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Saturday, 17 September 22
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS & MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has revised its metals and mining price assumptions reflecting evolving economic growth expectations and demand and supply dynamics.
Short-term assumptions for copper, aluminium, nickel, zinc, iron ore and hard coking coal have been cut, reflecting lower current prices and increasing uncertainties over short-term demand. At the same time short- and medium-term assumptions for thermal coal have been raised reflecting increased demand due to the energy crisis in Europe.
Our reduced copper assumptions for 2022-2023 reflect a global economic slowdown and expectations of weaker demand in the short term compared with supply prospects, which we anticipate to lead to a small surplus in 2023, although the market is likely to remain tight. We expect small demand increases in China in 2022-2023 due to periodic lockdowns and a decline in the country’s construction sector, while consumption growth in other regions is only marginally higher than that in China. Nevertheless, medium-term prospects remain solid due to the energy transition accounting for 50% of growth in global copper demand anticipated over the next five years. Our medium- and long-term assumptions therefore remain unchanged.
We have cut the 2022 iron ore and coking coal price assumptions reflecting ytd pricing on lower steel demand, particularly in China, which leads to steel production curtailments and lower demand for steelmaking inputs, falling steel producers’ margins and build-up of iron ore inventories. At the same time, met coal supply has improved as Australian production recovered and Russian producers redirected some of their output from Europe to Asia. However, the market prices for met coal have bottomed out, while some hard coking coal producers started diverting sales to the thermal coal market, which benefits from high demand and pricing. However, our medium- and long-term views of the iron ore and met coal markets remain unchanged.
The lowered aluminium assumptions for 2022-2023 reflect changing market sentiments that lead to reduced prices in the short term, while market fundamentals and our longer-term assumptions are unchanged. Lower demand, particularly due to weaknesses of the Chinese construction market, will weigh on aluminium prices in the short term. However, rising energy prices could turn production in many markets loss-making, leading to curtailment and shoring up prices from further decline.
We have reduced zinc assumptions for 2022-2023 as inflationary and recessionary pressures and energy issues weigh on demand, while mine production remains flat, leading to market surpluses in the short term. However, price-elastic supply should support market rebalancing in the medium term.
All gold price assumptions remain unchanged, reflecting the metal’s ‘safe haven’ investment status amid high geopolitical instability and inflationary pressures. The market price has been moderating during most of 2022 in line with our expectations of interest-rate hikes, while the strong US dollar will continue pushing the price down. We expect gold prices to moderate in the longer term once geopolitical risks abate and as the interest-rate hiking cycle continues.
Our increased 2022-2025 assumptions for both thermal coal price benchmarks reflect strong demand, particularly from China, against the backdrop of higher energy prices, particular high European gas prices, leading to increased reliance on coal-powered energy generation. The increased price assumptions for 2024-2025 also incorporate higher coal mining costs and limited expected new capacity in the main producing countries. However, our long-term assumptions remain unchanged as consumption in China should gradually decline.
We have cut our nickel price assumption for 2022 reflecting subdued demand from the stainless steel sector, while production levels remain healthy, particularly in Russia and Indonesia. However, long-term demand from electric vehicle production should support longer-term prices.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 06 September 24
REBOUND IN OIL DEMAND COULD LIFT MARKET IN LATTER HALF OF 2024 - BIMCO
Supply/demand
Based on a strong second half demand, the supply/balance is forecast to strengthen in 2024 but weaken slightly in 2025 as n ...
Friday, 06 September 24
GLOBAL SEABORNE LNG TRADE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE LAST YEAR - BANCHERO COSTA
Global seaborne LNG trade has continued to increase last year, helped also by the events in Ukraine which forced Europe to diversify away from Russ ...
Wednesday, 28 August 24
SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS INTO INDIA INCREASED BY +9.9% Y-O-Y TO 146.6 MLN T - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace over the past year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels said Banchero Costa Research in its lates ...
Tuesday, 06 August 24
EXERCISE CAUTION WITH AMMONIA SWITCH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A new study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has thrown a spanner into the plan to transition ships from diesel fuel to ammonia ...
Friday, 02 August 24
ENERGY MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: COAL AND NATURAL GAS PRICES REACH RECORD HIGHS - WORLD BANK
The recent surge in natural gas and coal prices has been so swift that the main benchmarks were roughly three times higher in 2022Q2 compared to a ...
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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- Planning Commission, India
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Coal Association
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
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- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
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- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
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- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The University of Queensland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- White Energy Company Limited
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
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