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Saturday, 17 September 22
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS & MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has revised its metals and mining price assumptions reflecting evolving economic growth expectations and demand and supply dynamics.
Short-term assumptions for copper, aluminium, nickel, zinc, iron ore and hard coking coal have been cut, reflecting lower current prices and increasing uncertainties over short-term demand. At the same time short- and medium-term assumptions for thermal coal have been raised reflecting increased demand due to the energy crisis in Europe.
Our reduced copper assumptions for 2022-2023 reflect a global economic slowdown and expectations of weaker demand in the short term compared with supply prospects, which we anticipate to lead to a small surplus in 2023, although the market is likely to remain tight. We expect small demand increases in China in 2022-2023 due to periodic lockdowns and a decline in the country’s construction sector, while consumption growth in other regions is only marginally higher than that in China. Nevertheless, medium-term prospects remain solid due to the energy transition accounting for 50% of growth in global copper demand anticipated over the next five years. Our medium- and long-term assumptions therefore remain unchanged.
We have cut the 2022 iron ore and coking coal price assumptions reflecting ytd pricing on lower steel demand, particularly in China, which leads to steel production curtailments and lower demand for steelmaking inputs, falling steel producers’ margins and build-up of iron ore inventories. At the same time, met coal supply has improved as Australian production recovered and Russian producers redirected some of their output from Europe to Asia. However, the market prices for met coal have bottomed out, while some hard coking coal producers started diverting sales to the thermal coal market, which benefits from high demand and pricing. However, our medium- and long-term views of the iron ore and met coal markets remain unchanged.
The lowered aluminium assumptions for 2022-2023 reflect changing market sentiments that lead to reduced prices in the short term, while market fundamentals and our longer-term assumptions are unchanged. Lower demand, particularly due to weaknesses of the Chinese construction market, will weigh on aluminium prices in the short term. However, rising energy prices could turn production in many markets loss-making, leading to curtailment and shoring up prices from further decline.
We have reduced zinc assumptions for 2022-2023 as inflationary and recessionary pressures and energy issues weigh on demand, while mine production remains flat, leading to market surpluses in the short term. However, price-elastic supply should support market rebalancing in the medium term.
All gold price assumptions remain unchanged, reflecting the metal’s ‘safe haven’ investment status amid high geopolitical instability and inflationary pressures. The market price has been moderating during most of 2022 in line with our expectations of interest-rate hikes, while the strong US dollar will continue pushing the price down. We expect gold prices to moderate in the longer term once geopolitical risks abate and as the interest-rate hiking cycle continues.
Our increased 2022-2025 assumptions for both thermal coal price benchmarks reflect strong demand, particularly from China, against the backdrop of higher energy prices, particular high European gas prices, leading to increased reliance on coal-powered energy generation. The increased price assumptions for 2024-2025 also incorporate higher coal mining costs and limited expected new capacity in the main producing countries. However, our long-term assumptions remain unchanged as consumption in China should gradually decline.
We have cut our nickel price assumption for 2022 reflecting subdued demand from the stainless steel sector, while production levels remain healthy, particularly in Russia and Indonesia. However, long-term demand from electric vehicle production should support longer-term prices.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 23 February 24
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Thursday, 22 February 24
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Monday, 19 February 24
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Things often seem at their worst just before they get better. In terms of meeting our net zero 2050 scenario, we’ve reached a watershed momen ...
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- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- The University of Queensland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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