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Saturday, 17 September 22
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS & MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has revised its metals and mining price assumptions reflecting evolving economic growth expectations and demand and supply dynamics.
Short-term assumptions for copper, aluminium, nickel, zinc, iron ore and hard coking coal have been cut, reflecting lower current prices and increasing uncertainties over short-term demand. At the same time short- and medium-term assumptions for thermal coal have been raised reflecting increased demand due to the energy crisis in Europe.
Our reduced copper assumptions for 2022-2023 reflect a global economic slowdown and expectations of weaker demand in the short term compared with supply prospects, which we anticipate to lead to a small surplus in 2023, although the market is likely to remain tight. We expect small demand increases in China in 2022-2023 due to periodic lockdowns and a decline in the country’s construction sector, while consumption growth in other regions is only marginally higher than that in China. Nevertheless, medium-term prospects remain solid due to the energy transition accounting for 50% of growth in global copper demand anticipated over the next five years. Our medium- and long-term assumptions therefore remain unchanged.
We have cut the 2022 iron ore and coking coal price assumptions reflecting ytd pricing on lower steel demand, particularly in China, which leads to steel production curtailments and lower demand for steelmaking inputs, falling steel producers’ margins and build-up of iron ore inventories. At the same time, met coal supply has improved as Australian production recovered and Russian producers redirected some of their output from Europe to Asia. However, the market prices for met coal have bottomed out, while some hard coking coal producers started diverting sales to the thermal coal market, which benefits from high demand and pricing. However, our medium- and long-term views of the iron ore and met coal markets remain unchanged.
The lowered aluminium assumptions for 2022-2023 reflect changing market sentiments that lead to reduced prices in the short term, while market fundamentals and our longer-term assumptions are unchanged. Lower demand, particularly due to weaknesses of the Chinese construction market, will weigh on aluminium prices in the short term. However, rising energy prices could turn production in many markets loss-making, leading to curtailment and shoring up prices from further decline.
We have reduced zinc assumptions for 2022-2023 as inflationary and recessionary pressures and energy issues weigh on demand, while mine production remains flat, leading to market surpluses in the short term. However, price-elastic supply should support market rebalancing in the medium term.
All gold price assumptions remain unchanged, reflecting the metal’s ‘safe haven’ investment status amid high geopolitical instability and inflationary pressures. The market price has been moderating during most of 2022 in line with our expectations of interest-rate hikes, while the strong US dollar will continue pushing the price down. We expect gold prices to moderate in the longer term once geopolitical risks abate and as the interest-rate hiking cycle continues.
Our increased 2022-2025 assumptions for both thermal coal price benchmarks reflect strong demand, particularly from China, against the backdrop of higher energy prices, particular high European gas prices, leading to increased reliance on coal-powered energy generation. The increased price assumptions for 2024-2025 also incorporate higher coal mining costs and limited expected new capacity in the main producing countries. However, our long-term assumptions remain unchanged as consumption in China should gradually decline.
We have cut our nickel price assumption for 2022 reflecting subdued demand from the stainless steel sector, while production levels remain healthy, particularly in Russia and Indonesia. However, long-term demand from electric vehicle production should support longer-term prices.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 16 September 22
DRY BULK MARKET: EU’S BAN ON RUSSIAN COAL LIFTS DEMAND DESPITE ECONOMIC HEADWINDS - BIMCO
Highlights
– The Baltic Exchange Dry Index (BDI) peaked in late May and has since fallen sharply as lower Chinese demand and adverse glob ...
Friday, 16 September 22
BIMCO EMBARKS ON NEW STANDARD FOR “QUIET ENJOYMENT”
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
A newly set-up BIMCO drafting team involving a cross-section of shipowners, charterers, financing and leasing i ...
Friday, 16 September 22
INDIAN COAL PRODUCTION TO RISE 150 PER CENT IN 10 YEARS: CENTRE - EXPRESS NEWS SERVICE
The Union Ministry of Mines is expecting 150 per cent growth in coal production 10 years down the line as a result of coal reforms that had been us ...
Thursday, 15 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies agreed on a 100,000 b/d output cut last week, oil flows are in the spotlight ...
Monday, 12 September 22
COAL PRICE HIKE REMAINS DIFFICULT FOR CIL: CHAIRMAN TELLS ANALYSTS - PTI
Coal India on Thursday informed investors that increasing coal prices remains difficult in the current context when the economy is grappling with h ...
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The University of Queensland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
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