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Saturday, 17 September 22
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS & MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has revised its metals and mining price assumptions reflecting evolving economic growth expectations and demand and supply dynamics.
Short-term assumptions for copper, aluminium, nickel, zinc, iron ore and hard coking coal have been cut, reflecting lower current prices and increasing uncertainties over short-term demand. At the same time short- and medium-term assumptions for thermal coal have been raised reflecting increased demand due to the energy crisis in Europe.
Our reduced copper assumptions for 2022-2023 reflect a global economic slowdown and expectations of weaker demand in the short term compared with supply prospects, which we anticipate to lead to a small surplus in 2023, although the market is likely to remain tight. We expect small demand increases in China in 2022-2023 due to periodic lockdowns and a decline in the country’s construction sector, while consumption growth in other regions is only marginally higher than that in China. Nevertheless, medium-term prospects remain solid due to the energy transition accounting for 50% of growth in global copper demand anticipated over the next five years. Our medium- and long-term assumptions therefore remain unchanged.
We have cut the 2022 iron ore and coking coal price assumptions reflecting ytd pricing on lower steel demand, particularly in China, which leads to steel production curtailments and lower demand for steelmaking inputs, falling steel producers’ margins and build-up of iron ore inventories. At the same time, met coal supply has improved as Australian production recovered and Russian producers redirected some of their output from Europe to Asia. However, the market prices for met coal have bottomed out, while some hard coking coal producers started diverting sales to the thermal coal market, which benefits from high demand and pricing. However, our medium- and long-term views of the iron ore and met coal markets remain unchanged.
The lowered aluminium assumptions for 2022-2023 reflect changing market sentiments that lead to reduced prices in the short term, while market fundamentals and our longer-term assumptions are unchanged. Lower demand, particularly due to weaknesses of the Chinese construction market, will weigh on aluminium prices in the short term. However, rising energy prices could turn production in many markets loss-making, leading to curtailment and shoring up prices from further decline.
We have reduced zinc assumptions for 2022-2023 as inflationary and recessionary pressures and energy issues weigh on demand, while mine production remains flat, leading to market surpluses in the short term. However, price-elastic supply should support market rebalancing in the medium term.
All gold price assumptions remain unchanged, reflecting the metal’s ‘safe haven’ investment status amid high geopolitical instability and inflationary pressures. The market price has been moderating during most of 2022 in line with our expectations of interest-rate hikes, while the strong US dollar will continue pushing the price down. We expect gold prices to moderate in the longer term once geopolitical risks abate and as the interest-rate hiking cycle continues.
Our increased 2022-2025 assumptions for both thermal coal price benchmarks reflect strong demand, particularly from China, against the backdrop of higher energy prices, particular high European gas prices, leading to increased reliance on coal-powered energy generation. The increased price assumptions for 2024-2025 also incorporate higher coal mining costs and limited expected new capacity in the main producing countries. However, our long-term assumptions remain unchanged as consumption in China should gradually decline.
We have cut our nickel price assumption for 2022 reflecting subdued demand from the stainless steel sector, while production levels remain healthy, particularly in Russia and Indonesia. However, long-term demand from electric vehicle production should support longer-term prices.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 12 June 24
CHINA ACCOUNTS FOR 16.3% OF AUSTRALIA'S COAL EXPORTS, FOLLOWED BY INDIA 14.4% - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace in recent months, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels says Banchero Costa in its latest report.
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Wednesday, 12 June 24
LNG NEWBUILDING VALUES AT RECORD HIGH: 78 NEWBUILD ORDERS PLACED IN 2024, DOUBLING 2023 - VESON NAUTICAL
The number of LNG newbuilding orders have more than doubled from the same period last year where 34 orders were placed, compared to 78 in the first ...
Monday, 10 June 24
CHINA'S MAY COAL IMPORTS RISE 11% ON LOWER DOMESTIC OUTPUT - REUTERS
China’s imports of coal rose 11% in May from a year earlier, customs data and Reuters records showed on Friday, as lower domestic output this ...
Tuesday, 04 June 24
HOW DO WESTERN SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA IMPACT THE GLOBAL METALS, MINING AND COAL MARKETS - WOOD MACKENZIE
The geopolitical landscape for Russia, as a major supplier of various commodities, has undergone a dramatic transformation since the invasion of Uk ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CASE STUDY: DANGERS OF COAL CARGO - SKULD
Recently, a bulk cargo vessel carrying coal from South Africa to Singapore suffered a fatal accident, resulting in the deaths of three crew members ...
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Showing 21 to 25 news of total 6871 |
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- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Planning Commission, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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