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Saturday, 17 September 22
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS & MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has revised its metals and mining price assumptions reflecting evolving economic growth expectations and demand and supply dynamics.
Short-term assumptions for copper, aluminium, nickel, zinc, iron ore and hard coking coal have been cut, reflecting lower current prices and increasing uncertainties over short-term demand. At the same time short- and medium-term assumptions for thermal coal have been raised reflecting increased demand due to the energy crisis in Europe.
Our reduced copper assumptions for 2022-2023 reflect a global economic slowdown and expectations of weaker demand in the short term compared with supply prospects, which we anticipate to lead to a small surplus in 2023, although the market is likely to remain tight. We expect small demand increases in China in 2022-2023 due to periodic lockdowns and a decline in the country’s construction sector, while consumption growth in other regions is only marginally higher than that in China. Nevertheless, medium-term prospects remain solid due to the energy transition accounting for 50% of growth in global copper demand anticipated over the next five years. Our medium- and long-term assumptions therefore remain unchanged.
We have cut the 2022 iron ore and coking coal price assumptions reflecting ytd pricing on lower steel demand, particularly in China, which leads to steel production curtailments and lower demand for steelmaking inputs, falling steel producers’ margins and build-up of iron ore inventories. At the same time, met coal supply has improved as Australian production recovered and Russian producers redirected some of their output from Europe to Asia. However, the market prices for met coal have bottomed out, while some hard coking coal producers started diverting sales to the thermal coal market, which benefits from high demand and pricing. However, our medium- and long-term views of the iron ore and met coal markets remain unchanged.
The lowered aluminium assumptions for 2022-2023 reflect changing market sentiments that lead to reduced prices in the short term, while market fundamentals and our longer-term assumptions are unchanged. Lower demand, particularly due to weaknesses of the Chinese construction market, will weigh on aluminium prices in the short term. However, rising energy prices could turn production in many markets loss-making, leading to curtailment and shoring up prices from further decline.
We have reduced zinc assumptions for 2022-2023 as inflationary and recessionary pressures and energy issues weigh on demand, while mine production remains flat, leading to market surpluses in the short term. However, price-elastic supply should support market rebalancing in the medium term.
All gold price assumptions remain unchanged, reflecting the metal’s ‘safe haven’ investment status amid high geopolitical instability and inflationary pressures. The market price has been moderating during most of 2022 in line with our expectations of interest-rate hikes, while the strong US dollar will continue pushing the price down. We expect gold prices to moderate in the longer term once geopolitical risks abate and as the interest-rate hiking cycle continues.
Our increased 2022-2025 assumptions for both thermal coal price benchmarks reflect strong demand, particularly from China, against the backdrop of higher energy prices, particular high European gas prices, leading to increased reliance on coal-powered energy generation. The increased price assumptions for 2024-2025 also incorporate higher coal mining costs and limited expected new capacity in the main producing countries. However, our long-term assumptions remain unchanged as consumption in China should gradually decline.
We have cut our nickel price assumption for 2022 reflecting subdued demand from the stainless steel sector, while production levels remain healthy, particularly in Russia and Indonesia. However, long-term demand from electric vehicle production should support longer-term prices.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 23 February 24
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Friday, 23 February 24
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Thursday, 22 February 24
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Monday, 19 February 24
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- The University of Queensland
- White Energy Company Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
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