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Saturday, 17 September 22
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS & MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has revised its metals and mining price assumptions reflecting evolving economic growth expectations and demand and supply dynamics.
Short-term assumptions for copper, aluminium, nickel, zinc, iron ore and hard coking coal have been cut, reflecting lower current prices and increasing uncertainties over short-term demand. At the same time short- and medium-term assumptions for thermal coal have been raised reflecting increased demand due to the energy crisis in Europe.
Our reduced copper assumptions for 2022-2023 reflect a global economic slowdown and expectations of weaker demand in the short term compared with supply prospects, which we anticipate to lead to a small surplus in 2023, although the market is likely to remain tight. We expect small demand increases in China in 2022-2023 due to periodic lockdowns and a decline in the country’s construction sector, while consumption growth in other regions is only marginally higher than that in China. Nevertheless, medium-term prospects remain solid due to the energy transition accounting for 50% of growth in global copper demand anticipated over the next five years. Our medium- and long-term assumptions therefore remain unchanged.
We have cut the 2022 iron ore and coking coal price assumptions reflecting ytd pricing on lower steel demand, particularly in China, which leads to steel production curtailments and lower demand for steelmaking inputs, falling steel producers’ margins and build-up of iron ore inventories. At the same time, met coal supply has improved as Australian production recovered and Russian producers redirected some of their output from Europe to Asia. However, the market prices for met coal have bottomed out, while some hard coking coal producers started diverting sales to the thermal coal market, which benefits from high demand and pricing. However, our medium- and long-term views of the iron ore and met coal markets remain unchanged.
The lowered aluminium assumptions for 2022-2023 reflect changing market sentiments that lead to reduced prices in the short term, while market fundamentals and our longer-term assumptions are unchanged. Lower demand, particularly due to weaknesses of the Chinese construction market, will weigh on aluminium prices in the short term. However, rising energy prices could turn production in many markets loss-making, leading to curtailment and shoring up prices from further decline.
We have reduced zinc assumptions for 2022-2023 as inflationary and recessionary pressures and energy issues weigh on demand, while mine production remains flat, leading to market surpluses in the short term. However, price-elastic supply should support market rebalancing in the medium term.
All gold price assumptions remain unchanged, reflecting the metal’s ‘safe haven’ investment status amid high geopolitical instability and inflationary pressures. The market price has been moderating during most of 2022 in line with our expectations of interest-rate hikes, while the strong US dollar will continue pushing the price down. We expect gold prices to moderate in the longer term once geopolitical risks abate and as the interest-rate hiking cycle continues.
Our increased 2022-2025 assumptions for both thermal coal price benchmarks reflect strong demand, particularly from China, against the backdrop of higher energy prices, particular high European gas prices, leading to increased reliance on coal-powered energy generation. The increased price assumptions for 2024-2025 also incorporate higher coal mining costs and limited expected new capacity in the main producing countries. However, our long-term assumptions remain unchanged as consumption in China should gradually decline.
We have cut our nickel price assumption for 2022 reflecting subdued demand from the stainless steel sector, while production levels remain healthy, particularly in Russia and Indonesia. However, long-term demand from electric vehicle production should support longer-term prices.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Thursday, 06 October 22
COAL INDIA ASKED TO ENHANCE SUPPLY TO THERMAL POWER PLANTS - IANS
With the festival season round the corner, Coal India Ltd. has been directed by the government to scale up dispatch to thermal power plants.
&n ...
Wednesday, 05 October 22
BUNKER PRICES DOWN AGAIN; IS THERE MORE TO COME? - INTEGR8 FUELS
It’s the economy…..”
VLSFO prices are now back to levels at the start of this year. After all the extremes of thi ...
Wednesday, 05 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Amid the looming western sanctions on Russia, the country is challenged to pivot its energy markets away from Europe and toward the East. Yet, Russ ...
Tuesday, 04 October 22
A REMARKABLE SHIFT IN FORTUNES HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE CRUDE OIL TANKER MARKETS - ALLIED SHIPPING
A remarkable shift in fortunes has been noted in the crude oil tanker markets over the past month, yet despite these shifts being seemingly in thei ...
Tuesday, 04 October 22
OIL PRICES COULD SOON RETURN TO $100 AS OPEC+ CONSIDERS ‘HISTORIC’ CUT, ANALYSTS SAY - CNBC
An influential alliance of some of the world’s most powerful oil producers is reportedly considering their largest output cut since the start ...
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- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
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