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Saturday, 17 September 22
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS & MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has revised its metals and mining price assumptions reflecting evolving economic growth expectations and demand and supply dynamics.
Short-term assumptions for copper, aluminium, nickel, zinc, iron ore and hard coking coal have been cut, reflecting lower current prices and increasing uncertainties over short-term demand. At the same time short- and medium-term assumptions for thermal coal have been raised reflecting increased demand due to the energy crisis in Europe.
Our reduced copper assumptions for 2022-2023 reflect a global economic slowdown and expectations of weaker demand in the short term compared with supply prospects, which we anticipate to lead to a small surplus in 2023, although the market is likely to remain tight. We expect small demand increases in China in 2022-2023 due to periodic lockdowns and a decline in the country’s construction sector, while consumption growth in other regions is only marginally higher than that in China. Nevertheless, medium-term prospects remain solid due to the energy transition accounting for 50% of growth in global copper demand anticipated over the next five years. Our medium- and long-term assumptions therefore remain unchanged.
We have cut the 2022 iron ore and coking coal price assumptions reflecting ytd pricing on lower steel demand, particularly in China, which leads to steel production curtailments and lower demand for steelmaking inputs, falling steel producers’ margins and build-up of iron ore inventories. At the same time, met coal supply has improved as Australian production recovered and Russian producers redirected some of their output from Europe to Asia. However, the market prices for met coal have bottomed out, while some hard coking coal producers started diverting sales to the thermal coal market, which benefits from high demand and pricing. However, our medium- and long-term views of the iron ore and met coal markets remain unchanged.
The lowered aluminium assumptions for 2022-2023 reflect changing market sentiments that lead to reduced prices in the short term, while market fundamentals and our longer-term assumptions are unchanged. Lower demand, particularly due to weaknesses of the Chinese construction market, will weigh on aluminium prices in the short term. However, rising energy prices could turn production in many markets loss-making, leading to curtailment and shoring up prices from further decline.
We have reduced zinc assumptions for 2022-2023 as inflationary and recessionary pressures and energy issues weigh on demand, while mine production remains flat, leading to market surpluses in the short term. However, price-elastic supply should support market rebalancing in the medium term.
All gold price assumptions remain unchanged, reflecting the metal’s ‘safe haven’ investment status amid high geopolitical instability and inflationary pressures. The market price has been moderating during most of 2022 in line with our expectations of interest-rate hikes, while the strong US dollar will continue pushing the price down. We expect gold prices to moderate in the longer term once geopolitical risks abate and as the interest-rate hiking cycle continues.
Our increased 2022-2025 assumptions for both thermal coal price benchmarks reflect strong demand, particularly from China, against the backdrop of higher energy prices, particular high European gas prices, leading to increased reliance on coal-powered energy generation. The increased price assumptions for 2024-2025 also incorporate higher coal mining costs and limited expected new capacity in the main producing countries. However, our long-term assumptions remain unchanged as consumption in China should gradually decline.
We have cut our nickel price assumption for 2022 reflecting subdued demand from the stainless steel sector, while production levels remain healthy, particularly in Russia and Indonesia. However, long-term demand from electric vehicle production should support longer-term prices.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Tuesday, 04 October 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE SURGE AGAIN TO RECORD HIGH
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference reached another record high in October as Russia's war in Ukraine continues to spark a surge in c ...
Sunday, 02 October 22
MISC STRENGTHENS ITS PARTNERSHIP WITH SEARIVER MARITIME
MISC Berhad (MISC) today announced that its subsidiaries Polaris LNG Three Pte. Ltd. and Polaris LNG Four Pte. Ltd. have secured long-term time cha ...
Thursday, 29 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
This week, focus turns to the 38th APPEC Conference, where leading professionals from the global oil industry will discuss the future key drivers o ...
Thursday, 29 September 22
HIGH COAL PRICES REMAIN A CONCERN FOR DOMESTIC NON-FERROUS METAL COMPANIES - ICRA
According to ICRA on Monday, the high price of coal will have a negative effect on the profitability of domestic non-ferrous metal companies that m ...
Tuesday, 27 September 22
14% INCREASE IN EUROPEAN COAL DEMAND TO BE SHORT-TERM TREND - WOOD MACKENZIE
European seaborne thermal coal demand is projected to increase 14% or 12 million metric tonnes (Mt) this year to 98 Mt as it grapples with the curr ...
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- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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