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Saturday, 17 September 22
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS & MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has revised its metals and mining price assumptions reflecting evolving economic growth expectations and demand and supply dynamics.
Short-term assumptions for copper, aluminium, nickel, zinc, iron ore and hard coking coal have been cut, reflecting lower current prices and increasing uncertainties over short-term demand. At the same time short- and medium-term assumptions for thermal coal have been raised reflecting increased demand due to the energy crisis in Europe.
Our reduced copper assumptions for 2022-2023 reflect a global economic slowdown and expectations of weaker demand in the short term compared with supply prospects, which we anticipate to lead to a small surplus in 2023, although the market is likely to remain tight. We expect small demand increases in China in 2022-2023 due to periodic lockdowns and a decline in the country’s construction sector, while consumption growth in other regions is only marginally higher than that in China. Nevertheless, medium-term prospects remain solid due to the energy transition accounting for 50% of growth in global copper demand anticipated over the next five years. Our medium- and long-term assumptions therefore remain unchanged.
We have cut the 2022 iron ore and coking coal price assumptions reflecting ytd pricing on lower steel demand, particularly in China, which leads to steel production curtailments and lower demand for steelmaking inputs, falling steel producers’ margins and build-up of iron ore inventories. At the same time, met coal supply has improved as Australian production recovered and Russian producers redirected some of their output from Europe to Asia. However, the market prices for met coal have bottomed out, while some hard coking coal producers started diverting sales to the thermal coal market, which benefits from high demand and pricing. However, our medium- and long-term views of the iron ore and met coal markets remain unchanged.
The lowered aluminium assumptions for 2022-2023 reflect changing market sentiments that lead to reduced prices in the short term, while market fundamentals and our longer-term assumptions are unchanged. Lower demand, particularly due to weaknesses of the Chinese construction market, will weigh on aluminium prices in the short term. However, rising energy prices could turn production in many markets loss-making, leading to curtailment and shoring up prices from further decline.
We have reduced zinc assumptions for 2022-2023 as inflationary and recessionary pressures and energy issues weigh on demand, while mine production remains flat, leading to market surpluses in the short term. However, price-elastic supply should support market rebalancing in the medium term.
All gold price assumptions remain unchanged, reflecting the metal’s ‘safe haven’ investment status amid high geopolitical instability and inflationary pressures. The market price has been moderating during most of 2022 in line with our expectations of interest-rate hikes, while the strong US dollar will continue pushing the price down. We expect gold prices to moderate in the longer term once geopolitical risks abate and as the interest-rate hiking cycle continues.
Our increased 2022-2025 assumptions for both thermal coal price benchmarks reflect strong demand, particularly from China, against the backdrop of higher energy prices, particular high European gas prices, leading to increased reliance on coal-powered energy generation. The increased price assumptions for 2024-2025 also incorporate higher coal mining costs and limited expected new capacity in the main producing countries. However, our long-term assumptions remain unchanged as consumption in China should gradually decline.
We have cut our nickel price assumption for 2022 reflecting subdued demand from the stainless steel sector, while production levels remain healthy, particularly in Russia and Indonesia. However, long-term demand from electric vehicle production should support longer-term prices.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Thursday, 13 October 22
OPEC DOWNGRADES CRUDE OIL DEMAND, AS WORLD ECONOMY ENTERS SLOWDOWN
Crude Oil Price Movements
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined m-o-m by $6.58 in September, or 6.5%, to average $95.32/b. Pressure from equ ...
Wednesday, 12 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Sale and Purchase activity during the first three quarters of 2022 has been remarkable.
Focusing only on Tankers and Bulkers, such v ...
Monday, 10 October 22
ENERGY TRANSITION BOOSTS GLOBAL LONG-TERM DEMAND FOR METALS - FITCH RATINGS
The energy transition will significantly increase demand for metals used in manufacturing of electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable power generation ...
Monday, 10 October 22
GLOBAL CEOS EXPECT IMPENDING RECESSION TO BE 'SHORT AND SHARP,' POLL SHOWS - CNBC
Global CEOs are anticipating a recession in the next 12 months, according to a new survey by professional services firm KPMG, which said more than ...
Thursday, 06 October 22
AUSTRALIA’S RESOURCES REVENUE TO HIT RECORD AMID UKRAINE CONFLICT - REUTERS
Australian resources and energy export earnings are forecast to jump 7% to a record A$450 billion ($290 billion) this fiscal year, bolstered by soa ...
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- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
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