while mine production remains flat, leading to market surpluses in the short term. However, price-elastic supply should support market rebalancing in the medium term.
All gold price assumptions remain unchanged, reflecting the metal’s ‘safe haven’ investment status amid high geopolitical instability and inflationary pressures. The market price has been moderating during most of 2022 in line with our expectations of interest-rate hikes, while the strong US dollar will continue pushing the price down. We expect gold prices to moderate in the longer term once geopolitical risks abate and as the interest-rate hiking cycle continues.
Our increased 2022-2025 assumptions for both thermal coal price benchmarks reflect strong demand, particularly from China, against the backdrop of higher energy prices, particular high European gas prices, leading to increased reliance on coal-powered energy generation. The increased price assumptions for 2024-2025 also incorporate higher coal mining costs and limited expected new capacity in the main producing countries. However, our long-term assumptions remain unchanged as consumption in China should gradually decline.
We have cut our nickel price assumption for 2022 reflecting subdued demand from the stainless steel sector, while production levels remain healthy, particularly in Russia and Indonesia. However, long-term demand from electric vehicle production should support longer-term prices.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 28 June 24
INDIAN POWER STATIONS STOCKED WITH BUMPER COAL SUPPLY AS TRANSPORT WOES EASE - BUSINESS STANDARD
Even as power demand has touched a historic high of 250 gigawatts (Gw) amid sweltering heat this June, India’s power stations are stocked wit ...
Friday, 28 June 24
INDIA'S CY23 COAL USE LARGER THAN NORTH AMERICA, EUROPE COMBINED - THE HINDU
For the first time, India’s coal consumption surpassed that of North America and Europe combined in the calendar year 2023, said Energy Insti ...
Monday, 24 June 24
PLN'S FINANCIAL SUSTAINABILITY RESTS ON ACCELERATED COAL RETIREMENT AND RENEWABLES DEPLOYMENT - MUTYA YUSTIKA
On 28 May 2024, Indonesia’s national electricity utility, PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), released its financial report for 2023. Althoug ...
Monday, 24 June 24
INDIA'S COAL-BASED POWER DEMAND AT ALL-TIME HIGH, GOVERNMENT SAYS - REUTERS
India’s demand for coal-based power has risen by 7.3% this fiscal year to an all-time high, the government said in a statement on Wednesday.
...
Monday, 24 June 24
CHINA'S COAL INDUSTRY TURNS GREENER THROUGH INNOVATIVE APPROACHES - PEOPLE'S DAILY
At an opencast mine operated by Inner Mongolia Pingzhuang Coal Group Co. Ltd., a subsidiary of CHN Energy Investment Group (CHN Energy), a 14-meter ...
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Showing 11 to 15 news of total 6871 |
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- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The University of Queensland
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
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