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Saturday, 17 September 22
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS & MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has revised its metals and mining price assumptions reflecting evolving economic growth expectations and demand and supply dynamics.
Short-term assumptions for copper, aluminium, nickel, zinc, iron ore and hard coking coal have been cut, reflecting lower current prices and increasing uncertainties over short-term demand. At the same time short- and medium-term assumptions for thermal coal have been raised reflecting increased demand due to the energy crisis in Europe.
Our reduced copper assumptions for 2022-2023 reflect a global economic slowdown and expectations of weaker demand in the short term compared with supply prospects, which we anticipate to lead to a small surplus in 2023, although the market is likely to remain tight. We expect small demand increases in China in 2022-2023 due to periodic lockdowns and a decline in the country’s construction sector, while consumption growth in other regions is only marginally higher than that in China. Nevertheless, medium-term prospects remain solid due to the energy transition accounting for 50% of growth in global copper demand anticipated over the next five years. Our medium- and long-term assumptions therefore remain unchanged.
We have cut the 2022 iron ore and coking coal price assumptions reflecting ytd pricing on lower steel demand, particularly in China, which leads to steel production curtailments and lower demand for steelmaking inputs, falling steel producers’ margins and build-up of iron ore inventories. At the same time, met coal supply has improved as Australian production recovered and Russian producers redirected some of their output from Europe to Asia. However, the market prices for met coal have bottomed out, while some hard coking coal producers started diverting sales to the thermal coal market, which benefits from high demand and pricing. However, our medium- and long-term views of the iron ore and met coal markets remain unchanged.
The lowered aluminium assumptions for 2022-2023 reflect changing market sentiments that lead to reduced prices in the short term, while market fundamentals and our longer-term assumptions are unchanged. Lower demand, particularly due to weaknesses of the Chinese construction market, will weigh on aluminium prices in the short term. However, rising energy prices could turn production in many markets loss-making, leading to curtailment and shoring up prices from further decline.
We have reduced zinc assumptions for 2022-2023 as inflationary and recessionary pressures and energy issues weigh on demand, while mine production remains flat, leading to market surpluses in the short term. However, price-elastic supply should support market rebalancing in the medium term.
All gold price assumptions remain unchanged, reflecting the metal’s ‘safe haven’ investment status amid high geopolitical instability and inflationary pressures. The market price has been moderating during most of 2022 in line with our expectations of interest-rate hikes, while the strong US dollar will continue pushing the price down. We expect gold prices to moderate in the longer term once geopolitical risks abate and as the interest-rate hiking cycle continues.
Our increased 2022-2025 assumptions for both thermal coal price benchmarks reflect strong demand, particularly from China, against the backdrop of higher energy prices, particular high European gas prices, leading to increased reliance on coal-powered energy generation. The increased price assumptions for 2024-2025 also incorporate higher coal mining costs and limited expected new capacity in the main producing countries. However, our long-term assumptions remain unchanged as consumption in China should gradually decline.
We have cut our nickel price assumption for 2022 reflecting subdued demand from the stainless steel sector, while production levels remain healthy, particularly in Russia and Indonesia. However, long-term demand from electric vehicle production should support longer-term prices.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 23 September 22
CHINA DIGS DEEP TO RAISE COAL OUTPUT TO RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal production has surged this year as the government seeks to improve energy security by reducing dependence on imports and amassin ...
Friday, 23 September 22
EUROPEAN STEEL BUYERS SEEK DIRECTION IN VOLATILE MARKET - MEPS INTERNATIONAL
Demand for steel is slow to recover, after the summer break. Mill production costs continue to increase. Steel purchasers are uncertain about the f ...
Friday, 23 September 22
BUOYANT COAL INDUSTRY SEEKS WAYS TO STAY IN THE LONG-TERM ENERGY MIX - REUTERS
There’s no doubt that the global coal industry has been a major beneficiary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent energy c ...
Friday, 23 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In view of the forthcoming winter, Europe is trying to escape from its energy (oil & gas) dependency from Russia to ensure energy abundance eve ...
Tuesday, 20 September 22
CHINA'S DAILY COAL OUTPUT HITS 3-MONTH LOW IN AUGUST ON RAINS, COVID CURBS - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output in August slipped to a three-month low as some mines in its biggest coal mining regions reduced operations or even ...
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- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
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